Supplement to Xanadu's post- PLAAF Part 2- how many 4th gen fighters in service?

In any attack scenario on TW, I think we need to come to a conclusion about how many 4th generation fighters China can field, and how many junky planes they still have left. Please keep this discussion flameless.

First of all, in last week’s AW&ST, there was an article about China updating her arms. Rick Kamer mentioned that the estimate of 100 some 4th generation fighters was only estimating some 30% of the true number. Am I to believe that the PLAAF has some 300 4th gen fighters? That number seems a little high.

Looking at crobato’s posting on C-D.com, we have this many fighters so far: Please correct me if I’m wrong.

+50 Su-27s (including UBKs) in contract in 1990-1995
-3 irreparably damaged in typhoon
+1 donated by Russians to replace those damaged in typhoon
+2 J-11s made in Dec. 1998
+28 Su-27UBKs in 1999
+40 Su-30MKKs in Aug. 1999
+21 J-11s assembled in 2000
+40 Su-30MKKs in 2001 (38 or 40? Let’s say 40 for now)
+20 J-11s assembled in 2001
+10 J-10s assigned to Su-27 sq. in Aug. 2002
——————————————————————————–
+60 Su-30MKK2/MKK3s to be delivered in the next few years
+40? J-11s to be completed in 2003 year since production is
ramping up.

So, discounting the 40 J-11s and MKK2/3 deals which haven’t been delivered yet, we’re looking at about 209 4th gen fighter aircraft, add to that the 100 planes that may be delivered in a few years, and we’re looking at well over 300 planes. Of course, a good chunk of these are UBKs, and would UBKs actually fly combat missions?

So next up would be, how many J-8II modifications are there, we’ll count these as 3.5 generation planes. Estimated about 70 J-8IIDs (CMA) and an odd assortment of 8-Fs, and H-s. Can the IIDs be easily converted to the F/H designation? That would make them much more capable of BVR combat.

As for the old JH-7s, there are 18 of the old batch, and 18 of a new 02 batch. So in total, we’re looking at a mix of about modern and older 300+ fighters/bombers.

Now we need to consider the ROCAF at present, and what they are capable of deploying.