Yes, the Harrier is going next year.

As for 617, I suspect they are one of the “very safe” numberplates. I’m not sufficiently genned up on the seniority of the other Tonka sqns to offer which may be the first to go.

As for bases, there’s been a lot of hysteria in the press regarding the closure Kinloss and possibly Lossie. Hopefully that will be ignored (coincidentally, the RAF bases in Scotland have been very lucky in the last 30 years up until now), and the best basing solutions for the service(s) will be found (IMHO, I suspect Lossie will be safe long term, although maybe have a period of a year or two without aircraft with the preparation for JCA(F-35)).