Iranian LR SAM S-300 Look-alike

According to Wikileaks the Saudis hard-pressed the U.S.A to attack Iran “right now”. Arabs seems very afraid of the growing Iranian influence in the region and the Iranian nuclear program. Apparently the Americans refused the idea based on geopolitical stability calculus.

Iran is already supporting insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, i don’t think they mind US weakening the Taliban and Al-Q in Afghanistan, except for the fact that right now all they see around them are US military bases (Saudi, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.).

That’s basically untrue. Taliban are declared enemies of the Shiite Islam mostly practiced in Iran. In addition the Iranians performed some small scales punitive actions in Afghanistan after the Soviet retreat and before the NATO intervention. There is no way the Taliban to be considered Iranian puppets to perform a proxy war.

In Iraq, the situation is different. While Iran may economically support Shiite militias they are holding them as “strategic reserve” for asymmetrical answers just in case an American attack. So, they are likely providing arms and some degree of training but on condition to put them on hold to unchain at the “right time”.

On the Iranian population, even, considering the small Arab influx with the Islam, most populations seems to have preserved the Indo-European lineage. According Cavalli-Sforza (Genes, Peoples, and Languages) there is no significant genetic difference between Persians and Europeans. Interestingly the Arabs are not the most numerous minority. The most numerous minority is constituted by the Azeri (It is a people with a Turkic origin).

One thing we must all be sure is that Iran won’t be just siting there still after the bombs starts dropping.

To counter weak Iraqi army and virtually untrained Talibans US has to spend hundreds of billions dollars every year through out this decade and still they are not able to achieve the victory they planned at the start of war.

Fighting Iran whose strategy would be to do damage through offensive weapons like IRBMs and AntiShip missiles will have very bad impact on the already very venerable US and world economy which no one wants

no matter how much gulf government are against IRAN what would matter is who they are likely to support in time of war under pressure from their citizens Israel or Iran and i think we all know the answer

Israeli image of a powerful regional power capable of defeating its enemies will be hit hard if they stop at anything less then complete destruction of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure which seems impossible considering widely spread, underground and may be hardened nuclear-related sites. and they will have to do this with dozes of Missiles targeting their cities each day.

or Iran starts opens support to Iraqi or Afghan extremist in their fight against USA coz of their support to Israel.

Saudi to Israel: Clear for takeoff?

Israel would need USA with it from the start atleast or even more better if USA can do their dirty work for them alone

If USA starts dropping bombs over the nuclear energy and weapons sites there is nothing that Iran can do to stop them, this missile mock up will not help, and they don’t have to occupy Iran to do that.
Iran is already supporting insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, i don’t think they mind US weakening the Taliban and Al-Q in Afghanistan, except for the fact that right now all they see around them are US military bases (Saudi, Iraq, Afghanistan etc.).

Israel has a genuine concern for its survival from a Iran with Nuclear bombs, nations dont tend to care much when the choice is between a few dead pilots and several thousand dead civilians, infact i do not think the pilots will care much about their survival odds either, and the Israelis are known to have some very imaginative plans to handle tough situations. Again i dont think some conventional ballistic missiles or this SAM missile mock up will make them change their decision when the time comes.

…In fact Iranians don’t consider them selves true ARABs

That’s because they aren’t & never have been Arabs of any kind. You might as well say that Italians don’t consider themselves true Arabs.

Remember all those stories about Thermopylae, Marathon, & Alexander the Great? Well, the people the Greeks were fighting back then, 2300 to 2500 years ago, were Iranians. Persia has a long & proud history.

This would only be true if Iran did not attack U.S. bases in those countries.
Further more, Iran and the rest of the gulf are two types of islam, and do not get along. In fact Iranians don’t consider them selves true ARABs

Iranians aren’t Arabs, they’re Persians. It’s also highly unlikely that Saudi Arabia would side with Iran(though Syria might).

Agree with Jawad, its not possible for Israel to do this alone. In fact, I doubt if it actually took place, if they would participate. This may be more like Gulf War I. I hope it doesn’t happen though.

But any Iranian retaliation will draw the United states into the fray. This will be the large scale destruction of the Iranian military and its nuke program.
Do you think the U.S. will let Iran block the straights of Hormuz?
Further more S.A. the UAE and a host of other nations in the gulf dislike Iran almost as much as they dislike Israel. and will probably tolerate a Israeli strike. Havent you noticed the build up?

One thing we must all be sure is that Iran won’t be just siting there still after the bombs starts dropping.

To counter weak Iraqi army and virtually untrained Talibans US has to spend hundreds of billions dollars every year through out this decade and still they are not able to achieve the victory they planned at the start of war.

Fighting Iran whose strategy would be to do damage through offensive weapons like IRBMs and AntiShip missiles will have very bad impact on the already very venerable US and world economy which no one wants

no matter how much gulf government are against IRAN what would matter is who they are likely to support in time of war under pressure from their citizens Israel or Iran and i think we all know the answer

Israeli image of a powerful regional power capable of defeating its enemies will be hit hard if they stop at anything less then complete destruction of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure which seems impossible considering widely spread, underground and may be hardened nuclear-related sites. and they will have to do this with dozes of Missiles targeting their cities each day.

or Iran starts opens support to Iraqi or Afghan extremist in their fight against USA coz of their support to Israel.

Saudi to Israel: Clear for takeoff?

Israel would need USA with it from the start atleast or even more better if USA can do their dirty work for them alone

In fact, they are not Arabs; they are (mostly) Persians . Anyway this doesn’t negates the Iranian influence in the region, i.e. Shiite zones in Iraq and in Lebanon.

Okay this is only my analysis:

The problem is that if Israel launches the scale of attack required to totally neutralise Iran’s nuclear programme, Iran would have every justification to respond. We are not talking about one strike, we would be talking days of strikes, first neutralising the air defences and fighters, then destroying dedicated militarised nuclear research facilities, then the dual use facilities which house both civilian and military programmes, likely killing hundreds if not thousands of people, all right 90% will be military personnel but you can guarantee lots of civilian deaths as well.

Anything less will only result in short term impact on the programme and cement the Iranian government’s power base.

Full scale strike would result in the general population of the Gulf states baying for Israel blood, if countries like Saudia Arabia did not react in the right way there would be a real chance of their Government’s being overthrown and the Middle East become less secure due to Israel’s reaction and very certainly the US relations with the Gulf states would be very difficult.

This would only be true if Iran did not attack U.S. bases in those countries.
Further more, Iran and the rest of the gulf are two types of islam, and do not get along. In fact Iranians don’t consider them selves true ARABs

Okay this is only my analysis:

The problem is that if Israel launches the scale of attack required to totally neutralise Iran’s nuclear programme, Iran would have every justification to respond. We are not talking about one strike, we would be talking days of strikes, first neutralising the air defences and fighters, then destroying dedicated militarised nuclear research facilities, then the dual use facilities which house both civilian and military programmes, likely killing hundreds if not thousands of people, all right 90% will be military personnel but you can guarantee lots of civilian deaths as well.

Anything less will only result in short term impact on the programme and cement the Iranian government’s power base.

Full scale strike would result in the general population of the Gulf states baying for Israel blood, if countries like Saudia Arabia did not react in the right way there would be a real chance of their Government’s being overthrown and the Middle East become less secure due to Israel’s reaction and very certainly the US relations with the Gulf states would be very difficult.

This is obviously based on the assumption, that a) no-one is going to be able to defeat the F-35’s stealth, and that after Israel uses its 20 F-35’s in SEAD/DEAD missions that it can launch an all out air war for 3 -5 days to destroy every single part of the Iranian nuclear programme and survive the economic, military and political consequences.

Personally I think networked SAM sites, ground radars, passive sensor arrays and AWACs systems will mean that Israel will lose one or more F-35’s and if even one pilot is captured then Israel is playing a loosing hand due to the political capital it gives Iran. Does anyone know if the Geneva Convention holds if you are captured during a surprise attack without first declaring war?

I think that basically Iran has worked out that Israel is in a loose-loose position, the Iranian nuclear programme is too big to destroy without totally demolishing their armed forces. As a consequence Israel will either start to see net emigration from Israel due to fact that Iran has nukes, or if they carry-out the massive scale of air strike required to demolish the Iran nuclear programme completely they will turn the entire middle east hostile, and I doubt very much Europe is going to be pleased and the resultant mess (oil shortages, instability in the middle east, possibly several governments collapsing) will cause an economic crisis, which likely will result in the net emigration from Israel due to the economic dire straits of the country.

It will be “interesting” to see how a more assertive China plays things over the next decade, as they have been quietly extending their economic reach in Africa, are a lot more assertive in the Pacific, and have stated they want to expand their economic interests to South America.

But any Iranian retaliation will draw the United states into the fray. This will be the large scale destruction of the Iranian military and its nuke program.
Do you think the U.S. will let Iran block the straights of Hormuz?
Further more S.A. the UAE and a host of other nations in the gulf dislike Iran almost as much as they dislike Israel. and will probably tolerate a Israeli strike. Havent you noticed the build up?

For Iran if it is threatened with attacked by Israel an asymmetric response is by far the most effective deterrent! Israel can’t possibly hope to take out all those launchers targeted at their cities and the Persian gulf can be shut down for transit. Add to that Iraq will be stirred back up into a blood bath and a number of other Islamic countries would probably be pushed over the edge.

While I agree with this point, Iran shows every intention of trying to improve its air defences, the two reasons I can think of are 1) it intends to improve its fast jet fleet in the future with modern types and it wants to make sure the Republican Guard can shot down any Iranian Air force jets in case of a military coup or 2) Iran seriously thinks it can put up a credible air defence against an attack by Israel. Not sure given the current political situation 1) is possible, even if China was doing the selling, so I am leaning to reason 2).

the Persian gulf can be shut down for transit.

That reason alone will make most of the nations pressure all the parties involved to stop any possible conflict.

I still do not understand why Iran continues with the computer graphic missile launches and these pathetically fake surface to air missiles, they should atleast put more effort into making them look authentic instead of these welded in a village metal shop kits.

Iran knows full well that Israel can easily penetrate its air defences, that is the main reason Iran has focused its defence procurement on building mobile missile launchers for IRBM.

Iran has hundreds of mobile TELs for various short to medium range missiles. Further from that they have been producing significant numbers of antiship missiles, mines and torpedos.

For Iran if it is threatened with attacked by Israel an asymmetric response is by far the most effective deterrent! Israel can’t possibly hope to take out all those launchers targeted at their cities and the Persian gulf can be shut down for transit. Add to that Iraq will be stirred back up into a blood bath and a number of other Islamic countries would probably be pushed over the edge.

This is the main reason that Israel has not attacked Iran so far, the cost is too great. In the end the best solution for Israel now (and actually one quitely pointed out by US military officials) if Iran becomes a nuclear state is detterence via the promise of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

This is obviously based on the assumption, that a) no-one is going to be able to defeat the F-35’s stealth, and that after Israel uses its 20 F-35’s in SEAD/DEAD missions that it can launch an all out air war for 3 -5 days to destroy every single part of the Iranian nuclear programme and survive the economic, military and political consequences.

Personally I think networked SAM sites, ground radars, passive sensor arrays and AWACs systems will mean that Israel will lose one or more F-35’s and if even one pilot is captured then Israel is playing a loosing hand due to the political capital it gives Iran. Does anyone know if the Geneva Convention holds if you are captured during a surprise attack without first declaring war?

I think that basically Iran has worked out that Israel is in a loose-loose position, the Iranian nuclear programme is too big to destroy without totally demolishing their armed forces. As a consequence Israel will either start to see net emigration from Israel due to fact that Iran has nukes, or if they carry-out the massive scale of air strike required to demolish the Iran nuclear programme completely they will turn the entire middle east hostile, and I doubt very much Europe is going to be pleased and the resultant mess (oil shortages, instability in the middle east, possibly several governments collapsing) will cause an economic crisis, which likely will result in the net emigration from Israel due to the economic dire straits of the country.

It will be “interesting” to see how a more assertive China plays things over the next decade, as they have been quietly extending their economic reach in Africa, are a lot more assertive in the Pacific, and have stated they want to expand their economic interests to South America.

Any economic or military offensive behavior makes PRC a risk to trade with, at a time when they need to continue growth with more trade. They will prefer an Iran open to world trade, friendly towards its neighbors with no nuclear ambitions, more than they will like to prop up a anti-USA Iran.

As for Israel attacking Iran, they will do it even if it means that none of their planes can come back home (on account of fuel) and the pilots have to be recovered in the ocean, they have demonstrated they do not need stealth to defeat the air defence systems Iran possess, if Iran goes ahead with the nuclear weapons program even Russia will support Israel.

While Chinese contractors inside Iran might give the U.S. pause, Israel will not be deterd. Once they get F-35s nothing will stop them.

This is obviously based on the assumption, that a) no-one is going to be able to defeat the F-35’s stealth, and that after Israel uses its 20 F-35’s in SEAD/DEAD missions that it can launch an all out air war for 3 -5 days to destroy every single part of the Iranian nuclear programme and survive the economic, military and political consequences.

Personally I think networked SAM sites, ground radars, passive sensor arrays and AWACs systems will mean that Israel will lose one or more F-35’s and if even one pilot is captured then Israel is playing a loosing hand due to the political capital it gives Iran. Does anyone know if the Geneva Convention holds if you are captured during a surprise attack without first declaring war?

I think that basically Iran has worked out that Israel is in a loose-loose position, the Iranian nuclear programme is too big to destroy without totally demolishing their armed forces. As a consequence Israel will either start to see net emigration from Israel due to fact that Iran has nukes, or if they carry-out the massive scale of air strike required to demolish the Iran nuclear programme completely they will turn the entire middle east hostile, and I doubt very much Europe is going to be pleased and the resultant mess (oil shortages, instability in the middle east, possibly several governments collapsing) will cause an economic crisis, which likely will result in the net emigration from Israel due to the economic dire straits of the country.

That’s way too large an investment. They only need to provide just enough support to Iran to keep the country in the game, as a drain on US resources.

It will be “interesting” to see how a more assertive China plays things over the next decade, as they have been quietly extending their economic reach in Africa, are a lot more assertive in the Pacific, and have stated they want to expand their economic interests to South America.

Apart from the sanctions preventing this currently – I doubt very much China or Russia find Iran a particularly comfortable client and Iran is in a very weak bargaining position IMO and needs to be as self-sufficient as possible otherwise the end up paying money for goods they will never receive.

Of course if they really want to annoy the US they could sign an agreement with China to sell their oil exclusively to China at below OPEC rates, and give China sea, air and land basing rights, in return for say 6 new Type 056 Corvettes, 3 – 4 squadrons of JF-17 and a couple of regiment’s worth of advanced SAM’s such as the HongQi 9 which was “inspired” by the Patriot missile.

That’s way too large an investment. They only need to provide just enough support to Iran to keep the country in the game, as a drain on US resources.

The latest reports on the current Iranian air-defence exercises are saying that Iran’s S-300-class missile is a locally upgraded version of the S-200.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/151443.html

Right ….. :rolleyes:

S-200 missile (5V28V)
Weight 7 100 kg
Length 10.8 m

Lightest original S-300 missile (5V55K/KD)
Weight 1 450 kg
Length 7 m
Heaviest S-300 missile (48N6E2)
Weight 1 800 kg
Length 7.5 m

http://eng.rusbal.ru/list/40/1/

😀

pffffffffffffffff 😉

Don’t know if you guys have noticed Chinese warplanes visiting Iran.

Pictures depict Chinese Flankers in Iran, possibly a stopover after exercises in Turkey. The stopover would be interesting as the flankers would not need them between Turkey and China, so possibly also a diplomatic message. These are some of the rare images of Chinese warplanes outside of China and comes at a time when US, Western and Israeli militaries are building up a military, political and economic frenzy similar to the one before Gulf War II.

http://www.grandestrategy.com/2010/10/chinese-warplanes-in-iran.html

Thought it might help the debate here.

While Chinese contractors inside Iran might give the U.S. pause, Israel will not be deterd. Once they get F-35s nothing will stop them.