The USA will NOT commit her troops

people, people, just my 5-cents worth

IMHO, the US will NOT want to commit her troops

The US DOD Annual Defense Review 2001, had SOD, Rumsfeld, saying that in any war with China over Taiwan, the US would withdraw her Carriers and all surface vessels out of te South China Sea and back to HAwaii. As such, the US wll use long-range bombrers from GUAM. The American public, in a Poll had overwhemingly disapproved sending troops to intervene in an Isreali-Arab conflict. And in view of the US setback in IRAQ, it is safe to say that the US may be very reluctant to poke her nose into any PRC-Taiwan war

An American Naval officer had written that any US CVCG (carrier task-force) approaching the China-Mainland has to face;
(1) some 30 submarines, the Russian KILOs , Chinese “Songs” with SKUVALS cavitating torpedoes and cruise missiles
(2) RICHARD FISHER of the JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION has claimed that PRC DF-21 are precision-guided and accurate enough to be used against US Carriers
(3) US carriers will face a “devastating barrage of a rain of (a) land-based attack cruise missiles with range of up to 1500 kms,(b) airborne AShM with ranges og 350km (in overwheming numbers) (c) naval launched AShM like the “SUNBURNS” (PRC has 300). The US has NO defense against these supersonic AShM,US radar cannot detect them on time)
(4) and 1000s of anti-shipping mines
This US Naval guy also concluded that CVCGs carriers are too expensive to invest, and too vulnerable to missiles and subs—sitting ducke, so said he

So, I’m sorry to have to say to all my Taiwanese friends, face the REALITY, ie the US will keep all her 18 year-olds boys and girls safety out of harm’s way in HAWAII and ……….FIGHT TO THE LAST TAIWANESE……..

well thats an overly rosey analysis of the situation. i dont think america will fight, but im not willing to rule out the possibility either.

much will depend on the circumstances that started the conflict.

added:

also, your analysis under estimates the ability of the US armed forces and over estimates the effectiveness of china’s weapons. if the US is really commited to fighting china, it can pretty much keep the chinese military on the mainland. but it would be extremely costly for the US, and i just dont see any US government being that commited to fighting for taiwan.

the only possibility i can think of where the US could be that commited to fighting china over anything is if china attacked the US first, either pearl harbour style or 9/11 style. neither is even remotely likely.