I think inaccuracy would be much bigger than a few miles. Looking at the dirty bomb again a big inaccuracy in the system might lead to the irradiation of a suburb or the hinterlands. The big target – the city center is unlikely to be hit. Still not a fail, but not a big win. Worth inviting direct regime change – doubtful.
If someone lobs a dirty bomb at my country, whether it hits the intended target or not, “regime change” is going to be a real polite way of putting what I’d advocate to happen to the country that launched the weapon. I think they’d only wish we stopped at “regime change”…