they signed a deal for 20 aircraft –
with 20 aircraft i bet some A350-10X will also follow unless boeing can offer a viable 787-10 product and offer commonality advantages!!
By: bring_it_on - 3rd October 2006 at 19:42
A350XWB-xx(2012) will have much more advanced features I think airlines will prefer it simply because it would be a generation ahead of the 777.
Thats the problem with the argument , the -10 wont come out till 2014 or so ( if there are no more delays to the effect of which some publications have suggested) , and the -9 wont really challenge the 777-3ER in PAX and payload ( the model 777 being latest to be inducted into Singapore airlines) , for the other models the 787-9 and a350-9 will probably make up nicely , as far as expansion is concerned i dont know what they think will be the PAX and range requirments and everything will depend upon that and how they view it . Personally the 787-10 if it comes with similar PAX ( or near abouts) should hypothetically be more effeceint due to it being narrower and supposedly lighter , but airbus is now thinking about stretching the A-350-10XWB further which should give it a CASM advantage over the proposed 787-10 at the moment and force boeing to invest a lot more ( structural changes ) to compete effectivly . Boeing also doesnt want to make the 787-10 too big and want to keep under the lower limit of the Y-3 , the bigger 787-10 being smaller then the 10XWB might be an intentional move by boeing to take the smaller PAX orders ( 787 will perform better in this regard due to obvious reasons) and let the -10 take it over the 10787 in CASM for the time being while they spend recources on y3 . Its all about market timing and boeing atleast dont feel that currently there is a need to replace the 777 with the y3 , the 10XWB is an aircraft based on the XWB of 2006 whereas the Y3 will be second generation CFRP fuesalage which boeing will most likely EIS 2015-2016 predicting that the bulk of the 777’s and a340’s will be wanting to get changed by then!! Would be interesting to see how this pans out!!
the airbus XWB has allready taken out effectivly the lower 777 varients IMO but 777 still has time to sell and even if they dont sell anymore boeing still needs to deliver about 225-250 of them , expect 777 sales to go at a good pace for the forceable future , the lower vareints woud be challenged by the -9 and boeing does not have an option at the moment but to come out with the 787-10 . the problem here is that if 787-10 and a350-10 are similar ( which i doubt) the 787 on the accounts of being narrower will have considerable chance of having better CASM but it wont be able to get any bigger ( over 560K IIRC) unless boeing pulls in money to change landing structures etc etc to accomodate it whereas the A-350 is a bigger design to begin with . Effectivly the plans that are seriously being considered for the stretching of XWB-10 might make it in the 300ER league and this would effectivly take it out but only for those who are willing to wait 8 years for EIS , therefore boeing 777 has plenty of time to sell and those units sold wont be ready for replacement till much later then 2014 ( why would someone sell 6,8,10 year airframes? ) which is the current strategy behind the EIS of Y3 !!
About Y3, if it will happen, it probably won’t be ready until 2020
Depends on who you ask , even at boeing there is no clear single line of thinking , they have things on the board and plans to work on both the y3 and y1 simeltaniously if the situation so warrants but you must remember that with the 1st gen. CFRP 787 boeing wants a 48 month to EIS whereas with the 2nd generation it is 36 months so they can launch the program and deliver quite quickly according to what they have invested in this technology ( project 20xx and yellowstone) and 787 would only make them better with CFRP materials.
AS FOR THE y3 – It would be placed in a segement where the lower end is probably taking the place of the 777-300ER which is something like a range of 350 odd to 460 odd passengers for the family , where things will be tricky is that the lower end will be competing with an airframe of A350XWB ( the proposed streched 10) which will probably be towards the design limits , whereas the center for the lower Y3 might be higher up ( for the wing that is ) therefore a case could be made that the XWB-10 can somehow offer better CASM just like given the same size the 787-10 should offer better CASM then the A350-10XWB however we know nothing of the improvments in propulsion which will take place and what the added benefits of CFRP will be in the second gen.
By: XEROX - 3rd October 2006 at 19:21
Your right about 777-300s being new and dandy, but even though the A350XWB-xx(2012) will have much more advanced features I think airlines will prefer it simply because it would be a generation ahead of the 777.
About Y3, if it will happen, it probably won’t be ready until 2020; IV read somewhere that its a cross between a 777 and 747, interesting. I would much prefer Boeing to reinvent the sonic cruiser
By: bring_it_on - 3rd October 2006 at 18:57
Boeing had 24 or so 787 UFO’s, im guessing SQs was 20 single UFO order?
Most likely not as those 24 included 16 was the largest order and this was a order of 20 and a options for 20 .
Very very likley SQ will be a big 350XWB customer.
It would be interesting to see how many of those are -10 varient XWB’s because as i see it the -10 varient is where the XWB has good rationale , but the 773’s are quite young and dandy 🙂 so the -10 might not be needed for quite some time ( as it is it wont be available before 2014 ie. 8 years from now ) therfore leaves plenty of time for boeing to come up with a design for 787-10 and/or try to develop the Y3 so that it is offered within 2-4 years of the 350-10 going active ( 2016-2019) .
By: XEROX - 3rd October 2006 at 18:43
Boeing had 24 or so 787 UFO’s, im guessing SQs was 20 single UFO order?
Most informed sources expected a mix of 787 and 350’s for them!!
Very very likley SQ will be a big 350XWB customer.
By: bring_it_on - 3rd October 2006 at 17:23
they apparently have 20 options also on the table . Most informed sources expected a mix of 787 and 350’s for them!!
By: Bmused55 - 3rd October 2006 at 15:29
Im wondering if these will be replacments for B777s?, SQs 787s come in when they are phasing out the 777s.
Apparently that is the plan, as well as a gradual growth in capacity.
A lot of people had written off the 787 for SQ when the airline signed a letter of intent for the A350.
By: XEROX - 3rd October 2006 at 15:26
Im wondering if these will be replacments for B777s?, SQs 787s come in when they are phasing out the 777s.
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October 2, 2006 at 8:58 am