OK Kev, here’s the raw figures

A straight line from Woodhall to the crash site is some 240 statute miles.

In still air, cruising at 185 mph it would take some 1hr 19 minutes
In still air cruising at 220 mph it would take 1hr 06 minutes

But once we start to factor in a 40 mph wind

The 185 mph Lancaster takes 1hr 40 minutes struggling against a headwind or 1hr 05 minutes with a tailwind

The 220 mph Lancaster takes 1hr 21 minutes with the headwind or 56 minutes with the tailwind.

So the ‘spread’, remembering that winds stronger than 40 mph are encountered, is between 56 minutes and 1 hr 40 minutes.

With a full war load the aircraft would probably be at the slower end of the speed range until fuel burned off and the payload was disposed of.

How does that work for you?

Things that would help.

1) Any clue as to the routing of the bomber stream that night? If it had been a direct routing (unlikely) then the bulk of the times you have given me indicate an average speed of around 135 mph. This is very unlikely, the route must have been more circuitous.

2) Winds aloft would be too much to hope for

3) Time over target to tie into the other times you gave above. This would at least give some indication of the wind state.

Moggy