Many analysts in America are prediciting that as demand for cheaper air travel increases and oil prices rise, many airlines will go bankrupt or be forced to merge to survive, as they struggle to compete with rivals and pay the price for oil. They say that by 2020, there will be 5 dominant airlines in the world, the others being just small regional carriers and locos. So, that leads me to think, which airlines will they be? I’m guessing:
1. BA
2. Air France KLM
3. American
4. Emirates
5. China Airlines
By: Spence_CWL - 13th December 2005 at 18:45
[QUOTE=LeftcoastCanada] I’d like to see a BA/AA merger come to fruition, that would truly be closer to a ‘global’ airline.
Seems good on principle, but you can imaghine what would happen. The Americans caouldn’t stand being taken over by a foreigner, so they’ed buy BA and just make it American in all but name, slash European routes and go **** up.
By: G-CDFF - 13th December 2005 at 18:15
I’d say what most of you have already said
By: A330-300 - 13th December 2005 at 18:10
Would you happen to have a link to any articles relating to these analysts’ predictions?
By: Conor852 - 13th December 2005 at 14:11
I’d have to agree on most points,
BA.
AF-KLM,
Some sort of american consortium of all the airlines that remained profitable,
Emirates,
Possibly CX or an Asian consortum comprising CX, Singapore Airlines, Air China.
Though we’d be mindful not to rule out any of the low cost airlines
By: LeftcoastCanada - 13th December 2005 at 01:26
Not sure I agree with that prediction. Yes, there will be consolidation but the word ‘global’ leaves much to be desired. Regulation and national self-interest will preserve most of the world’s major carriers today as until all airlines are offered complete nth freedom rights they are all essentially nationally based airlines. I think there will be more consolidation within the EU and that BA will finally find someone to merge with.
On the US front CO is nowhere near going Ch11, but their CEO has publicly speculated about a merger with United. I do think that the major US airlines will consolidate more with NW and Delta possibly being taken out by AA/U/CO in some combination. I’d like to see a BA/AA merger come to fruition, that would truly be closer to a ‘global’ airline.
The other way to look at this question is – we’re already there and the number is 3. The major airline alliances Oneworld, Star and Skyteam provide the umbrella organizations to create global single branding, common service levels, local and longhaul seamless travel and group buying power. I think we’ll see more national airlines seeking to join these and perhaps the formation of another new alliance formed by those who cannot get into the Big 3. The LCCs can then live on the outside of the giants.
Myself, I’m waiting for AC to be able to buy one of the US airlines so we have a truly North American entity 😉
By: Shadow1 - 12th December 2005 at 21:50
Thinking about this leads me to believe that BA, Emirates and AF-KLM are a sure thing to survive in the long-term. However, there are many others which could fit the bill as well. Airlines such as LH and Qantas come to mind. I don’t see any American airlines surviving unless, as someone mentioned, they begin to follow US Airways and America West’s exemple to merge.
By: Spence_CWL - 12th December 2005 at 18:55
Yeh I thought of CO, but like most other US carriers they seem to be heading towards Chapter 11, in fact they’re one of the few that are not already in, but by the sounds of it they will be soon. American on the other hand seems reasonably stable.
By: MANAIRPORTMAD - 12th December 2005 at 18:50
My guess for the airlines would not be much different to you:
Emirates would have to be a definate, very rich airline.
British Airways
Air France/KLM
I think for America, I’d actually say Continental Airlines.
Japan Airlines
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December 12, 2005 at 5:59 pm