The Ukranian Flanker crash: My theory

After some lengthy analysis of the video of the incident I am convinced that a mechanical failure of some kind ultimately brought it down. That’s failure IMO, was more than the likely the port engine.

Note 1

As the Su-27 pulls out of the dive at full military power (smoking engines) it levels out then pitches nose up to about 20-30 degrees with the rudders clearly but only partially deployed to the right, this happens about 30-40m off the ground IMO judging from the footage (position – ‘a’). I believe the pilot’s intention at this point was to turn right and fly away from the crowd and also from the camera position. This of course didn’t happen.

Note 2

From (‘a’) the Su-27 does not bank right at all in fact it starts to dip to the left from here. The rudders at this point are now fully deployed to the right, this is very easily seen when you pause step-by-step through the video, and clearly the pilot is trying to turn right. The dip to the left despite an effort to turn right could be explained by engine failure on the left side of the jet. If the port engine has failed here, its happened almost immediately after the Su-27 has pulled level out of the initial dive, as the dip to the left happens very quickly after (‘a’). At this point (‘b’), the Su-27 is still nose up, probably 20-25m altitude and heading toward the ground with the left wing now dipping about 20 degrees. With full throttle from both engines, I believe the pilot should have been able to pull out and avoid the ground

Note 3

From (‘b’) the Su-27 now approaches the trees. Here the rudders are still deployed to the right – fully. The dip to the left is now around 45 degrees, and this dip has developed very quickly, in the space of just several seconds, and all while the rudders should have been pulling the jet to the right! Was the pilot now trying to restore the jet level in an effort to correct the dip to the left because of an engine flameout?? I believe so. At this point (‘c’) the Su-27 has clipped the tree line and is now only about 10m off the ground, with a massive dip of around 45 degrees in the left wing.

Note 4

From (‘c’) until the initial impact of the left wing into the ground, the jet IMO does start to level out a fraction, but by now its way too late, and the pilots know this and have initiated ejection. Not clear to see however is the point at which the crew punch out, but I believe it was just before the jet hit something on the ground and cart wheeled into a fireball. The jet’s left wing tip can be clearly seen sliding along the tarmac for about a good 50m at least. This is where most of the crowd were killed I think as the wing cut through them like a lawn mower, hence the many dismembered bodies.

The pilot may have been performing this manoeuvre at an altitude that was too low perhaps and indeed toward the crowd which was dodgy to say the least, BUT I believe that he should have been able to pull out and fly away from it after point (‘a’) as the jet is pitched up and at least 30-40m above the ground. Engine failure at the instant would have meant he simply didn’t have the power pull out and climb back into a right hand turn. The resultant wing dipping to the left didn’t help and only hastened impact with the ground.

Regards, Glenn.