As an avid supporter of human spaceflight, I’m quite sad that the final Space Shuttle mission will soon be complete. I realize that we need to move past the Shuttle and onto other programs, just as we did with the Apollo program as well as Gemini and Mercury before it, but it’s been around for the entirety of my life and is the representation of NASA and human spaceflight in general for me.
As STS-135 comes to a close, it makes me wonder what the future holds. As we all know budget problems are crippling many of the world’s economies, and space exploration has been hit hard due to the fact that it is so very expensive (although in my opinion quite worth the money).
I started this thread to see what others think of human spaceflight (& space exploration) including what you think the future holds. In your country (wherever you live), what is being worked on that may contribute to mankind’s exploration of the cosmos?
What’s going on Europe (the ESA) or Japan? I figure at least Russia is somewhat of a constant as they have the Soyuz spacecraft that continues to provide support to the ISS. Perhaps elsewhere?
I know here in America there are commercial companies working on spacecraft to use for resupply and ultimately delivery of personnel to the ISS and that a heavy-lift vehicle for operations outside of LEO (Low-Earth Orbit) is being developed although to be honest I’m not sure how far along it has gotten as many of the shuttle’s replacements have been delayed and/or cancelled over the years.
Any other space junkies around here?
On a similar note, has anyone read the Key Publishing special about Space? I was considering a buy, but figured I’d ask for opinions of anyone who had read it.
By: Sky High - 26th July 2011 at 17:53
I remain unpersuaded!:)
By: nJayM - 26th July 2011 at 16:15
Projects are more complex and cost much much more now than …
Hi Sky High
Projects are more complex and cost much much more now than the early pioneers.
Salaries of the ‘boffins’ now escalate for fear of their being stolen by a competitor. In the old days the ‘boffins’ worked primarily for the love of their craft and mistakes were corrected by themselves through trial and error. Their salaries were relatively lower down in their priority list – they loved tinkering, experimenting and having fun with challenges.
The problems of extra expense in projects come flooding in by the fact that there is now a huge infrastructure surrounding the ‘boffins’ that often hold their creative talents back, cost the earth and act as no more than an army of planners, managers (there’s a dirty word in my book) for everything and multiple layers of sub contractors many who run on J.I.T. (also cut corners on quality in the hope no one sees, except someone usually dies instead)
The days of a scientist lifting the phone and saying “Hey guys I have made a boo boo with a measurement, how long will it take you to fix it?” are long gone. Now this would take weeks or months of expensive project meetings and the result being implemented will take another few months. Sadly the result by the time it has filtered through may be wrong and need the entire charade re-enacted.
If you want to get to Mars just put enough of the highest IQ guys in the field together and sure they’ll agree and disagree vehemently but usually will sort themselves out. Provide them the resources and reduce the questions that are irrelevant and most of all take away the layers of bureaucracy that hold the entire investment to ransom.
In the meantime if the ‘boffins’ can identify commercial benefits of getting to Mars then I am sure an Oligarch or someone similar is likely to show an interest (on a long haul pay back) to finance the project. Maybe it will happen again that a nation other than America will do it first, as did happen with the first satellite and man in space.
I am not sure about whether I agree about the indebtedness of the developed world – cut all aid at once to countries (BRIC) that are now supposedly so wealthy that they are buying up global assets. Charity must begin at home. Reserve aid for natural and other disasters in any part of the world or for countries that are still genuinely impoverished.
Quality of Mars or Hershy bars aside you may live to see a return trip to Mars by humans. I remain optimistic.
By: Sky High - 26th July 2011 at 13:57
😀 – but even then you won’t get the “bangs for your buck”, that you used to!
By: pagen01 - 26th July 2011 at 13:52
As the Dr said so well at the end of that programme, you cannot have exploration without the element of risk.
I think the only major manned Mars mission that will happen in my lifetime is when I’ve been on the road for 8 hrs and have to dive into the nearest services for a chocolate bar!
By: Sky High - 26th July 2011 at 12:40
But we are not discussing anything new here. Mistakes, in whichever you care to describe them or with whatever words you care to describe them, have affected and beset projects since projects we first conceived. You cannot factor them in, although you factor in a percentage to cover them.
It is not the economic trough to which I am referring. It is the increasing indebtedness of the Western world which will affect global finances for decades. And since the Mars project will be decades in the making I stick by my contention, but with the rider I mentioned above.
By: nJayM - 26th July 2011 at 12:30
Numerical precision and thereby avoiding errors has a lot to do with this topic
Numerical precision (including unit compatibility) and thereby avoiding errors has a lot to do with this topic.
In particular your thinking that you may not live to see a manned mission to Mars.
Errors, mistakes, disasters cause expensive set backs and delays hence numerical precision in the entire world can lengthen or shorten delivery of projects to a sensible time scale.
The recent lack of numerical precision and care in the financial world has set the developing world and in many cases the entire world in an economic melt down and all projects will be much slower and hence cost much more.
I still think you can be positive about your seeing the Mars mission as economic troughs don’t last forever.
By: Sky High - 26th July 2011 at 10:51
I remember his analogy, which I never found that convincing at the time. And it really does not have much to do with what we are debating and the point I was makng. This has nothing whatsoever to do with the inevitability of mistakes being made, but in the resources being available to see the project to fruition.
If it arrives on Mars on my 100th birrhday I’ll admit I was wrong – if I can remember how to communicate when the time comes!!
By: nJayM - 26th July 2011 at 10:35
It may be sooner but as you already probably know …
Sure a lot of money, but strange things happen in politics, economics and in the world.
You obviously will know about this very, very expensive mistake – http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7826431.stm
It’s used as a textbook example of how not to do things in many professions including accounting/auditing and was used successfully as analogies by Ewan Davies BBC when he very seriously critiqued the City for its financial scandals.
Please have a read and delve further and trust me that is just the tip of the iceberg in Numerical Precision out there. Usually in engineering it can be spotted quicker as something goes ‘kaboom’ fairly quickly.
In the accounting world there are only button pushers now who have grown up on accepting the friendly computer interface they see on the screen as where the magic happens. Hence audit after audit it passes as A OK – blind to the nightmare going on below within the actual number precision.
They unlike a few of us (still alive [just] who can read software programme code pre compiled underlying the interface) can possibly decipher when in a “large company model” ie in a large MNE, consistency in rounding (up or down), and lack of documentation where and when it is done, affects final numbers in these very large models.
You never know your wish to see a manned Mars mission – may get to “Houston we are go for launch” in your lifetime.
By: Sky High - 26th July 2011 at 08:36
Not really, Jay, but at my age I think the chances of getting to the big century are fairly remote!!;) Added to which I am doubtful that the US, or anyone else for that matter, will actually have the resources to undertake the trip…….
By: nJayM - 25th July 2011 at 20:24
Nice to know there are some fellow space nuts on the forum 🙂
A development here in the UK is the SKYLON
http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/skylon.htmlA reusable space vehicle powered by air breathing jet-rocket hybrid engines. The engines have been examined by ESA and apparently the concept is sound, prototypes are being constructed.
Essentially the biggest problem is getting into orbit. If we can do that cheaply then anything is possible.
See also http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showthread.php?t=109893&highlight=Reaction+Engines
I have met the guys from Reaction Engines – real people with a great background history in the science.
By: nJayM - 25th July 2011 at 20:19
The Mars trip is still “on the cards” I believe although sadly I will not see it realised.
Why have you planned your numbered entry through the Pearly Gates ?;)
By: jbritchford - 25th July 2011 at 13:32
Nice to know there are some fellow space nuts on the forum 🙂
A development here in the UK is the SKYLON
http://www.reactionengines.co.uk/skylon.html
A reusable space vehicle powered by air breathing jet-rocket hybrid engines. The engines have been examined by ESA and apparently the concept is sound, prototypes are being constructed.
Another thing that’s being developed is the VASMIR, which could turn into a useful engine for getting around the solar system:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_Specific_Impulse_Magnetoplasma_Rocket
Also, this talk gives some interesting thoughts on the future of spaceflight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8PlzDgFQMM
Essentially the biggest problem is getting into orbit. If we can do that cheaply then anything is possible.
By: Arthur Pewtey - 25th July 2011 at 10:10
Major adventures like space travel will always be a struggle as long as humans are squabbling over trivia such as religion and nationality.
By: Sky High - 25th July 2011 at 09:57
Thanks for the tip, Pagen.:) I knew it was on and then forgot!! I will look out for repeats or find it on iPlayer.
By: pagen01 - 24th July 2011 at 22:23
Did anyone see ‘Space Shuttle – The Final Mission’ on BBC2 tonight?
I can honestly say that I have never seen a single programme that has covered a space mission so beautifully as this one, from the candid flight and ground crew interviews, access to facilities to the incredible footage of behind the scenes and the various parts of the flight.
The landing training missions carried out in Gulfstream IIs with the engines in reverse thrust mode was amazing to watch.
It was all the better for being put together and hosted by British ex NASA worker Dr Kevin Fong who obviously could get closer access than many.
Even if you are only slightly interested in space flight or the Shuttle do try and catch a repeat of this programme – BBC at its best!
By: Lincoln 7 - 20th July 2011 at 10:54
And after a few Millenia, when we have learned everything we need to know about Space,if we havn’t blasted ourselves into oblivion, we could then explore, Seas, Oceans, etc on Earth.
All of which, we know very little about.
Jim.
Lincoln .7
By: Sky High - 20th July 2011 at 08:41
The Mars trip is still “on the cards” I believe although sadly I will not see it realised. I sincerely hope it is, but manned spaceflight will always be battling the costs – for any country.
By: PhantomII - 20th July 2011 at 01:51
I agree…I wish we had the money and will to invest in a modernized (i.e. safer) version of the STS program. It has proven invaluable in so many things over the past three decades including the ISS itself as well as other items such as the Hubble Space Telescope. Surely there could still be a need for something with the capabilities of the STS…I’m sure many would disagree with me.
Personally I think there is a place for operations in LEO as well as deep space.
One problem I think NASA (and indeed space exploration has in general) is that the general public takes everything they do for granted. The Shuttle program almost became routine to the general public (though I’d bet those at NASA never, ever thought of it in that way), and as such the politicians running our government have been more inclined to ignore what NASA does and what it has provided for our nation.
I just hope we have enough space junkies among us to ensure that NASA (along with up and coming commercial companies) continues to operate as it always has, blazing a trail of exploration and discovery the likes of which the world has never seen…at least not yet.
God Speed to Atlantis and her crew…they are the final part of an epic program in American (& world) history!
By: pagen01 - 19th July 2011 at 20:56
Hi PII, I started thread on the last shuttle flight in the historic section.
Personally I think it is a sad moment, like you I grew up with the Shuttle programme and I think ending it is a retrograde move, I think the STS programme should have been strengthened and modernised.
My prediction for future space programmes is bleak, all satellites, probes and space tourists in lower orbit.
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July 19, 2011 at 8:48 pm