fifty years might be too long. I was reading a report about populations of all things and right now China’s has spiked. Europe’s is in decline. Russia’s seems to be in decline. The US’s is steadily growing, don’t recall what India’s is projected as.

Chinas population grew 0.6% last year. It’s growing from demographic inertia now: total fertility rate is less than replacement. But there’s enough inertia to keep that going for a long time, & with over 1300 million people, a gentle decline in population is a potential social problem, not a “we’re running out of people!” problem.

The US population is growing by a mixture of demographic inertia (TFR about replacement) & immigration. 0.9% last year.

Europes population – depends on where you draw the boundaries. The EU population is growing slowly, but as much by immigration as anything else. Some countries would have growing populations without immigration, but none have TFR above replacement.

Russias population is declining quite fast (-0.4%), through a combination of very low birth rate & emigration. There is no demographic inertia, since the birth rate has been low for a long time & life expectancy, especially for men, has decreased in the last 30 years – though it’s starting to rise again.

Indias population is rising (1.4%) , & set to keep doing so for quite a while, though at decreasing rates. It’s expected to overtake China. The fertility rate is still above replacement, though dropping fast.

Quite a few countries around the world have below replacement fertility rates, some of which may surprise you, e.g. Iran, Brazil, Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam & Algeria. Mexico & Indonesia are about where the UK was in the 1960s, i.e. less than the USA back then.