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Reply To: Soon to be 4th A380 Operator

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#517381
Schorsch
Participant

The article simply points to the fact that the 747-8 is not cancelled and that it’s on target for it’s first flight later this year

I talked about the B747-8I, the passenger variant, which

  • will require much more certification effort (and additional two flight test aircraft),
  • has much lower customer count (actually, it is one),
  • is not competitive in terms of fuel burn versus its lower capacity (B777-300ER, A350-1000) or higher capacity (A380-800) competitors
  • does currently sit in the deep negative cash flow region for Boeing als Lufthansa basically payed production costs (40% discount on list price)
  • is even by Boeing not expected to score more than 70 sales, and versus the A380 will never score big sales prices

On top of that put the fact that the most likely additional customers (Japanese airlines) are currently virtually bankrupt.

At the moment Boeing is doing a complete program for 105 orders, less than 25 of them for the passenger version, which will require huge additional design and certification effort on top of the freighter. Facing the challenge of cash shortfall in 2010 and huge additional costs in the future for B787-9 development and second production line, I see a big stop sign coming ahead of the -8I.