I doubt that Argentina will ever seek to re-take the islands militarily.

First of all, as John Green pointed out, the military sitiuation in the islands has changed since 1982, meaning that the Argentinians would face a much tougher task to succesfully invade the islands, even if they were able to surprise us.

But secondly, what would Argentina gain from such an invasion?

Argentina has changed since 1982. It is no longer a failing military dictatorship, but a democracy that is enjoying a high level of ecomic development. Why put that at risk with the opprobrium from the international community that an unprovoked invasion of the Falklands would generate?

I appreciate that the Falklands may be more attractive than they have in the past by virtue of the oil and gas reserves, but an invasion to secure them would again only see the international community condemning Argentina for such an aggressive act.

A much better course of action would be to wait for the oil and gas reserves to be realised and then soften their stance to allow Argentina to share some of the benefits via the support industry.

After all, if Argentina was ready to re-take the islands, wouldn’t they have done so when our attention was diverted on both Iraq and Afghanistan?

I just can’t see an invasion happening – Argentina have too much to lose.

IE