Just want to make sure I understand, you believe the composite 787 with all new GeNX engines won’t be able to compete with the 1993 technology A330, and that the 360-540,000 lb MTOW 787 is gonna kill off the 545-766,000 lb MTOW 777 series? In the wake of the fuel spike of the last few years, the 787 seems like the right airplane at the right time to me. I guess everyone has an opinion, but I can’t say I agree with yours. Seems like the airlines don’t either, with 700ish 787 firm orders still on the books and a healthy backlog still existing on the 777.

I also find it rather interesting that you feel a 3-5% weight savings on an airplane with a 610,000 lb OEW is economically unjustifiable. Especially at a time when the entire A380 program appears to be economically unjustifiable on the basis of sales performance to date. Even Airbus stopped publicly quoting a breakeven airframe figure in 2006, at what was it, some 430 frames?

I’ll buy you a beer when MSN700 rolls off the line, providing I am still alive in 2040. Perhaps the Chinese will have replace Boeing by then and Airbus will have long term competition.

A business case to design an aircraft that only gains by reducing the OEW about 3-5% is indeed not working. There is not potential in terms of engines (and you can basically retrofit every new engine technology to the A380). The whole thing is very unattractive for a profit-oriented company, especially as sales seem not to be so wonderful.

The B787 replaces B767-300 in the first place, competes versus the A330-200 and may replace some B777-200ER. Strange that no B777-200 was sold since, but quite a lot A330s.

And don’t fixate on the fact that A330 was first rolled out 1993: even the aircraft designed in the 60ies or 70ies are remarkably efficient, see B747 (which even in its newest version bears very strong resemblance to the 1968 design).