Fictional thread. Follow up from 'Your COIN Airforce'

While looking around at what is publically released regarding procurement deals following up on the earlier ‘$2bn for COIN’ thread it became apparent that, despite the oft-heard outcry of how much defence equipment costs today, $2bn was actually still an awful lot of cash in procurement terms – provided you are not in the game of projecting power or insistent on 5th gen stealth for the toilet seats in your swing-wing intercontinental nuclear penetration bomber of course!.

I was genuinely suprised at just how much could be brought in for that amount and, largely due to an interminable 9hr train journey today and a serious need for diversion, its raised a question in my mind about how far $2bn would actually go towards modernizing the armed forces of a modest state with legitimate defensive and resource/economic taskings.

Politics always complicates this sort of assessment and rightly so, because defense never exists in a vacuum, but, in context of this type of thread, this reliably degenerates into someone saying ‘well that would never happen’ and so endeth debate. To avoid this complication the mythical country of Durango is a home for a little thought exercise:

No prizes for recognizing the landmass in reality!. Durango, as pictured, is an economically viable former, SE Asian, British colony that was granted independence in the early 70’s. In terms of population size, education and societal development it is on par, though slightly larger, with similar sized developed nation states like New Zealand. Following independence a period of political and civil instability resulted in an army-led popular socialist uprising. For most of the 70’s through to the late 90’s Durango was run by an alternating, but mostly benign, mix of military and civilian rule all loosely aligned with the USSR then Russia. This relationship had been in steady decline since the early 90’s and all military and economic benefits were curtailed fairly early on. Since the early 2000’s democracy and capitalism has caught the public imagination and free trade, free press and predominantly free elections are quite the fashion.

Geopolitically, as the map shows, Durango sits offshore of two neighbouring continental states. The Federal Dylan Republic (FDR) and the Peoples Republic of Bob (PRB). The FDR is a conservative democratic society aligned, but not allied, with the SEATO states. It sees commercial opportunity and enhanced security of its maritime supply/trading routes, in Durango, and is keen to develop the relationship between the two states. Historical antipathy and regular, if well spaced, disputes about fishing and mineral resource exploitation rights, that remain very much unresolved, make this far from a sure course though.

The PRB is a socialist autocracy and former friend-of-my-friend ally during the USSR client state years. The governing regime is now just short of overtly hostile owing to the recent political and economic strides taken and the impact, of Durango’s quality of life improvements, on their own populace. Territorial claims over EEZ activities have also been genuine friction points in the relationship between the two states and have resulted in naval standoffs on a number of occaisions that have been increasing in belligerence.

Strategically Durango is in a noteworthy spot hence the erstwhile Soviet interest. A position along the principle SE Asian trade sealanes (red) and the oil routes from the Persian Gulf to Japan tempted them into negotiating overflight and, limited, operational rights. To support this Soviet forces improved two elderly airfields for operations by AV-MF heavies, one in the north and one south, the facilities remain and are kept operational. A substantial deepwater port facility on the south coast has existed since colonial days and is the country’s primary reception point for oil and gas – also the home of the main naval base which is also substantial and able to support vessels up to light fleet carrier size with ease.

Militarily Durango is presently in an unenviable position. Its two neighbours are both easily in the regional superpower bracket and both have comprehensively equipped armed forces. FDR is a traditional French client state and operates a strike fighter fleet primarily based around 80 Rafale with another 20 naval variants assigned to a naval air arm deploying to a single, refurbished, former Marine National CV. This being the centrepiece of a fleet possessing comprehensive AAW and ASW capability and a modest submarine service deploying a small number of Scorpene SSK’s.

Pride of PRB’s armed forces are a, recently delivered, package of 48 Su-30MK2’s and 16 Su-34’s reinforcing 80 MiG-29A’s and two dozen or so remaining Fencer-M/MR. Its naval service is primarily setup for sea denial with more than a dozen Kilo and Tango class SSK’s and two dozen Tarantul-III class boats in two squadrons. Blue water capability is centered around a modest collection of Udaloy-II and Pr.1154 hulls. A new development has recently come to light in that the PRB has ordered 8 Zubr class assault hovercraft for delivery within the next 36 months. The implications of a fast landing capability in a potential aggressor states inventory has led to sudden desire to overhaul the Durango armed forces.

The task is then with $2bn, solely for equipment procurement, to establish a comprehensive defence capability air, land and sea if it is so decided. This capability has to be able to deter and oppose potential aggression from a continental neighbour for long enough to allow the UN to get involved also it must ensure the integrity of the nations EEZ. One small bonus is that radar surveillance has been deemed an immediate national priority and a series of 6 L-88A aerostats has been ordered from the US in a deal separate to this procurement round. The current state of Durango’s order of battle, in major equipment terms, is as follows:

Army

8 brigades
2 armoured – PT-76B/2S9/Scorpion/Saladin
5 Infanty – 3 mechanised, BTR-60, BMP-1, Saxon; 2 motorised;
1 Air Assault Bttn
1 independent artillery – D-30/RM-70
2 Coastal Defence battalions – 4 batteries each Rubezh/P-15, M-46

Airforce

12 MiG-23BN
9 L-39
6 An-26
4 Shorts 330UTT
6 Mi-14
24 Mi-8

Navy

2 Pr.1159TR Koni class FF
3 Osa-II FAC(M)
5 Stenka class FAC/ASW
5 Castle class OPV(H)

Aside for the $2bn limit everything else is open to interpretation. You want to split the money equally between S-300 batteries and naval mines you have probably achieved territorial security, but, may find yourself vulnerable to a naval blockade from one party or another etc. You want to spend $20mn sending BMW’s to the PRB leadership to make nicey nice…whatever!. I, genuinely, haven’t got a clue whether this is even the slightest bit sensible as a prospect but it will be interesting to see what comes back if anything!. Also how long it takes for the first wise-a$$ to say that the answer involves Arleigh Burke class destroyers and PAK-FA’s or that they would pocket the $2bn and skip off to St Kitts!.