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F/A-18 to go out of production in 2016?

With current orders F/A-18 production is scheduled to end in 2016. Boeing needs to make a decision on continuing F/A-18 production in 3 months’ time due to the need to invest in long lead items. It seems unlikely that any further orders will be received in the next 3 months, so what will Boeing do?

Boeing is also promoting sales of the warplanes to the USN, Canada, Denmark, Brazil, Malaysia, Kuwait and several other Middle Eastern countries, but executives concede that there is no Navy budget for more planes and several of the foreign competitions have been delayed.

Cessation of F/A-18 production would heighten USN reliance on F-35 panning out as planned. Would it not be wise for the USN to order more? F/A-18 is offered to USN at a price of $51-52 million per plane, including engines, radars and electronic warfare equipment – far less than the cost of F-35. Disappearance of the F/A-18 would leave Brazil without the choice of a low cost twin as well as a low cost single and a high cost twin. Assuming Canada would choose a US supplier, it would leave the country with no bargaining power against LM. ME countries wanting a twin would be left having to choose between the more expensive Eurocanards.

What do you think will happen? Will Boeing take the risk of ordering long lead items in the hope that they will get an order allowing production to continue 2016 onwards? Will the US government come up with funds so the USN can order more to cover the risks associated with banking on F-35 being available when required?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/09/us-boeing-fighter-idUSBRE9B815R20131209

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-confident-over-additional-us-navy-fa-18-orders-393979/

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