A320NEO orders – anyone keeping an exact tally?

This is the URL for air-insight http://airinsight.com/2010/12/06/cseries-beats-neo-a3

This is the URL for air-insight http://airinsight.com/2010/12/06/cseries-beats-neo-a3

Does not say when exactly when the data was collated but the article is dated 06 December 2010.

Also it excludes the figures for Boeing 737-900 model series

RE: Other OEMs making a comeback at Farnborough 2012

There has to be IMO.

If all Airbus’ slots are full, then airlines have no choice. Its CSeries or 737.

I can see a bright future for the CSeries – say its introduced in 2014 (probably more in-line with reality than Bombardier projections). The A319NEO is slated for introduction in ~2016.

I would expect many airlines are in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode, as with a relatively low total order book so far, any CSeries orders can be slotted in before a comparative 319NEO.

Also found this (airinsight.com):

From all these sales figures have we got a final breakdown of firm orders

From all these sales figures have we got a final breakdown of firm orders

In my opening post I differentiated between firm and non firm orders.

Otherwise an MOU (or similar) in the future, can be simply ‘gone’ usually without too heavy a penalty (or none) especially if a carrier simply vanishes (financially – bust or change of trading name in some distant land, etc)

The other aspect to consider is what if any of these orders have a full or partial contra trading promissory built in formally or informally? By this I mean where part or whole assembly/manufacture are done in a none European location or a large proportion of materials guaranteed a purchase from a previously non supplying country. The socio economic shift for Europe can be severe primarily in loss of employment.

I am happier to wait for Farnborough 2012 and see if the figures remain the same or higher or if there will be a comeback from other manufacturers i.e. Boeing and Bombardier who may take back some of the high ground held by Airbus.

Otherwise in the meantime I do congratulate Airbus

Yesterday’s edition of Aviation Week gives the 320NEO number at 660.

Well done to Airbus!

From that same issue….
But popularity could be a problem..From that same issue….
“The company has already talked with engine makers about a further production ramp-up, having recently moved to increase single-aisle output to a record 42 aircraft per month.

“We will investigate if we can go considerably higher,” Enders says. Airbus has a few production slots for standard A320s free in 2014 and for NEOs in 2018-19, depending on the turnover from standards to NEOs.”

Boeing recenty upped 737 production to 42 a month….it sounds like good times for single-asile transports, even with the new competition.

The same issue talks about Boeing’s plans…several large operators/lease firms are pressing Boeing for an all-new aircraft rather than a re-engined 737.
A decision is expected soon with initrial deliveries in the 2019 timeframe…in other words not long after a new 320NEO order could be filled.

it`s just that making assumptions without specific numbers is silly, and whatever the actual purchase price difference is you will want to compare to operating costs, per seat, etc.

Those numbers will never be in the public domain. Ever.

Even the list prices are just that… numbers on a list – they don’t have too much relevance to the actual prices.

Airlines will have to balance the savings on the upfront purchase against greater risk in MRO, potential fuel savings/costs* and re-training in comparison to various other options.

*which requires a fuel price forecast over the aircraft’s life. Anyone fancy speculating the price of kerosene in 15 years time?

ARJ apparently has a list price of $30 million, I don`t know how much discount they have been selling them at (the only figure I found was for the GECAS deal for 5bil yuan = $772mil = $30.8mil per plane). Superjet`s list price is $31.8mil, and recent deals with Blue Panorma and the Indonesian carrier have been $30mil for orders of 12 each… To get a ball-park figure of price differences.

It`s not that I don`t think COMAC can´t under-cut UAC`s MS-21 (who`ve been aggressively cost-optimizing components), it`s just that making assumptions without specific numbers is silly, and whatever the actual purchase price difference is you will want to compare to operating costs, per seat, etc. Obviously that is the case since the price target you mention for MS-21 is otherwise rather close to the actual cost of SSJ.

Clearly, either of them can beat A320NEO numbers, and I suppose that is what main-stream press cares about most.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d2375b6-9c12-11e0-bef9-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1QPuxOgxf

A320 NEO Total order seems to be 594 comitments

Well sure, and I can see COMAC offering VEEERY nice deals just to build market share (and cerain discount airlines are extra glad to oblige). But it`s more that I don`t even see that argument being made… Perhaps it`s just the assumption, but it seems reasonable to expound on that assumption, right? …Backing it up with numbers comparison over life-time, etc…

There are numbers out and about.

At list price, an A320NEO is ~$95 million IIRC.

An MS-21 has a target price of $35 million.

The C-919 will have an even cheaper price.

(re: C919) Simples. 90% of the aircraft for 50% of the cost.

Well sure, and I can see COMAC offering VEEERY nice deals just to build market share (and cerain discount airlines are extra glad to oblige). But it`s more that I don`t even see that argument being made… Perhaps it`s just the assumption, but it seems reasonable to expound on that assumption, right? …Backing it up with numbers comparison over life-time, etc…

As a corollary, you don`t see anybody putting good prospects on ARJ. SSJ is UAC`s teething project to develop world-wide support mechanisms and so forth… Based on their experiences there (incl. learning from mistakes, mostly lateness and problems scaling production), I`d expect them to put out a good job with MS-21. Time will tell.

Re: new Airbus line, they are already doing work in China, and it wouldn`t surprise me to see that expanded. Other locations could work as well, but as somebody mentioned, increasing the full supply chain to match is it`s own undertaking.

If Airbus does open a new line..why could it not be in the UK?

New assembly lines cannot be opened if they cannot get enough components to assemble! 🙂

Why is it I see the C-919 mentioned 10x as often as MS-21 in `Western` press, yet never any mention of what it brings to the table, besides the Leap-X engines and unremarkably modern avionics?

Simples.

90% of the aircraft for 50% of the cost.

If Airbus does open a new line..why could it not be in the UK?

That `almost full` is based on all the options being 100% converted, I assume…
Of course, if Airbus are that close to filling out completely to 2020, I`d expect them to open a new line. (China?)
It does hi-light that it`s not a `game` that any one company is going to win 100% of, because nobody has production capacity to meet 100% of demand. So whatever Boeing does, simply offering a product that can be delivered is something that some customers will need…. And it definitely opens the doors for other competitors like the CS300, MS-21 and C-919.

(Why is it I see the C-919 mentioned 10x as often as MS-21 in `Western` press, yet never any mention of what it brings to the table, besides the Leap-X engines and unremarkably modern avionics?)

Leahy said they only have ” a few” slots for the NEO left, otherwise it’s all full till 2018-2019.

IMHO, the GTF is all hype at this point, PW’s last effort at an all new engine (PW2037) has had an abysmal reliability record for over 25 years now.

Also, American is rumored to be sniffing around and Delta has publicly stated they are in the market for 200 narrowbodies. Does anyone think Airbus might be in a pinch for production capacity, in other words, could they accept 3-400 more orders and get them delivered/produced in any kind of reasonable timeframe?

and as mentioned in the Paris thread…. AirAsia orders 200 A320NEOs with 100 more on option.

I have seen the hype on Airbus web site but how many are firm ?

I have seen the hype on the Airbus web site but how many are firm ?
30 reported firm in my opening of this thread with URL reference.
Are the other 42 firm or simply MOU a wish list at the Paris Air Show or marketing hype by Airbus.
This juggling of the numbers is something both Airbus and many of it’s Asian customers do for mutual publicity (it was challenged a few times on this very forum – see old threads)
Let’s see when 2015 comes and in the meantime there’s Boeing to announce what they plan to do in early 2012 and they ain’t beat by a long shot yet.
The accurate tally is best kept by categorising them as firm, MOU or ‘dreams’ of crazy marketing guys.

Airbus website says GoAir has signed up for 72 A320NEOs

According to this, IndiGo is will order 150 A320NEO and 30A320s. Looks like it is proving most popular 🙂

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13884433

AirAsia will order 200 A320NEO plus 100 option today