Ofeq-6's Launch Failed

http://in.rediff.com/news/2004/sep/10sat.htm

No I do not and regret the loss of the expensive satellite too. But your government and security services are using fear for own interests. External enemies become more important, when something is wrong inside. Questioning some security related items, does not mean less security for Israel. Maybe you have seen a pic taken by Ofeq 5, to judge the quality. The size and operational time is known, tracked by the internat. space agency. So physics gives a first clue about the quality possible. If it is >< 1 metre resolution, does not matter much. The best satellite can not look inside a building really. In many countries such orbital sensors are producing so much data, that there is not enough personal to extract all usefull informations from that. When a new Ofek 6/7 comes ready in a year from now, there is no security gap really, but it helps to free new money faster.

How could I forgot. The Ofeq 5 or 6 are better. The Europeans do that business for decades. Hubble is a K-11 looking into the opposite direction. No helping hand from ESA to Israel direct or indirect, scientists from Israel working there too. For Pakistan it was enough to built its own atomic weapons. When the Mossad has to tell the public, where most infos come from?!. The YKW showed that the Israeli view of things to come was wrong. Iraq the similar situation, when it comes to WMD.
The Kennedy admin. (1961-63) could not prevent Israeli becoming a nuclear-power. Pakistan is the first islamic nuclear-power and will not be the last to come. Oil will not last for ever and nuclear power-station will reappear in many countries. If we like it or not.

I didn’t say the Ofeqs are better or not, just don’t take us for fools.

“I wouldn’t underestimate the Israeli intelligence like that. The European satellites aren’t much better, if at all, from the Ofeq 5 or 6.
I believe that we also have people in Iran.”
How could I forgot. The Ofeq 5 or 6 are better. The Europeans do that business for decades. Hubble is a K-11 looking into the opposite direction. No helping hand from ESA to Israel direct or indirect, scientists from Israel working there too. For Pakistan it was enough to built its own atomic weapons. When the Mossad has to tell the public, where most infos come from?!. The YKW showed that the Israeli view of things to come was wrong. Iraq the similar situation, when it comes to WMD.
The Kennedy admin. (1961-63) could not prevent Israeli becoming a nuclear-power. Pakistan is the first islamic nuclear-power and will not be the last to come. Oil will not last for ever and nuclear power-station will reappear in many countries. If we like it or not.

Iran Ready To Show Off Shahab-3 Missile
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, TEHRAN

Iran said Sept. 7 it is ready to show off a test of its improved Shahab-3 medium range missile, which is capable of hitting Israel, to “observers” in order to prove it is a success.

“The ministry is ready to organize a new test of the Shahab-3 missile in the presence of observers,” Defense Minister Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani said in a statement carried by the official news agency IRNA. “The recent test that was carried out was a success.”

The minister appeared to be reacting to recent foreign press reports that questioned whether an Aug. 11 test had been a failure, noting that the missile had apparently been remotely detonated in mid-flight.

The Israeli daily Haaretz, however, has recently written that the upgraded version of the Shahab-3 had a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,280 miles), whereas the previous version was believed to have a range of 1,300 to 1,700 kilometers.

The Shahab-3 missile was deployed among the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in July last year. Although the missile has been paraded with the banner “Israel should be wiped off the map,” Iran says it is purely defensive.

In Persian, “Shahab” means “meteor” or “shooting star.”

———————————
We want to kill you and your kind but we are mostly defensive 🙂

Do you really think we can accept the Iranians having nuclear weapons?
Only responsible and stable regimes should be allowed to have nuclear ability. Iran’s regime is neither.

what man?? they’re quite stable..been there for looong time now. Dunno about Responsibility, everyone has different views about them..and launching a nuke aint a simple task..needs strong C&C, Iranians arent stupid enough to launch a nuke just like that on Israel. Its more of a propaganda I beleive. Again, different views for different ppl. Offcourse if I was in ur position, i’d be saying the same for Iranians. 😉 , I dont like the regime anyway.

Related news:
TEHRAN (AFP) Sep 02, 2004
Iran intends to launch its first satellite into space in April 2005, with the device described as being purely for civil purposes, Iranian media reported Thursday.

The satellite, code-named Mesbah (lantern), was shown on state television. It is said to weigh 60 kilograms (132 pounds) and is cube-shaped which each side measuring 50 centimetres (20 inches). It will be put into orbit at an altitude of 900 kilometres (about 560 miles).

“The satellite will be used to identify natural resources, control the electrical and energy network (gas and oil), and later on can be used by communications and crisis management,” press reports said.

The head of the Islamic republic’s Scientific and Industrial Research Centre, Seyed Mohammad Fathi, was quoted as saying the project would allow Iran to develop other satellites in the future.

In January, Iran’s defence minister said the satellite would be launched by Iranian technology, but gave no further details.
http://www.spacedaily.com/2004/040902084238.7tlw4kbq.html

—

http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_fa.asp?news_id=123479459245825

Iran will nip any plot in the bud

09:06:15 Þ.Ù
Mashhad, Khorassan prov, Sept 5 – Days after announcing the arrest of dozens for spying on Iran’s nuclear program, Information Minister Ali Younesi vowed here Saturday that his ministry would ‘nip any plot in the bud’.

Speaking at a ceremony in this northeastern city to mark the 20th anniversary of his ministry’s establishment, Younesi said the Information Ministry has all the enemies of the Islamic Republic under surveillance.

“We easily manage our enemies and arrest them whenever needed,” said the Minister, who is fresh from announcing Tuesday that several people had been arrested for transferring nuclear information abroad.

‘We admit having the best intelligence service in the world now’, Younesi added.

“The Information Ministry, thanks to its enormous experience, is now able to fight out an intelligence battle against the most powerful security establishments of the world. “And we believe we can win most of those battles,” he added.

—

Now we atleast know Erez was right about the mossad part..they do have ppl on the ground. ignore rest of the patriotic stuff.

To have own satellite comes to be usefull, when there is the danger, to be cut off from such information. (Your country is under an embargo for example.)

Military sats usually offer greater resolution, and without all the political business. You don’t need to ask anyone for favors hopeing that he will be willing to help you whenever you need, wherever you need.

still, the overall tone too paranoid. the iranians have been living with a nuclear-capable israel for 35 years. if you’re really scared of getting nuked, worry about some arab driving a truck with a dirty bomb/nuke into tel aviv, or a ship with the same bomb into Haifa or Eilat. besides you guys have Arrow 2! S/MRBMs shouldnt be your biggest fear.

So far our least protected warfield are the skies, even with the Arrow. You can never trust a man made machine to work 100% all the time.
They could live with our nuclear ability because we have a democratic, responsible regime, that can’t just shot anyone it wishes. The Iranian regime can, even without asking their people (or their representives).

With Sateilletes and the US providing Israel with F-15I and F-16I, America is virtually giving a nudge for Israel to bomb Iran…..

And?
Why not?
Do you really think we can accept the Iranians having nuclear weapons?
Only responsible and stable regimes should be allowed to have nuclear ability. Iran’s regime is neither.

We have more infos from Global-Security about Irans atomic installations than from Israeli intel. The European satellites and intel from inside Iran is more than Israel can achive alone. At least Israel can claim it is from Ofek 5/6/*. The problem for Israel is, its interest shows, where it is looking for and two independent analysis excists about that.

I wouldn’t underestimate the Israeli intelligence like that. The European satellites aren’t much better, if at all, from the Ofeq 5 or 6.
I believe that we also have people in Iran.

Israel already has a downlink from US early warning sats to alert its Arrow system and will get wind of any missile attack from islamic nations quite early.

But the access to high quality KH12 10cm res imint wont be given or rarely
because Unkil would want NOBODY ELSE to have that capability.

Thats why israel is going its own way with Ofek-x.

We have more infos from Global-Security about Irans atomic installations than from Israeli intel. The European satellites and intel from inside Iran is more than Israel can achive alone. At least Israel can claim it is from Ofek 5/6/*. The problem for Israel is, its interest shows, where it is looking for and two independent analysis excists about that.
Despite that, an independent tool for intel. ashures, that no intel. data was denied, constant fear from Israel, when it comes from intel. data from the USA.

Analysis / A rocket with a camera

The loss yesterday of the Ofek-6 was an expensive engineering and security loss, but there’s an even graver indirect cost than the loss of the capability, the time and the money.

The planning failure that prevented the satellite from going into orbit could accelerate the escalation of tension between Israel and Iran and bring them closer to a military clash.

Israel chose, rather than was forced, to launch the satellite now. A reasonable alternative would have been to warehouse the missile and satellite and wait for Ofek-5 to outlive its usefulness. The wait would have saved the cost of the launch, but contained the risk of a temporary blindness in the lacuna between the demise of 5 and the launch of 6.

The recommendation that was finally accepted was not to leave the missile and satellite ready on the shelf. The gamble, or calculated risk, was not a success. Now the shelf is empty, and there is no certainty that a new satellite will be ready before Ofek-5 reaches its end.

The greatest threat to Israel, according to the current national security assessment, is a nuclear Iran. The hostility toward Israel from the zealous Islamic regime in Tehran is constant and demonstrative. External pressure, from the U.S. and Europe, through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council, could delay and obstruct the Iranian nuclear program, but Israel reckons that it won’t completely prevent it and that some time between 2005 and 2007, Iran will have nuclear weapons.

There is, of course, a significant difference between the first bomb and operational capabilities, but all it would take is one warhead in Iranian hands to undermine Israel’s deterrent capabilities and to grant a certain degree of immunity to Hezbollah and Syria, which could then provoke Israel through other means.

A satellite does not guarantee superior intelligence. Last year, before the Iraq War, Israel had no more specific information about Saddam Hussein’s Scud launchers than any other countries. But without a satellite, when it comes to as secretive and skillfully deceptive a country as Iran, it will be difficult for Israel to track the pace of Iranian nuclear preparations to be equipped with missiles that carry nuclear warheads.

The window through which Israel is observing Iran, “the shutter of opportunity,” could be closed precisely when the concern about what is happening in Iran reaches its climax. That would strengthen the arguments of those in Israel proposing a preemptive launch against Iran, and at the same time the voices in Tehran worried by such a blow would call for a preemptive strike against Israel. They’ll say, as experts said after earlier launches of the Ofek, that it is essentially a missile with a camera.

As opposed to the third-stage failure, which involves the camera orbiting the earth, nothing went wrong in the first two stages and, in that sense, Israel conducted a successful test of a missile that under other circumstances would be ballistic. Thus, as opposed to the damage done to the intelligence deterence, through the loss of the satellite, missile deterrence remains.

Veteran Iran hands in Israel have been issuing particularly gloomy statements lately: It is impossible to stop the Iranian bomb, and at most one can hope for – or help arrange – a change in regime in Tehran. But both the regime and its opponents share the desire to acquire the bomb. It is a national ambition, anchored in Iran’s view of itself as a regional power, which has the right to at least have the same weapons as Pakistan, India and, according to official U.S. documents, Israel.

That very same argument was heard from Israelis by the unwilling heros of the FBI investigation now underway in Washington, including Larry Franklin of the political department in the Pentagon. Franklin, his colleague, Harold Rod, and others visited Israel last December, took part in the Herzliya Conference, and among other experts had talks with Uri Lubrani, Israel’s last ambassador to Iran in the waning days of the shah, who had warned of the shakiness of the regime at the time.

After the presidential elections, the Pentagon might support providing Israel with the huge “bunker busting” GBU 28 bomb, capable of penetrating deep underground storage spaces of weapons of mass destruction. The trend toward escalation in the Israel-Iranian conflict could speed up the reassessment of Israel’s own policy of nuclear ambiguity. Three years ago, outside the government, Benjamin Netanyahu supported such a policy change. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon publicly reprimanded him for it and the idea was shelved. But in light of Sharon’s political weakness, Netanyahu now appears to be close to returning to a position where he could influence things in that direction.

With Sateilletes and the US providing Israel with F-15I and F-16I, America is virtually giving a nudge for Israel to bomb Iran…..

you guys are really optimistic people. when you’ve lost an important satellite, you say it at least proves your ballistic missile capabilities!

hehe…

still, the overall tone too paranoid. the iranians have been living with a nuclear-capable israel for 35 years. if you’re really scared of getting nuked, worry about some arab driving a truck with a dirty bomb/nuke into tel aviv, or a ship with the same bomb into Haifa or Eilat. besides you guys have Arrow 2! S/MRBMs shouldnt be your biggest fear.

Analysis / A rocket with a camera

The loss yesterday of the Ofek-6 was an expensive engineering and security loss, but there’s an even graver indirect cost than the loss of the capability, the time and the money.

The planning failure that prevented the satellite from going into orbit could accelerate the escalation of tension between Israel and Iran and bring them closer to a military clash.

Israel chose, rather than was forced, to launch the satellite now. A reasonable alternative would have been to warehouse the missile and satellite and wait for Ofek-5 to outlive its usefulness. The wait would have saved the cost of the launch, but contained the risk of a temporary blindness in the lacuna between the demise of 5 and the launch of 6.

The recommendation that was finally accepted was not to leave the missile and satellite ready on the shelf. The gamble, or calculated risk, was not a success. Now the shelf is empty, and there is no certainty that a new satellite will be ready before Ofek-5 reaches its end.

The greatest threat to Israel, according to the current national security assessment, is a nuclear Iran. The hostility toward Israel from the zealous Islamic regime in Tehran is constant and demonstrative. External pressure, from the U.S. and Europe, through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council, could delay and obstruct the Iranian nuclear program, but Israel reckons that it won’t completely prevent it and that some time between 2005 and 2007, Iran will have nuclear weapons.

There is, of course, a significant difference between the first bomb and operational capabilities, but all it would take is one warhead in Iranian hands to undermine Israel’s deterrent capabilities and to grant a certain degree of immunity to Hezbollah and Syria, which could then provoke Israel through other means.

A satellite does not guarantee superior intelligence. Last year, before the Iraq War, Israel had no more specific information about Saddam Hussein’s Scud launchers than any other countries. But without a satellite, when it comes to as secretive and skillfully deceptive a country as Iran, it will be difficult for Israel to track the pace of Iranian nuclear preparations to be equipped with missiles that carry nuclear warheads.

The window through which Israel is observing Iran, “the shutter of opportunity,” could be closed precisely when the concern about what is happening in Iran reaches its climax. That would strengthen the arguments of those in Israel proposing a preemptive launch against Iran, and at the same time the voices in Tehran worried by such a blow would call for a preemptive strike against Israel. They’ll say, as experts said after earlier launches of the Ofek, that it is essentially a missile with a camera.

As opposed to the third-stage failure, which involves the camera orbiting the earth, nothing went wrong in the first two stages and, in that sense, Israel conducted a successful test of a missile that under other circumstances would be ballistic. Thus, as opposed to the damage done to the intelligence deterence, through the loss of the satellite, missile deterrence remains.

Veteran Iran hands in Israel have been issuing particularly gloomy statements lately: It is impossible to stop the Iranian bomb, and at most one can hope for – or help arrange – a change in regime in Tehran. But both the regime and its opponents share the desire to acquire the bomb. It is a national ambition, anchored in Iran’s view of itself as a regional power, which has the right to at least have the same weapons as Pakistan, India and, according to official U.S. documents, Israel.

That very same argument was heard from Israelis by the unwilling heros of the FBI investigation now underway in Washington, including Larry Franklin of the political department in the Pentagon. Franklin, his colleague, Harold Rod, and others visited Israel last December, took part in the Herzliya Conference, and among other experts had talks with Uri Lubrani, Israel’s last ambassador to Iran in the waning days of the shah, who had warned of the shakiness of the regime at the time.

After the presidential elections, the Pentagon might support providing Israel with the huge “bunker busting” GBU 28 bomb, capable of penetrating deep underground storage spaces of weapons of mass destruction. The trend toward escalation in the Israel-Iranian conflict could speed up the reassessment of Israel’s own policy of nuclear ambiguity. Three years ago, outside the government, Benjamin Netanyahu supported such a policy change. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon publicly reprimanded him for it and the idea was shelved. But in light of Sharon’s political weakness, Netanyahu now appears to be close to returning to a position where he could influence things in that direction.

What spying? We live in a world of an open sky policy. The best way to prevent wars.
You can buy what you want in highest quality from an open market.
All interested Islamic countries have high resolution pics from Israel. Building something takes time, as well as shiftung sizeable military forces. You are not in need of a daily update either. If Eygpt sees the need for a national observation satellite, it can buy a commercial one in Europe with an excellent resolution, doing every 2 hours pics from Israel. Looking for traffic-jams during rush-hours there?
To have own satellite comes to be usefull, when there is the danger, to be cut off from such information. (Your country is under an embargo for example.)

Rockgordon:

The first and third stages of the PSLV are solid stages while the second and fourth are liquid stages.

The solid stages did not have assistance from anybody. In fact, the PSLV’s first stage is the fourth largest solid motor in the world (the biggest is the booster stage of NASA’s space shuttle). Russia, the Chinese – nobody has developed such a large solid motor (often they have not needed to). However, it does demonstrate (as if such demonstration were necessary) that there is no foreign component to this motor. ISRO’s solid engine group is equal to the best in the world.

The second liquid stage, as you have said has the Vikas engine, which was developed in collaboration with the French. It was similar to the Viking engine of the Ariane. However, it was a duly signed agreement between ISRO and the French CNES agency that led to the development of Vikas engine. It was a publicly acknowledged project and the collaboration was essentially to give a jump start to ISRO’s liquids capabilities (which were not as impressive as its solids capability at that time). Again, going from ‘engine’ to ‘stage’ is a non-trivial task and the stage had to be completely designed by ISRO on its own, based on the Vikas engine.

The GSLV’s fourth stage is a LH2/LO2 cryogenic, which was supplied by Russia as part of a contract between ISRO and Glavkosmos. A total of 7 engines were provided by Russia and no more can be supplied as per the Russians’ agreement with the US. ISRO has already tested its own cryogenic engine and the cryogenic stage is under development. It would be flight tested on a GSLV launch next year.

Finally, Kalam was the Project Director of the SLV-3 – the first launcher of ISRO. He left ISRO after the successful test of the SLV-3 and then went on to head DRDL and the Integrated Missile Development Project. So no, he did not leave ISRO before its first launcher was tested. But yes, he left ISRO long before the PSLV was even designed. It was only in the conceptual stages when he was still in ISRO.

I hope this answers your question and there is no further digression away from the topic of this thread.

About India’s rocket being better. Mr Kalam (the president of India) has stolen the Russian engine designs. No wonder that it can lift more… I do believe that India has put more into that project but the engine is Russian and we all know that the engine is the most important part of the lauch vehicle… Anyway. I doubt that Israel will learn a lot from India. We all know their quality.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t Kalam leave ISRO and join DRDO long before India launched it’s first ever space launch vehicle, the SLV? And that the engine that powers the PSLV is an Indian derivation “Vikas” of the the French SEP? And the only thing Russian about the Indian space program I knew of had to do with the GSLV’s last cryogenic stage, and only 7 of them had ben sold to India by Glavkosmos?

I doubt that Egypt will be allowed to send a sat into orbit. The US has strong financial links and stripping them from spare parts make them practicly unarmed. We all know that Egypt was restricted from amraam? So it is not very independent. Most of the Egyptians are not favouring the US links and they are contributers for Al Qaida. Hosni Mubarak is just doing what the US wants it to do and in return he gets a lot of financial credits.

Not spying on Iran is incorrect. Even with Iran having finished the Nuclear station Israel will need more info about further devlopments. I doubt they will launch attack. The retaliation is indeed tough. Iran has told openly that they will counter much worser then Israel can imagine. It sounds very heavy but we have to keep that in our minds.

There is a readymade solution to the problem. Indias PSLV which has a proven record
of lofting multiple sats into MEO orbit and has a 1-ton into GTO coming up next year (metsat). It can loft atleast twice the shavit payload into LEO permitting large and more functional sats without pinching the space and power budgets designers face.

Actually, the PSLV can loft four-five times the Shavit’s mass into a SSO (the orbit for the Ofek series). Ofek-5 was 300kg – PSLV has a 1.2T-1.5T to SSO capability (depending on the specific altitude of the SSO). Also, the diameter of the satellite fairing is much higher – 1.3m for the Shavit and 3.2m for the PSLV, allowing much more flexibility to designers.

It could be a win-win partnership between Israel and India. Israel has some of the best imaging capabilities in the world. The PSLV is a reliable launcher that can launch it with great precision into the required orbit. And can launch a larger, heavier Ofek. Or more fuel could be added to the same satellite to give it greater steerability.

The main bottleneck I foresee in any such arrangement materializing is that since Ofek is designed and manufactured in partnership with the US, the US is unlikely to give its green signal.

Note: this is not to denigrate the Shavit launcher in any respect or Israel’s capabilities. Given the resources, I have no doubt that Israel could develop a much larger and capable launcher than the Shavit-1. IIRC, Shavit-2 and Shavit-3 are already planned. However, one disadvantage it will always suffer from is the location of its launch port (westward launch because an eastward launch would be over land).

I think it may already be too late with Iran, the Osirak raid was almost out of the blue, the Iranians have had years to prepare for an Isfraeli raid.

This may well include dispersing nuclear facilities and making underground facilities.

What truely is frightening is the retaliation Iran may instigate against Israel, both conventionally and unconventially. This time though, Israel may lose alot of sympathy and good will in the world…….

hmmmm…. I hear the dry growl of F-15 Raam engines over the Negev

Unkil will go ape**** though and maybe administer a sharp slap on the wrist
for once…. followed by another big military aid package 😉

To spy which nations? I doubt they are going after Irac now…

Well you see, thre is that Iranian nuclear bomb thing to take care of.
Since a strike is a question of when and not if and there will be a huge uproar
against Israel by the same countries that condemn the Osirak raid, Israel wil
only have one chance to take out as many nuclear installetions spread across
Iran.