LBA-EWR?Your Thoughts!

Out of curiosity why are we assuming CO and ERW?

Delta for instance have stated their transatlantic business strategy vies-a-vie acquired 757-200s, is to use them on European routes which have little or no American scheduled service.

More likly that Delta would do LBIA-JFK then CO doing the Newark run imo.

I would assume CO because it fits their strategy more, Delta’s policy of 757s is less mature and they have been in negotiations with a lot of airports, but with Delta there is a lot of talk, and a lack of action sometimes. Unlike CO.

Out of curiosity why are we assuming CO and ERW?

Delta for instance have stated their transatlantic business strategy vies-a-vie acquired 757-200s, is to use them on European routes which have little or no American scheduled service.

More likly that Delta would do LBIA-JFK then CO doing the Newark run imo.

I think that the Pakistan XXX-LBA return would work beacuse of the Community that live in Harehills and Most of Bradford LOL. Also i have been looking at LBA masterplan and they are going to extend it a few 100 meters so they can get at least a A330-300 in which means a 777 will be able to get in. The only thing for LBA which is letting them down is the falicities i mean the Duty free i am 6″2 and i have to duck

But it all depends on the business class market and how full that is. It’s no use for CO to carry 110,000 pax on LBA-EWR in 105,000 pax are not paying the premium fares and are upgrading a large number of economy passengers into the business class..

Of course, But unless the economy / business split on a 757 out of LBA is going to be fundamentally different from that achieved by CO achieve elsewhere in provincial UK is it an issue?

Why on earth would you want LBA-XXX-Pakistan? That’s implying that LBA-Pakistan would not be viable as a non-stop service.

err because by getting LBA-XXX-Pakistan you get LBA-XXX-lots of destinations. My point is that a connecting service into one of the gulf hubs gives you all of the fantastic onward connections to Aus, Nz, Far East with the bonus of a marketable service to the local asian communities to multiple destinations in Pakistan. There is then at least the ability for LBA of offer some competition to MAN to try and claw back passenger leakage on Pakistan routes. Doesn’t stop you chasing a direct Pakistan service or imply that such a service is “unviable”.

Hopefully I’m wrong about the constraints of the LBA runway in this regard.

Runway is about 130m shorter than NCL in terms of available take off run, so probably needs a starter strip at one end to get something of A330 size up and away. CO should be OK as things stands

If you reckon crudely that 75% of the 1.1m were connecting onwards into the US and of those 25% were from the LBA area, that’s a 200,000 opportunity. BRS-EWR, supposedly a success, carried 85,000 people in 2006. BFS-EWR was 102,000.

But it all depends on the business class market and how full that is. It’s no use for CO to carry 110,000 pax on LBA-EWR in 105,000 pax are not paying the premium fares and are upgrading a large number of economy passengers into the business class.

I the success of NCL-DXB will be a interesting one to watch to see whether this might work elsewhere

I rather than the EK dipping it’s toes thing occurred back in 1990 when it began MAN ops. Since then it progressed to daily MAN, introduced daily BHX, gone to 2 daily MAN, introduced daily GLA and gone 2 daily to BHX; none of that takes into account the increase in capacity each route has had!

By the look of the MAN stats though, the LBA-Florida market is the bigger fish to chase, as is the eastbound connecting market. LBA-XXX-pakistan, far east, australia etc is a big market lost to MAN at the moment

Why on earth would you want LBA-XXX-Pakistan? That’s implying that LBA-Pakistan would not be viable as a non-stop service. What should be the main thing for LBA is to improve the runway so that the small widebodies can do a 6 to 9 hour flight without the needs to stop en-route with no traffic rights, unless you’d prefer all LBA long-haul services go one-stop and leave MAN/BHX with non-stop with it’s perceived “attractiveness” in terms of getting a passenger to wherever in a more timely manner. Hopefully I’m wrong about the constraints of the LBA runway in this regard.

I think there is overlap in the catchment area between LBA and MAN, but then again 99% of all the routes offered out of LBA are available from MAN (Lille is the only one I can think of that is unique to LBA). Of this 99%, I would say about 80% are available with the same carrier. Jet2, bmi, klm, flybe, Ryanair, mytravel, tui etc all operating the same routes from both airports.

This is what the owners of Jet2 had to say about the situation in their last financial report

“Jet2.com, the low cost airline, has had an encouraging summer’s business from its six northern bases which, whilst serving seperate catchment areas, have considerable synergies in terms of marketing and operations”

If LBA with no investment in terminal facilities or transport access can still pull in 3m passengers on routes that are duplicated with the same airlines from MAN, then I would say it has a bright future if Bridgepoint get the right people in and invest in the right areas.

As for the US, 1.7m passengers were on MAN – USA services last year. 1.1m on scheduled routes, 0.6m to Florida. If you reckon crudely that 75% of the 1.1m were connecting onwards into the US and of those 25% were from the LBA area, that’s a 200,000 opportunity. BRS-EWR, supposedly a success, carried 85,000 people in 2006. BFS-EWR was 102,000. Sounds to me like there is a market for a connecting service without a doubt. Not so sure about the point to point market with someone like Jet2 – much would depend on whether it would actually grow the market. Cheap fares, big advertising, convenient departure point might get people interested in a break there who wouldn’t have considered it otherwise. By the look of the MAN stats though, the LBA-Florida market is the bigger fish to chase, as is the eastbound connecting market. LBA-XXX-pakistan, far east, australia etc is a big market lost to MAN at the moment and the success of NCL-DXB will be a interesting one to watch to see whether this might work elsewhere

How many onward connections from LBA to EWR?
LBA – Amsterdam
LBA – Heathrow
LBA – Dublin
LBA – Brussels
LBA – Paris
LBA – Bristol
LBA – Edinburgh
LBA – Glasgow
LBA – Shannon (next)
Some jouneys by bus to selected UK airport.
And plus Manchester direct.
Not everyone is looking at air-miles loyalty cards etc.
I personally always went through Amsterdam. Better than London but I lived close to LBA. No chance to set off to Manchester early morning.
What to do with the car when her in doors needed it.

We’re not talking connections on getting to EWR, we’re talking connections at EWR that Continental offer, such as LBA-EWR-LAX, LBA-EWR-MCO, LBA-EWR-ORD etc.

How many onward connections from LBA to EWR?
LBA – Amsterdam
LBA – Heathrow
LBA – Dublin
LBA – Brussels
LBA – Paris
LBA – Bristol
LBA – Edinburgh
LBA – Glasgow
LBA – Shannon (next)
Some jouneys by bus to selected UK airport.
And plus Manchester direct.
Not everyone is looking at air-miles loyalty cards etc.
I personally always went through Amsterdam. Better than London but I lived close to LBA. No chance to set off to Manchester early morning.
What to do with the car when her in doors needed it.

FlyGlobespan are doing transatlantic flights without any partners in the US, so no onward connections on offer.

FlyGlobespan fly daily to Boston, New York JFK and Orlando so why cant Jet2?

Well i actually think that if we dont get the New York connection then Robin Hood will.:mad:

I think Yorkshire folks should stick to Whitby rather than getting all adventurous with their travels. Besides, if an airline started a service from Leeds to Newark I suspect most folks round the region would wonder why they’d want to fly to Nottinghamshire! :rolleyes: :p

The airport did a research on it with the general public two years ago, don’t think there was enough demand.

Well over 200.000 passengers each year make the trek across the Pennines to Manchester from the West Yorkshire region, so there is no reason why LBA shouldn’t have it’s own service to New York.

The first airline to operate the route will do well. I made the same quote about the first loco to use LBA and that seems to have been proved right.

LBA will eventually get it’s own service to New York. I think the problems we have at the moment with lack of terminal facilities such as adequate check-in space and air-bridges will inevitably contribute to the airlines decision whether or not to fly to LBA.

Without access to a comprehensive hub and spoke network of internal flights (of it’s own or via codeshare) to destinations accross the USA, any airline flying LBA-EWR (or LBA-JFK or ORD for that matter) would struggle. For example, if you take a look at American’s MAN-ORD service, a very large percentage of the passengers make onward connections to all points in the USA. Frankly, much as I’d love to see a sucessful Jet 2 Transatlantic service, I don’t think they’d have the clout to negotiate a viable codeshare deal, but I’d love them to prove me wrong!

Absolutely right, and goes with the point I wa smaking earlier. Looking at EWR, in 2006, 48% of passengers from MAN were terminating their flights at EWR (for NYC), meaning 52% were flying on to other destinations. Of those passengers using the service from Yorks and Humber, 56% were onward connecting, with only 44% (24k pax) bound for New York itself.

To illustrate the point further (for all MAN pax and not just Yorks and Humb), for Dubai, 23% of all pax flying on the route were heading for DXB itself, the other 77% were making onward connections. For ORD, the figure is 19% going to Chicago, with 81% making connecting flights.

This explains why, from a regional airport, airlines like Jet2 will struggle without onwards.

Well then if Continental cant go it Cheap Jet 2 can. I mean all they need to do is get a 757/767-200 config it in 10-20 bussiness and 34 inch economy and then fly to new york. And why are we having an agrument over the most populated cities in UK

Without access to a comprehensive hub and spoke network of internal flights (of it’s own or via codeshare) to destinations accross the USA, any airline flying LBA-EWR (or LBA-JFK or ORD for that matter) would struggle. For example, if you take a look at American’s MAN-ORD service, a very large percentage of the passengers make onward connections to all points in the USA. Frankly, much as I’d love to see a sucessful Jet 2 Transatlantic service, I don’t think they’d have the clout to negotiate a viable codeshare deal, but I’d love them to prove me wrong!

Well then if Continental cant go it Cheap Jet 2 can. I mean all they need to do is get a 757/767-200 config it in 10-20 bussiness and 34 inch economy and then fly to new york. And why are we having an agrument over the most populated cities in UK

Here we go again: from citymayors.com

Cities, towns & districts Population.
London 7,074,265 49.12
Birmingham 1,020,589 49.42
Leeds 726,939 49.43
Glasgow 616,430 47.73
Sheffield 530,375 49.73
Bradford 483,422 49.32
Liverpool 467,995 48.80
Edinburgh 448,850 48.29
Manchester 430,818 49.33
Bristol 399,633 49.59
Kirklees 388,807 49.17
Fife 349,300 48.44
Wirral 329,179 47.89
North Lanarkshire 325,940 48.58
Wakefield 317,342 49.53
Cardiff 315,040 49.09
Dudley 312,194 49.62
Wigan 309,786 49.50
East Riding 308,689 48.87

Like I said above, the 500,000 for Glasgow is prety much the city centre….the reap population of Glasgow is 1.7m with 2.5m in Greater Glasgow.

I would have thought that if Continental can make a go of Belfast with a New York service, then Leeds Bradford should certainly be ‘doable’.

Okay, so admittedly the nearest competition to Belfast in terms of transatlantic competition is 2 hours down the road in Dublin. But the Continental service is certainly far from cheap and it is generally significantly cheaper to fly across to the UK Mainland and make a connection to the US from there. In fact when I looked recently at travelling to New York from Belfast, it was cheaper to fly to London, overnight at a 4 star hotel and fly out the following day to New York than it was to do it direct from Belfast :confused:

So I guess there are people who are prepared to pay extra for the convenience of travelling to a local airport and the right aircraft in the right configuration can certainly make servicing such people a viable proposition.

Regards

John

A little off topic.. but thought i would add this..

I live in Halifax and always my first choice is MAN over LBA, I live closer to LBA.. its about 20 miles and MAN is about 39 miles.. The reason i always chose MAN is due to gretting there…

Its is so much easier heading down the M62 – M60 over to MAN rather than the hassle of having to go up towards Yeadon, ie.. through Bradford etc..

Yes this all depends were you live i guess but it also comes down to the link roads around an Airport which sell it for some, (plus routes!)

RickT

Here we go again: from citymayors.com

Cities, towns & districts Population.
London 7,074,265 49.12
Birmingham 1,020,589 49.42
Leeds 726,939 49.43
Glasgow 616,430 47.73
Sheffield 530,375 49.73
Bradford 483,422 49.32
Liverpool 467,995 48.80
Edinburgh 448,850 48.29
Manchester 430,818 49.33
Bristol 399,633 49.59
Kirklees 388,807 49.17
Fife 349,300 48.44
Wirral 329,179 47.89
North Lanarkshire 325,940 48.58
Wakefield 317,342 49.53
Cardiff 315,040 49.09
Dudley 312,194 49.62
Wigan 309,786 49.50
East Riding 308,689 48.87

The CAA passenger surverys reckon that slightly over half of all passengers using long-haul from MAN are from outside of the North West and Yorkshire / Humberside is the biggest contributor to this.
Rob

Yes, but this forgets the fact that there is a large overlap in the catchment area of the two, and that infact some parts of Yorkshire are more accessible from MAN. If you look at the CAA Survey data for 2006 for EWR then you will see that 49% of the 189k pax are from the North West, and 30% from Yorks and Humber. 30% amounts to 56K pax, which is insufficient to sustain a service of this nature, especially remembering the smaller catchment area of LBA, and the overlap between the two.

Whats more important is that 62% of all business traffic on the route comes from the North West, compared to 23% from Yorks and Humber. So it can be assumed that the North West provides a better yield to the airline.

Furthermore if you use the survey data to look at the 56K from Yorks and Humber then you will see that only 19% were flying on business, whilst 81% are leisure travellers. By comparison, of the 93K pax from the North West, 31% are business travellers.

Therefore MAN is more appealing to the airlines on this type of route because they need to offer higher frequencies to attract the business pax, and therefore they will do that from the largest base of premium travellers. They know that, because the market is more limited from LBA, they can expect the passengers to travel to MAN.

Of course, this is only looking at this route, and it MUST be remembered that passengers make LH connections from both airports via other hubs, such as AMS and LHR. Also remember that in the case of EWR, it is a major hub airport and many of the pax are onward travellers. Therefore a route from LBA would be best operated by CO rather than LS because it can fill more seats through the ability to offer onward connections.

Often CAA survey data is used to quote high level figures, such as those put forward by Rob, and for some arguments this is fine, but then for some it is essential to lok a little deeper and understand the other factors at play. However, having said that, I have done forecast work for LBA and there is a market for NYC in the future.

DXB looks even better from MAN.