Kanwa: SU-30MKK2 and Kh-31A AshM

New articles from Kanwa. Fair Use Notice.

Please note that there are many different interpretations with regards to the China’s SU-30MK2/MK3 upgrade and its numbers as both Sukhoi and the PRC aren’t talking so much. These articles are no exception (Richard Fisher, JEDonline, Janes, Flight International, A&STW, all have different interpretations on this subject, among others.)

Some sloppy editing on the article, e.g. “sub-supersonic”.

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KH31A’S THREAT UPON THE US AIRCRAFT CARRIER BATTLE GROUP

After China imported KH31A ASM, the Taiwanese Navy had to develop more advanced short range CIWS. Even if the ship-borne radar detects the on-coming KH31A with M2 speed at a distance of 21km, it has only 30 seconds reaction time. If the detection is at a distance of 14km, the reaction time is then 20 seconds, and at the distance of 7km, the reaction time will only be 10 seconds! The designed reaction time of the latest upgraded Western CIWS is 4-4.2 seconds, thus theoretically, it will have substantial intercepting capacity. In practical warfare terms, the general appraisal of the West on CIWS is that it would be considered quite successful if the reaction is as long as 7 seconds. Calculating on the basis of these 7 seconds, KH31A is already just 4.9km away from the targets. If taking into consideration that one MKK2 carries 6 KH31A, and MKK2s launches saturation attacks upon the same targets, it will be of no use however fast or accurate the CIWS may be. In the course of attacking the two US aircraft carrier battle groups, suppose each warship is armed with two CIWS systems at each direction (totally 2-4 sets), the total CIWS systems deployed on the 4 cruisers and 8 destroyers will be 28. A single time saturation attack of 7 MKK2s with 42 KH31As from the same way can guarantee that at least one KH31A will strike the US warship. When launching against the Taiwan task force fleet, the situation will be basically the same. Even if the intercept at the last 1-2 seconds is successful and the KH31A is hit at the distance of 1,400-700m, its high-speed movement and disintegrated pieces may very likely cause damage to the US or Taiwanese warships.

These vessels will perhaps have to withdraw from the battle because of this. In this sense, the most effective timing for CIWS to destroy KH31A is the third second from the count down bottom, in other words, just one second long. With China’s import of KH31A and MKK2, the US and Taiwan military may have to put on their agenda the deployment of more CIWS systems on their battle ships.

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DEPLOYMENT OF SU30MKKS POSES CHALLENGE TO TAIWAN’S ADVANTAGE

China’s import of SU30MKK2s specifically deployed in the Navy Aviation Force will greatly impact the military balance in the Taiwan Strait, especially the control of the air and waters in this region. In this regard, the influence is greater than all the other weapon systems China has so for imported, including SU27SK, SU30MKK1. MKK2 is still the most powerful anti-ground and anti-ship attacker that other East Asian countries do not possess.
The total number of 24 SU30MKK2 fighters is already equivalent to the air strike power of a US aircraft carrier battle group. Obviously, the motive of the Chinese Navy Aviation Force to import the first batch SU30MKK2 surely includes centralizing the deployment of these fighters at time of war, aiming at posing practical threat to the US aircraft carrier task force. Consequently, it is inevitable for China to import the second or third batch of SU30MKK2 or even MKK3 navy fighter-bombers. An article carried in Chinese military journal openly claimed, “The most effective approach of strike at time of war is to eliminate the enemy’s warships right in the enemy’s harboring port.” It can be easily concluded that the MKK2s deployed in the Bei Hai Fleet (North Sea Fleet) will have the capability to launch assaults against the US Navy’s bases in the region. In respect to the 1,500km combat radius of SU30MKK2, it has the ability to launch preemptive attacks against Taiwan’s military ports on the eastern side of the island.

First of all, China’s anti-radiation attack power will be reinforced. Kh31P has formally put into application in the military. In the past few years, China has tried its best to transfer the technology of this anti radar weapon and named it YJ91, hoping that it can be loaded on the upgraded JH7A.

Secondly, with SU30MKK1 doing the covering missions, MKK2’s strike power against the US aircraft carrier battle group will be greatly strengthened. Although 24 MKK2 is only a limited number, their attack power against the enemy target is phenomenal. According to the standard of the fighters, it can once carry 6 KH31A 70km-range air-to-ship missiles. If firing at the same time, the total 144 supersonic air-to-ship missiles can surely launch a saturation bombing against the targets. As to the Taiwanese Navy, this one-time strike can be enough to destroy a complete task fleet.

In addition, the import of SU30MKK2 will also greatly upgrade the Chinese Navy Aviation Force’s super view-range anti-ship strike power. Kh59MK sub-supersonic air-to-ship missile may very likely be introduced to China later. Kh59MK has an effective range of 285km. For 300 square meters or plus targets on the sea, its range is 145km. Kh59MK and Kh31A can jointly establish a multi-layered attacking structure against enemy targets.