Cost to Russia for 5th Gen fighter

DEFENSE AND SECURITY May 6, 2002, Monday
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, April 29, 2002, pp. 1, 2
By Sergei Sokut

THE SUKHOI DESIGN BUREAU HAS BECOME THE MAIN EXECUTOR OF THE PROGRAM FOR CREATING THE FIFTH GENERATION FIGHTER. AIRCRAFT PLANTS, WHICH ARE TO PRODUCE
THIS WARPLANE IN THE FUTURE, REFUSE TO TAKE PART IN THE PROGRAM BECAUSE THE FIGHTER WILL NOT FIND A MARKET.

Mikhail Kasyanov held a meeting of the government commission for
military-industrial issues on April 26. The commission stated that the
Sukhoi design bureau was the winner of a tender to build the fifth generation fighter. The bureau has to prepare a design of the warplane by the end of the year and approve a program for creating the new warplane.

The meeting was preceded by a fierce combat. The government
commission had to announce results of the tender in late March, but members of the commission did not manage to reach an agreement. The military wanted to postpone the decision to the moment when projects submitted by the Sukhoi design bureau and
the MiG corporation would become more definite. The command of the Air Force and the Defense Ministry thought that there was no need to speed up creation of the new warplane. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who visited the Lipetsk combat training center on Friday, stated: “I am not worried by the condition of the air fleet of the Air Force in 2015-2020. I am worried about the situation
in the Air Force in 2005-2006.” The minister said that he is an opponent of
creation of new military hardware because “at first Russia must upgrade obsolete
military hardware so that the Air Force does not lose its air fleet in five or
six years time”.

The Ministry for Industry and Science and Rosaviacosmos have shown a
quite different policy. Their leaders said that Russia must speed up creation
of a new warplane and unite all designers under the control of the Sukhoi design
bureau.

The military addressed the president who commissioned Mikhail
Kasyanov with clearing up this matter. The prime minister has sided with the
ministries. The prime minister’s decision has been supported by Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Moskovskii, Chief of the Armament Service of the Russian Defense
Ministry, known for his relations with financial-industrial circles. Finance Minister
Kudrin, worried by numerous financial aspects of the decision made on Friday,
opposed the idea.

The meeting was held in private. The government did not permit
participants in the meeting, except Ilya Klebanov, to comment on its results. In
the meantime, the results of this “Last Supper” will produce effect on the
development of aircraft building in Russia, and it is hardly likely
that this effect will be positive.

It is hardly likely that the secrecy of the meeting is explained by
the necessity of keeping military secrets. The spectrum of elements of the
fifth generation fighter (engine, locators, weapons) is not vast, and foreign
analysts will easily figure out the image of the warplane. This warplane has two
main peculiarities: firstly, the warplane will be principally new, and
secondly, the warplane will not be light, which will limit its prospects on foreign
markets. The main problem is that the Russian aircraft industry has forgotten
how to create competitive products. The Sukhoi design bureau and the MiG
corporation have created the S-37 and MFI 1.44 fighters which were called “a
miracle of aircraft hardware”. In the meantime, the designers have not managed to
create serial models of these warplanes over the course of ten years. The
Su-35 and Su-37 fighters are losing one international tender after another, and
the company manages to launch serial production of warplanes created
according to the strictest requirements of the customers (the Su-30MKK and Su-30MKI)
who understand the difference between a good technical project and
successful rearmament program.

It should be noted that aircraft plants which will have to produce
the new warplane do not want to take part in the program under Sukhoi’s
conditions. The reason is simple: managements of these plants understand that the
fighter will not find a market in Russia or abroad. The Russian Air Force will be
able to buy only a few fighters a year, and India and China will focus on producing
the Su-27 and Su-30MK fighters under Russia’s licenses.

Russia cannot attract Delhi to the project because of superfluous
secrecy. In these circumstances, the program for creating the fifth generation
fighter faces a disastrous lack of money. For instance, creation of the Rafael
fighter (generation four) cost France $6 billion. The US has already allocated
$23 billion for creating the F-35 fighter (generation five). Experts say
that creation of the Russian warplane will cost $6 to $9 billion. In the
meantime, the budget can only allocate $1.5 billion. The remaining sum will be
taken from serial plants, on which the Sukhoi design bureau has already imposed
“a tribute”, which can be compared with taxes on gambling industry.
Experts say that aircraft plants will have to deduct a sixth of their export
revenues for realizing the program. It should be noted that the Russian legislation
does not regulate financial mechanisms for using weapons exports’ money for
paying for the state defense order. The lack of control over this money attracts
many lobbyists. Specialists say that the matter concerns $100 to $150
million a year,
which Moscow will “extract” from regions. It is no wonder that
ideologues of the program do not agree to create consortiums for creating the fifth
generation fighter due to the fact that investors and customers will be able to
control the use of the money.