200 Soviet nuclear bombers over North America – 1962 National Intelligence Estimate

A National Intelligence Estimate dated July 6, 1962 estimated that “the Soviets could now put about 200 bombers over North America on two-way missions in initial attacks; of these nearly half could be heavy bombers.”

http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v08/d96

Long Range Aviation

20. Soviet Long Range Aviation, by reason of its equipment, basing, and deployment, is much better suited to Eurasian operations than to intercontinental attack. We estimate that as of mid-1962 Long Range Aviation comprises some 165 heavy bombers and 950 jet medium bombers. 7 Virtually all of the medium bombers are Badgers, but a few supersonic Blinders have probably now been delivered to units. It is unlikely that a new heavy bomber will be developed for operational use.8 Recent trends indicate little change in total aircraft strength over the next two years.

[Here follows a table that shows totals of 115 Bison bombers, 75 Bear bombers, and 10 follow-on heavy tankers by mid-1964.] [Footnote in the source text.]

ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF LONG RANGE AVIATION 1962-1964

Bombers and Tankers Mid-1962 Mid-1963 Mid-1964
Heavy
Bison…………… 110 110 100
Bear……………. 55 55 50
Total……………. 165 165 150
Medium
Badger…………… 950 900 800
Blinder………….. a few 50 100
Total……………. 950 950 900

21. In attempting to overcome the range limitations of Long Range Aviation for intercontinental attack, the Soviets have given considerable emphasis to aerial refueling and Arctic training in Badger and Bison units. Most of the Bears have been modified to deliver 350 n.m. air-to-surface missiles. We believe that the Soviets might plan to commit as many as 400-500 aircraft to initial attacks on North America. Considering a variety of operational factors, but excluding combat attrition, we estimate that the Soviets could now put about 200 bombers over North America on two-way missions in initial attacks; of these nearly half could be heavy bombers. The patterns of Arctic training and base utilization indicate that aircraft would probably be staged through a few bases in successive waves over a number of hours.9