since the orriginal post has now been locked due to the new rules, i am starting another subthread to post these news reports 😎
Australian Air Power Controversy: F-35 and Super Hornets Under Fire
In “Retired RAAF Vice-Marshal: Abandon F-35, Buy F-22s (updated),” DID covered the controversy over the F-35A Lightning II’s suitability for Australia’s strategic needs, amidst a flurry of criticism from opposition party critics, the media, and even retired military officials. Australia’s government went ahead and signed the F-35 Production MoU, which doesn’t commit them to buy the aircraft just yet. Then it went ahead and submitted a USD $3.1 billion order without a competition process for 24 Super Hornets, in order to address Australia’s air capability gap until the F-35As arrive.
Controversy continues in Australia regarding the government’s plan to purchase the F-35 Lightning II as its next-generation fighter, and it has now spread to target the sudden F-18 E/F Super Hornet Block II purchase as well. Australia’s government has faced widespread criticism, and has begun to respond. The latest tiff involves an article in Australia’s The Age newspaper that disagreed with the Australian government’s cost assurances, an issue DID had explained in the March 7/07 version of this article. In response, the Australian government has published a response that raises the aircraft’s admitted average per-unit cost by tens of millions of dollars above the overall F-35 program averages the government had previously quoted. Pentagon documents, meanwhile, place the figure for Australia’s initial buys higher still – and DID explains it all….
SU-30: overmatch?
(click to view full)Issues of procurement protocol are playing into these debates, as are regional purchases of superior SU-30 family of long-range air superiority and strike fighters. So, too, are issues surrounding range concerns in light of Australia’s airpower doctrine, which forms the linchpin of its national defense and relies on deep-patrol and deep-strike capabilities backed by regional air superiority.
Air Power Australia has links to the flurry of recent media coverage.[1] See also Google News coverage (while it lasts).
Some government documents arguing aspects of their case have come to light since this article was originally published.
F-15E Strike Eagle
(click to view full)While outside analysts like Stratfor noted the F/A-18’s shortcomings and proposed longer-ranger F-15E Strike Eagles with higher ordnance capacity as a better F-111 replacement, Defence Minister Nelson argued in a speech to the Australian Defence Magazine conference that the F-15 lacks the requisite stealth, and has insufficient commonality with the current Hornet fleet and weapon set:
“The reality is the F-15 is about 30 to $40 million more expensive than the Super Hornet. It is approaching the end of its life. It also has a low observable profile which is not attractive to our country’s needs. It also has limited transferability in terms of weapons. We are a Hornet country.”
With respect to the F-22A, he said:
“…We still expect the US military however to acquire about two and a half thousand of the aircraft in contrast to the 183, or thereabouts, F-22s that they will have. We are not prepared as a country of 20 million people requiring a hundred aircraft to sign on for 20 per cent of the global on costs of an F-22, and knowing that as brilliant an air-to-air combat aircraft that it is, that it is not specifically the right aircraft for Australia.”
Other than cost issues, he did not elaborate further on why the F-22 was not right. That argument was taken up at a different speech by Air Vice-Marshal John Harvey, the Director General New Air Combat Capability, on Feb 22/07:
F-35 JSF
(click to view full)”The Joint Strike Fighter has a wider range of sensors. It can carry larger weapons, a wider range of weapons and a total carriage of more weapons than the F-22.
I guess those who ask the question… there’s been discussion in the press again about why shouldn’t we just have an all F-22 fleet. I think it’s pretty obvious if the F-22 could do everything, the USAF wouldn’t need the JSF as well. So they recognise the F-22 can’t do everything.
AVM Harvey is correct in citing the F-35’s larger weapon capacity and variety, and the “network effect” of so many aircraft in service with so many countries means that the F-35A’s weapon variety advantage is likely to grow over its service life. The rest of that quote badly misunderstands, or misrepresents, the actual US debate and procurement approach behind the F-22A/ F-35 force mix.
The F-35A was designed to be a cheaper and less capable aircraft than the F-22A, one still good enough for the USAF’s general future needs but available in larger numbers. The tradeoff is found in less range, less maneuverability and combat speed, and less stealth. This less expensive aircraft would, it was imagined, provide the “low” in the “high-low mix.” This would offset (but not eliminate) a drastic shrinkage in projected TacAir numbers, owing to replacement aircraft costs that continue to rise faster than inflation. It is similar to the rationale that developed the F-16 in the 1980s as a less-expensive, less broadly capable counterpart to the F-15.
This has been a very well known and well understood public debate in the USA. The US choice was explicitly not about an F-22 that “can’t do everything,” unless one is talking about the carrier-capable F-35C or vertical-landing F-35B STOVL – variants which Australia is not proposing to buy. Indeed, the F-22A retains the USAF’s “Global Strike” missions alongside the B-2 stealth bomber, in order to attack targets whose defenses or range make other aircraft including the F-35 a marginal choice.
F-22A Raptor, ready
(click to view full)AVM Harvey added in his Feb 22/07 speech:
“And for those who argue that the F-22 would actually be a cheaper solution, again, you can ask the question did the USAF plan to buy ten times as many JSF as they do F-22s.
Our assessment is the F-22 costs around twice as much as the Joint Strike Fighter and that assessment was supported by a recent ASPI report.”
Here is the exact ASPI report that AVM Harvey cites: “The generation gap: Australia and the Super Hornet.” Like many other recent ASPI publications, it was not a favorable review of the DoD’s plans.
With respect to cost, that comparison is likely to be true if measured over a program’s lifetime, but the AVF’s lack of specificity hides some critical facts one must know in order to understand defense procurement.
F/A-22 CutawayWhen buying weapons, average production cost may not be what a buyer pays – especially if they propose to buy during the much more expensive Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) phase, as Australia does with its intended F-35A delivery date of 2013. For instance, let’s say that 3,000 F-35As are produced. That number could include 80 LRIP aircraft averaging $110 million each, another 500 early production phase aircraft at an average of $75 million each, followed by 2,500 more aircraft at an average of $50 million each2. Total average F-35A cost in this scenario: $55.6 million – but some buyers would have paid less, and others would have paid double.
The F-22A, meanwhile, has been cited for average costs of anywhere from $180 – $330 million. Its program manager cites a current production cost of about $137 million per plane (flyaway cost), as opposed to the $170 million cited by ASPI. Maj. Gen. Richard B.H. Lewis adds that costs could drop to $116 million each if another 100 F-22s were ordered.
It should be added that global weapon cost, as opposed to production cost, includes program R&D costs. This explains the stratospheric $330 million per F-22 figures, based on 183 F-22s bought instead of the 700-800 originally planned. It is therefore not technically accurate for the Minister to say with certainty that Australia would assume 20% of global F-22 costs, since export buyers typically pay a figure much closer to production cost. They may pay for modifications, however; a factor the Minister did not cite in support of his case, but which would almost certainly be required for the requisite “downgrades” before F-22A export approval would be given.
DID has placed links to these recent government speeches, third-party reports, et. al. among the comprehensive readings set from our earlier article, which has materials from each side of the Australian debate and from 3rd parties.
Updates
July 9/07: The cost per aircraft controversy returns like a recreational boomerang, as an article in Australia’s The Age Newspaper places the total per-aircraft cost at A$ 131 million in order bring each aircraft to full readiness for operational service. “Jets dearer than admitted” also explains the difference between “flyaway cost” to roll another aircraft out the door, and the “average procurement unit cost” which includes documentation, training, support systems and initial spares.
July 9/07: In response, the Australian government’s “JSF: Setting the Record Straight” says that:
“The estimated average flyaway cost for Australia’s JSF aircraft is currently estimated to be about $A80 million. Total project costs, however, will also include the acquisition of facilities, spares, initial training, support systems and weapons.
Typically the cost of these broader project elements adds about 50 per cent over the cost of the acquisition of aircraft, providing an approximate per aircraft total cost of around $A120 million.
For a fleet of 100 aircraft this would mean a total project cost of around $A12 billion which is well within the project cost published in the 2007 Defence Capability Plan of $A11.5 to $A15.5 billion.
The specific numbers used here are for illustrative purposes only.
The New Air Combat Capability project team is conducting very detailed analysis of costs leading up to a Second Pass decision on the JSF in late 2008.”
Note that A$ 80 million is still significantly higher than the USD $45-55 million (USD$ 55.0M currently = A$ 63.7M) officials had quoted in response to previous questions. As noted above, however, these costs will not be constant throughout Australia’s buy. Pentagon documents show that low-rate initial production (LRIP) F-35As bought in 2013, which is when Australia wants to begin buying aircraft, would cost USD $108.8 million each as the flyaway cost, and reductions or delays in American LRIP buys would increase that figure.
Sign In
July 10, 2007 at 11:56 am