More or less the cleaned up version with some late minute additions and corrections from people who provided constructive suggestions. Special thanks to Xinhui, Penlung, Hui Tong, Alfa, Sammie and to everyone in the CMF, CDF, AFM, and ACIG forums.
**Notice and Disclaimer**
The author does not work with any intelligence agency or think tank, or presume to have any inside information on the PLA, Sukhoi or the Chinese government. All information on this piece was formed from data available in the public and in the Internet through news reports and forum discussion, and whatever was unavailable was speculated based on the most logical and sensible alternatives. Any data here will be subjected to updates and correction in light of further revelation and new information.
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For nonprofit use only.
A Timeline of Events
1991 24 SU-27SK and -UBK aircraft. All -SK aircraft are built by KnAAPO, and all -UBK aircraft by IAPO. In addition to No. 25 and 26, No.1, 2, 3 and 4 are UBKs. The cost for the SK is approximately $32 million while the UBK is about $35 million. These early deals were paid in barter, such as clothes and tinned goods, which according to RAND, represented about 65% of the total value.. Or if based on a bilateral agreement, deals were conducted with 50% on A50 currency, where this currency is can only be used to purchase Chinese goods. There is criticism about a said requirement that planes and engines must be returned to Russia for overhauls, but it appears to be an interim requirement, as China lacked the facilities to perform such during that time, and in the quality standards required. Maintenance and overhauls will be conducted on Chinese soil when the proper infrastructure is built.
1992 June. Delivery of first batch, 8 SU-27SKs and 4 SU-27UBKs. PLAAF pilots enter 18 month intensive training course.
1992 November. Delivery of 12 SU-27SKs, plus two complementary SU-27UBKs for pilot and technician training (No. 25 and 26.)
1995 22 SU-27SK aircraft, 6 of which are SU-27UBK two seaters. There are two complementary aircraft, marked No. 49 and No. 50. This makes a total of 50 aircraft in the first two batches, confirmed by photograph of SU-27SK PLAAF serial number No. 49 and No. 50. One report says a number of these aircraft may have Zhuk-27 radar for testing purposes. Unlike the first order, it now appears the second batch includes Sorbatsya ECM pods, presumably a new version.
1996. License to manufacture 200 planes signed. The cost of the license was said to be $2.5 billion, of which $600 million was for knocked down kits, technical documentation and training. The license is for 15 years, at an average of 10-15 aircraft a year. Some reports say 150, others 250, even 300, but the most popular quoted number is 200. Yet this number may not be a fixed one, but an educated guess, and it should be noted there is no confirmation on the final number of the license. According Jane’s and Chinese website reports, this was said to be the -SMK variant. However, production turned out to be the basic -SK variant, although Chinese websites and internet posters continue to refer to the license as -SMK.. It may have been possible that China bought the SU-27 license at the SMK level for technological headroom for upgrades in the future. Provisions of this license include 70% maximum local content, 30% minimum Russian content. Engines license is not granted and have to be procured from Russia. No second export is not allowed. Any changes in the specification or improvements must be notified to the Sukhoi bureau including both new build and existing aircraft. If production numbers are not attained, China can exercise an option for Russia to build the SU-27s. China will set up maintenance facilities for the engines and planes, where as previously it had to send the planes or engines to Russia for overhaul. Knocked down kits were to be initially supplied by KnAAPO, of which the number was reported to be 80. Pressing concerns with the Taiwan issue meant that production rates per year would be raised later.
1997 April. About 14 SU-27s were seriously damaged in a typhoon. Three were irreparably damaged. One report, needing verification, says that the aircraft was replaced for free, presumably from the Russians’ own inventory, part of an expression of good will between Russia and China.
1998. Two test planes assembled and flew for the first time over Shenyang. But due to poor quality, had to be re-manufactured.
1999. July, a deal for 38 SU-30MKK was signed, with the approximate cost of each plane around $37 million. To be delivered in 2000-2001. Both SU-30MKK 501 and 502 prototypes displayed multirole capability and support for various missiles—R-77, R-27, R-73, Kh-31a, Kh-31p, Kh-59ME and Kh-29T. Many reports say the deal is 40 aircraft (consistent to 38 ordered plus two free), but there are other reports that contend it’s 45, and some even say 48 or even 50. The PRC required that KnAAPO be the executor of the contract, instead of IAPO which the Sukhoi has assigned SU-30 two seater construction. KnAAPO built the SU-27SK for the PLAAF but is only allowed to build single seaters. The assignment to KnAAPO showed the PRC being uncomfortable having the SU-30MKK built in the same IAPO plant where the SU-30MKI is being developed in partnership with India. KnAAPO has both offered the SU-30KI and the SU-37KK single seaters to China, but the choice of the SU-30MKK clearly reflected the PLAAF’s new emphasis on air to ground attack rather than air superiority, and its technological conservativeness against such Super Flanker features like TVC, canards and phased array, which would taken years to develop, raise the cost, and delay the deployment of the plane.
1999 July. 28 SU-27UBK deal signed, with each plane about $35 million. All -UBK orders are handled by IAPO, while -SK and -MKK orders are handled by KnAAPO. Delivery began in December 2000, with serial numbers #51 and above, with the completion of order in 2002, which may include two possible additional free aircraft for a total of 30. These aircraft featured an improved N001 variant (N001V?) that can simultaneously engage two targets with R-77s.. This deal reflects the insufficient numbers, attritional losses and training bottleneck from the insufficient numbers of the -UBK type.
1999 October. A number of SU-27s participated in the National Flag day celebrating the PRC’s fiftieth anniversary. Planes that participated in the event are marked with a red flag near the right side of the cockpit.
2000 Shenyang Aircraft Corporation begins serial assembly of SU-27, a.k.a J-11. 14 were presumably built by the end of the year. It is possible that these planes may be equipped with a modernized N001 radar that enables R-77 compatibility and simultaneous two target engagement.
2000 November. An SU-30MKK prototype was said to have been ceremoniously handed over at Zhuhai airshow. This could be “501″
2000 December. China receives the first 10 SU-30MKK from KnAAPO. These are equipped with the N001VE radar. Simultaneously 10 of the third batch IAPO built SU-27UBK with N001V were received and assigned to the Chengdu region.
2001 July. China signs contract for the second order of SU-30MKK, presumably 38 aircraft. Reports vary from 38 or 40. It was originally believed that the deliveries of this order was to begin on the end of 2003. Instead, delivery began on August 2002 with the first ten planes and to be completed by early to mid 2003. Once again, two free planes are possible.
2001 August. 10 more of the SU-30MKK received for the first order, representing the second batch. MAKS2001 held in Russia showing a third SU-30MKK “prototype” called “503″, whose unfinished paint condition suggests a serial production SU-30MKK on loan for publicity purposes as a replacement for “501″. “503″ first appeared along side with 502 in publicity photographs. After the show, presumably, 503 had its paint job completed and shipped as part of the 10 plane shipment in August or the 18 plane shipment in December. It is probable that “503″ may have been used to test the Zhuk-MS radar. “502″ may also have been handed over or currently still being used by KnAAPO as a test bed for improved SU-30MKK versions.
2001 August. Flight International revealed that the radar for the SU-30MKK would be changed to the Zhuk-MS in the third batch. The wording seemed confusing as to “batch” is defined per delivery, or per order. If per delivery, this would refer to the next 18 planes after the first two deliveries of 10 planes each. Or after the 20th plane, including an article on the Journal of Electronic Defense and Richard Fisher of the Jamestown Foundation. However, a year later, the announcement on third order was the first to announce to the general public the radar change. Whether this was merely belated news or a final admission, that’s subject to speculation as even the first SU-30MKKs already had Kh-31 capability.
2001 December. The last 18 SU-30MKK received from the first order and could be the first SU-30MKKs with the Zhuk-MS radar.
2001 Possibly 20 J-11s were finished for the year of 2001, adding to the alleged 14 in 2000.
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2002 March. Annual spring exercises may have showed the most frequent and most intensive use of the Flankers in exercises yet, including use of SU-30MKKs.
2002 May. CCTV held a celebration in honor of the Shenyang Aircraft Company right in TV. It appears to be a show celebrating not just SAC’s anniversary, but also for a job well done. This may imply satisfactory progress in meeting quality and quota standards, probably for the J-11 program—the show featured two newly built SU-27s on stage. Other than a “J-11A” mockup in a Shenyang display stand the year before, this was the first time China acknowledged domestic construction of the SU-27, and the first time such planes were ever seen up close. One report suggests that local content on the J-11 has reached as high as 60%. With increasing domestic content, the flyaway cost of the plane as volume increases, is expected to drop.
2002 June. There was an acceleration of production in SAC, XAC and CAC plants with full 24 hour shifts. This suggests a major effort to increase J-11 production rate to as high as 30 to 40 a year .
2002 July-August, China signs another contract for the third order of SU-30, now SU-30MK2, presumably a new navalized variant for the airborne arm of the Chinese Navy, the PLANAF. Possible upgraded variant at $45 million each. Delivery, probably with two complementary aircraft, was to commence in 2003. Reports differ from 28, to 38 or 40 aircraft. Reports also say Kh-31a capability and Zhuk radar, although such news seem belated as both features may already exist with previous aircraft. The mention of Phazotron may in fact be due that for the first time, the PRC strictly required in print that Phazotron be the required supplied for the radars, and to prevent any arbitrary change by the Russian government or the Sukhoi AKPG. If following previous patterns of orders, this may be for 38 aircraft, with two possible additional gift/evaluation planes. Due to Russian scandals involving assignment of the contracts, the PRC specified in black and white the preferred contractors for the third order, mainly KnAAPO for the builders and Phazotron for the radar.
2002 July-August. First reported test of R-77s fired from SU-30MKKs, even though R-77 purchase was first reported in 2000.
2002 August. The first 10 of the second batch of SU-30MKK delivered, assumably based on Series 2.
2002 September. There were reports indicating that a Chinese software engineer has manage break the software for the SU-27’s fire control radar, a step forward either in reverse engineering the radar or adapting the use of local guided missiles to it.
2002 October. All weapons of the SU-30MKK were successfully fired and tested.
2002 November. Zhuhai air show. Interview with Sukhoi chief designer spoke of an upgraded version, the SU-30MKK2. Sukhoi also annonces intention to create an office in Beijing, working to improve support and looking for ward for more sales. Chinese reports indicate that local content of J-11 production has now reached 60% and trying to attain the pure 100%. It is likely that the content restriction may have been lifted to allow the entire plane made from indigenous components.
2002 November. IAPO completed deliveries of third order SU-27UBK.
2003 (All Year) Delivery of second SU-30MKK expected to be completed and third order delivery to begin, ending in 2004. 20-30 new J-11s will be completed as part of 2002 production and another 20-30 may be finished by the end of 2003.
2004 Local production of J-11/SU-27SK may end on the 80th aircraft, which can occur sometime in the year, giving way to a more advanced variant. Some reports presumed it may be SU-30MKK (J-11B? JH-11?), others an improved single seater variant (J-11A?) with SD-10 compatibility, multirole and midflight refueling capability that can serve as an interim version either to a fully domestic SU-27 or SU-30MKK license. Reports suggest SU-30MKK license could entail as much as 250 aircraft.
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December 2, 2002 at 1:47 am