The future of S.E.Asian stability

I can see that the thread I came up with when I first posted on this forum regarding Chinas carrier continues to get comments, so lets delve a little deeper into the pond. I don’t want this to be a China vs. ? thread, but more a projection on the balance of power in 2010, O.K?

Looking at Asian development at the moment, this is without doubt the most likely area for a large scale “hi tech” war. Outside of any alliance held together by the U.S., there are no REAL alliances in the region, anything is possible! So the question is this:

Who is going to be top dog in Asia eight years from now and why?

(Take into account all aspects of warfare such as Main Battle Tanks, Intelligence, Naval Fleets etc. etc. etc.)

In my own opinion:

Given its developments over recent years regarding land, sea and air combat capabilities and the “new approach” to warfare, China will stand a good chance of taking the crown from Japan (or even the U.S.).
Already we are seeing better technology entering widespread service within the PLA itself such as the Type 98 MBT, Z-9 and Z-11 combat helicopters and new assault rifles. The PLA is more than a match for Taiwan, North Korea, Mongolia, Phillippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos on the ground. Japan and South Korea are the only real opposition in the area (excluding U.S. forces in the region of course). Moral in the PLA is higher than it has ever been, with troops being better paid and trained.

The Peoples Liberation Navy is another force on the move, although it is still seen as a coastal force. If plans for the carrier do go ahead within the the few years and if Russian continues to supply such vessels as the “Kilo” and “Sovrenmeny” types, combined with improved designs of its own entering service, we will see a force to be reckoned with create itself. Most of this equipment will of course take time to put into widespread service – so 2010 is a “quick entry to service” date.

PLAAF force projection will be at its peak by 2010, the J-11 and J-13 should be in widespread service by then. The J-7 will of course still form the backbone of the PLAAF and Naval air assets, supported by small but increased numbers of the J-8II fighter. I do not think China would keep the H-5 or H-6 in active frontline service, given the capabilities of the JH-7 and J-13 aircraft (and who knows even the J-10 may be in small scale service). J-11 aircraft will no doubt under-go some sort of Chinese “upgrade” possibly to Su-35 standard with forward canards and full TVC. Continued Russian assistance will no doubt provide China with better technology for missiles and radars.

Possible U.S. intervention will be with held from any Taiwanese conflict given its past history in these matters (I state Quemoy as my support for saying this). International investment in China will have grown to a larger extent by then, giving China better international standing than Taiwan or South Korea, or maybe even Japan.

Okay, okay I know China was an obvious choice to pick, but if you agree or disagree…STATE YOUR OPINION.