Future world tanker market

Most AAR tankers in the world at the moment are KC-135s, with the KC-130 second, & the rest divided between an assortment of converted airliners (Boeing 707, DC-10, Tristar, VC-10) & military freighters (Il-76, Transall), plus a few variants of the E-3/707/C-137 family.

Much of this fleet is getting old. We now (barring Congress or a Boeing lawsuit blocking it) know who has the biggest replacement contract, & some others are also settled, but there are still potential sales up for grabs (see below). What opinions do you all have on the likely winners? And what about potential new customers?

Current new-build contenders are the A330 MRTT, the KC-767, Il-76/78, KC-130J, A400M, & (if it goes ahead) the C-390, which Embraer says it would fit for AAR (“KC-390”), but some customers (e.g. Chile) have bought secondhand airliners for conversion (A310 in this case), & other small operators may follow suit, with the A310 & B767 being the obvious choices, but other airliners (e.g. A300) also being possible candidates for conversion.

New aircraft bought or selected, or current fleet not needing replacement for some time –

USA – KC-45/A330 & KC-130J
Canada – A310 – plus KC-130J to replace KC-130H?
UK – A330 (and A400M?)
France – A400M (ex-Transall), probably A330 to replace KC-135
Italy – KC-767 (ex-B707) & KC-130J
Germany – A310 & A400M
Spain – A400M (ex-KC-130) – plus A330 to replace B707?
Russia – Il-78
Ukraine – Il-78
Algeria – Il-78
Libya – Il-78
Saudi Arabia – A330 (ex-KE-3)
UAE – A330
Australia – A330 (ex B707)
India – Il-78
Japan – KC-767
Malaysia – KC-130 to be replaced by A400M?
Pakistan – Il-78
Chile – A310 (ex-B707)
S. Africa – B707 to be replaced by A400M?

I’ve only found confirmation of A400M refuelling kits being ordered by France, Germany & Spain, but it would be logical for other purchasers with a requirement to replace KC-130 or other tactical tankers to buy kits. Ditto with the KC-130J, where I’ve only found AAR versions ordered by the USA & Italy, but it would be logical for Canada (& any other purchaser) to replace its KC-130H with KC-130J.

No new purchase yet decided –

Netherlands – 2 KDC-10
Sweden – KC-130
Turkey – KC-135
Iran – B707 & B747
Israel – B707 & KC-130
Morocco – B707 & KC-130
Indonesia – KC-130
Singapore – KC-135 & KC-130
Argentina – KC-130
Brazil – KC-130 & KC-137 (probably KC-390 if built)
Colombia B707
Peru – B707
Venezuela – B707?

Omega Air (civil) B707

China – ordered Il-78, but there seems to be a problem with the contract.

Other potential customers –

S. Korea?

Any others? Any I’ve missed? Any I’ve got wrong?

[Edited to add Netherlands, & Peter Gs information about Malaysia & S. Africa]
[Edited for additions & corrections]