dark light
Airliner World
Combat Aircraft
AeroPlane
Flypast
Airforces
Aviation
Pcpilot
Air

Chinas Aviation

In recent months weve all read about Chinas plans to construct a civilian aircraft manufacturing busines that could in time challenge Boeing and Airbus’s dominence.
What do you guys think of their chances in the long run?

Member for:

19 years 1 month

Posts:

4,177

Send private message

By: tenthije - 19th December 2009 at 12:13

On a global scale, not anytime soon. On a regional scale I’d say pretty large.

China’s strengths:

  • Once they set their mind to something, they will do it.
  • A lot of skilled people.
  • A lot of money.
  • Access to the latest technologies.
  • Ablity to quickly adapt (copy) technologies.
  • A rather unique view on copyrights.
  • (Western) companies are fighting to enter the market.

Weaknesses:

  • Their leadership is rigid.
  • Affraid to take (technological) risks, they’d rather copy.
  • Not the best reputation for delivering safe high-tech products.
  • Attrocious reputation for developing safe high-tech products (remember the car crash-test?)
  • After sales support is non-existent on a global scale. Limited even regionally, but at least for a regional scope this can easily be rectified when you consider china’s strength listed above. Globally that will be harder.

Opportunities:

  • The whole Chinese domestic market. And boy is it large!
  • Any market that cares more about price then reliability. Think Africa, parts of South America, big parts of Asia. But also, (western) cargo operations.
  • The Chinese government will support their industry (and it is THEIR industry) so that means an almost endless supply of money and political muscle. In particular neighbouring smaller nations may find it hard to say no.
  • They’d have to hurry, but there are technological innovations that they can introduce first. Think for instance of geared turbo fans. Personally though, I can’t see the established engine manufacturers giving Chinese companies acces to toys like GTF before Boeing and Airbus. The engine companies will play it safe and make sure Boeing and Airbus get first.

Threats:

  • You just know safety had to come up again.
  • numerous copyright infrictions might restrict sales to domestic only. But personally I don’t see the world economy having the guts to stand up to China in such a manner.
  • What goes up, must come down. The Chinese economy can’t stay in overdrive all the time.
  • Sooner or later the Chinese people will want a piece of the pie and expect European and US living standards. If this leads to a popular revolt then that will cripple their economy. Perhaps even the global economy. But that is very long term thinking!
  • The public will be hesitant to fly a Chinese plane (again the car crash-test comes up). If one where to crash early in the program it will be over for them.

Member for:

19 years 1 month

Posts:

24

Send private message

By: Rin Tin Tin - 19th December 2009 at 03:25

Any specific reasons as to why

Member for:

19 years 1 month

Posts:

353

Send private message

By: CloudWarrior - 18th December 2009 at 23:41

Slim.

Sign in to post a reply