After its extended gestation, the LCA appears to be moving towards a position where it can offer a credible alternative to the F-16/Gripen as a light fighter.
If I remember correctly, the F-16 has notched up several thousand export orders. Many of these will need replacement over the course of the next 20 years. Some countries selected the JSF as an affordable replacement but the cost of the JSF has risen substantially. I suspect the roughly $40 million original price tag is likely to have risen to roughly $100 million by the time customers actually sign contracts, turning what was to be a “cheap” sophisticated fighter into a much more expensive acquisition. Crucially the ability to integrate indigenously developed systems will not be available due to LM/US govt refusing to supply the necessary software code.
I see a world market (excluding countries producing their own fighters) for many hundreds, perhaps even 1-2 thousand low cost, sophisticated, lightweight fighters in the next 10-20 years. The only low cost candidate that I see is the LCA.
I suggest that India should define the Tejas MkII with a view to it becoming the Mirage/F16 in the 2015-2030 era. I think that it is far more important to design an aircraft with massive export potential than it is to design an aircraft to suit the requirements of the IAF. Providing it is an adequate MiG21 replacement (and it is already much more than that), I think the GOI should take the view that the IAF will have to “make do” with what will sell on the world market.
I also suggest that the Tejas could be offered with 2 distinct engine options: say an EJ200 with thrust vectoring and (if and when realised) an adequate domestically produced engine.
I hope the GOI will take the strategic decision to invest heavily in the Tejas to get itself a place in the world fast jet market. Such an opportunity may not occur again in the foreseeable future.
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January 5, 2010 at 9:31 am