40 years in the future?

Shale oil can’t substitute crude oil, but it would surely give us a good few more years. There are also serious environmental considerations to take into account – mining and processing it is nasty business. Anyway, maybe they come up with a solution.

Best bet is to move away from oil for heating and electricity, and anywhere a sustainable substitute is available. Then we might have fuel for a few more airshows 😎

I totally agree. If the dumheads had got their act together 10 or more years ago, we would be close to generating 70% of our electricity from nuclear power and perhaps by about 2025 we still might. And global reserves of natural gas are considerable with fewer problems involved in accessing them.

True DCK, there is actually a thriving community of WWII flight simulation players. I have passed a few simulator fora and they are very clued in about the actual history behind the games.

Warbird simulation could easily lead to a real passion for physical aircraft. The question is: are the project groups actively looking for recruits in that age group?

Anyway, I think the cost of warbird operations will sky-rocket within the next 40 years and it will be the larger groups who can afford to operate them, rather than individuals, or small exclusive groups.

I’m 29 myself.

Let’s look at it this way, I am sure this debate was ongoing 30 years ago as well. With most likely the same grim aspects going around, that the youngsters doesn’t give two cents.

Some of us do, and it is also something “that comes with age”.

I am not a mechanic and wouldn’t know anything about that, or the people in the business or anything. I’m simply speaking about historic aviation interest, or interest in ww2 alone.

Again, it is something that grows with age. Don’t expect a 20 year old to understand how the world operates, where we come from and where we are going. As you grow older, you tend to understand the world around you more and develop certain interests in understanding the world you live in. It takes coming of age.

When that’s said, yeah – it looks a bit grim at times. I’ve held two talks about my book the past month, and I was talking to people from 50 and up, all the way to 80 I’m sure. One was a “local book night” and that too, I have to assume (to not go depressed) is also something that comes with age to attend.

There are interest in this. Just head over to Hitech’s Aces High and look at all those players flying those Warbirds in simulated dogfights.

But will a Spitfire fly in 40 years? Yes it will. It will be just as pretty then as now. It will never grow out of fashion. Engine problems? Oil problems? Maybe, but they will be around.

Thanks Matt… thats the problem, I cant find any locally!!:eek:

where are you?

There are strong arguments that shale oil reserves will be recoverable within 20 years. They would add about 130 years at current usages.

Shale oil can’t substitute crude oil, but it would surely give us a good few more years. There are also serious environmental considerations to take into account – mining and processing it is nasty business. Anyway, maybe they come up with a solution.

Best bet is to move away from oil for heating and electricity, and anywhere a sustainable substitute is available. Then we might have fuel for a few more airshows 😎

The US alone uses 20 million barrels a day, out of a total of 85 million barrels consumed globally every day. With the Canadian 173 billion barrels we get 5 years extra – with the current consumption.

The total estimated economically recoverable proven oil reserve (including the recoverable part of the Canadian Athabasca Tar Sands) is 1357 billion barrels globally, or about 43 years with the current consumption (although we are currently not recovering the oil at that speed). They will not find double that number from new fields, but maybe another 20 years worth of hard to get and very expensive oil. Once we get beyond that, recovering the oil becomes prohibitively expensive.

Well in advance of that 43 year date, we will find our private oil consumption severely limited, as nations withhold their reserves for essential industry use. This will unfortunately make gas guzzling warbirds a true thing of the past – if emission legislation has not killed them before.

We are running on Bingo fuel, there are no two ways about it and the oil will run out. We will be the last generation with affordable oil and within a few generations, there will be no oil at all – Siltz, None, Nada, Nil, Zip, Zero!

There are strong arguments that shale oil reserves will be recoverable within 20 years. They would add about 130 years at current usages.

Great post, B-17 Buff! There IS hope 😀

Advice? Find a project as local as you can get (don’t worry about it being ‘glamorous’, it all looks the same when you’re covered in old oil and freezing your bits off in a big shed), and sign up for the NAHSI scheme if you can.

Thanks Matt… thats the problem, I cant find any locally!!:eek:

Well, there IS always a reasonable chance of a decent synthetic fuel being produced. After all, the Germans made fuel in the war through synthetic processes.

The US alone uses 20 million barrels a day, out of a total of 85 million barrels consumed globally every day. With the Canadian 173 billion barrels we get 5 years extra – with the current consumption.

The total estimated economically recoverable proven oil reserve (including the recoverable part of the Canadian Athabasca Tar Sands) is 1357 billion barrels globally, or about 43 years with the current consumption (although we are currently not recovering the oil at that speed). They will not find double that number from new fields, but maybe another 20 years worth of hard to get and very expensive oil. Once we get beyond that, recovering the oil becomes prohibitively expensive.

Well in advance of that 43 year date, we will find our private oil consumption severely limited, as nations withhold their reserves for essential industry use. This will unfortunately make gas guzzling warbirds a true thing of the past – if emission legislation has not killed them before.

We are running on Bingo fuel, there are no two ways about it and the oil will run out. We will be the last generation with affordable oil and within a few generations, there will be no oil at all – Siltz, None, Nada, Nil, Zip, Zero!

Sky High, Hi(!!)
I agree with you. I spent a couple of years inspecting (inter alia) the meteorological instrumentation on oil/gas rigs/platforms (mainly for their insurance purposes). The “easy” fields are becoming exhausted, and the more difficult fields are having to be tapped. When they begin to run out then the “Very Difficult” fields will have to be attempted. As you say, the exploration/production firms will want to see some (a lot!) money back for their efforts. Then bring in the fact that a significant percentage of those “Difficult Fields” may be in areas of political instability (he said cautiously!) and even the entire Athabasca Tar Sands, etc, may not provide enough aviation avgas/paraffin to allow enthusiasts to fly their aeroplanes after their Govt’s senior persons have done a jolly, or two. Except at a horrendous price!!!
Price and Politics – what chance aviation enthusiasts? They have no political, financial, or economic clout. Therefore (3 dots), logically – and using reasoned argument – the pastime is doomed within the next 40 years (or even earlier!). I am not a doomsayer, but merely proposing a reasonable hypothesis!
HTH
Resmoroh

As a young and impressionable historic aviation nut I turned up at the hangar of a well-known single-aircraft warbird operation with an introduction and an attempt at an ingratiating smile, offering to do no more than make tea and polish things. I was treated in a very off-hand way, and the memory of that reception has stayed with me, even though I am now completely involved in another project with a far more friendly and inclusive outlook.

If this is how young ‘keenies’ are regarded by any particular operation then there might be a problem keeping things going. It’s worth remembering we were all young, clueless but keen once!

Although i’m still with the group I first started with, for a couple of years in between i’ve lived away for University and tried to get involved with various museums/organisations (not just aviation) and had a similar reception, despite previous experience – wonder how many young people don’t bother getting involved because of the reception they get when they try to

Resmoroh – the oil will not have run out. There are billions of barrels available for drilling but no one will take up the licenses until they can be sure they will see a return of the investment, which, in some geographical areas, will be huge.

Stability at between 85 and 100 dollars a barrel will open up untapped reserves.

Hi Guys,

Just my 2 cents as they say…

I am one of those of which you speak, I would love to hear any advice or leads that may help at least one member of the younger generation get actively involved in what he feels so passionately for!

Great post, B-17 Buff! There IS hope 😀

Advice? Find a project as local as you can get (don’t worry about it being ‘glamorous’, it all looks the same when you’re covered in old oil and freezing your bits off in a big shed), and sign up for the NAHSI scheme if you can.

uh oh, now I’m an “aging cohort” 🙁

Oops! Not meant personally 🙂

As a young and impressionable historic aviation nut I turned up at the hangar of a well-known single-aircraft warbird operation with an introduction and an attempt at an ingratiating smile, offering to do no more than make tea and polish things. I was treated in a very off-hand way, and the memory of that reception has stayed with me, even though I am now completely involved in another project with a far more friendly and inclusive outlook.

If this is how young ‘keenies’ are regarded by any particular operation then there might be a problem keeping things going. It’s worth remembering we were all young, clueless but keen once!

Having said that, most people in this game are lovely individuals (regardless of ageing!!) as witness this forum 🙂

Here’s a sad/frightening thought.

My Grandaughter (She’s only three now), I’m sure, will be of the generation that will witness the removal of all the WWI & WWII war memorials from every City, Town & Village etc, because it will be deemed (by European Parliament) as ‘no longer relevant’ or ‘politically correct’ (maybe even embarrasing) to be reminded that so many lives were lost, whilst at war with our ‘European Brothers’

I’m convinced that this will happen. Especially when the last immediate family of the veterans (Grandchildren) have also passed on and there will be no-one left who remembers or cares anymore.

What do you think?

I personally hope that I will be long gone before this ocurrs.

Why on earth would the European Parliament remove your local memorials?

I’m not a great believer in the EU, but where do you see any indication, that such measures will even be considered. It’s this kind of wild speculation, which detracts attention from actual political problems in regards to the EU. If anything, your own government might consider their removal before the EU is even aware of them.

The United States (not so unlike EU) still have memorials for both the northern and southern sides of their civil war. There are also still Roman war memorials around, even in countries once forcefully under Roman rule.

I think you can rest assured, that your granddaughter, and even her children, will have those lovely English memorials in towns and villages to reflect on the sacrifice made by the past generations. Whenever I find myself in the UK, I always take the time to read them – more people than you expect, are doing the same.

Here’s a sad/frightening thought.

My Grandaughter (She’s only three now), I’m sure, will be of the generation that will witness the removal of all the WWI & WWII war memorials from every City, Town & Village etc, because it will be deemed (by European Parliament) as ‘no longer relevant’ or ‘politically correct’ (maybe even embarrasing) to be reminded that so many lives were lost, whilst at war with our ‘European Brothers’

I’m convinced that this will happen. Especially when the last immediate family of the veterans (Grandchildren) have also passed on and there will be no-one left who remembers or cares anymore.

What do you think?

I personally hope that I will be long gone before this ocurrs.

You think so? I doubt that very much, as unless the rest of Europe has a complete reversal in its thinking, we’d be execrated by every other European country for such a move. Go to France & look at their war memorials. Look at how well they look after the memorials they have put up to British soldiers who died in WW2 (& yes, there are such memorials).

Here’s a sad/frightening thought.

My Grandaughter (She’s only three now), I’m sure, will be of the generation that will witness the removal of all the WWI & WWII war memorials from every City, Town & Village etc, because it will be deemed (by European Parliament) as ‘no longer relevant’ or ‘politically correct’ (maybe even embarrasing) to be reminded that so many lives were lost, whilst at war with our ‘European Brothers’

I’m convinced that this will happen. Especially when the last immediate family of the veterans (Grandchildren) have also passed on and there will be no-one left who remembers or cares anymore.

What do you think?

I personally hope that I will be long gone before this ocurrs.

Twin Otter 23 said

……. As for skills being lost, if you are in any way mechanically minded and have access to AP’s, pams or whatever nothing should be too hard.

Paul

I understand the time issue only too well but some of the skills I was thinking of go back to basics – like turning a part from a block of metal; a bit like the projects the early Halton ‘Brats’ had to complete. That’s what my father-in-law is very good at doing, often with no plans to work to!

In the UK school children today get limited exposure to using lathes etc in RM (Resistant Materials). As a consequence might not have the basic mechanical experience to stimulate any interest.

There is perhaps some hope and an interesting analogy came about in the mid 1990s when Newark’s then Restoration Co-ordinator was challenged with re-fabricing the Anson. His most recent skill sets were aircraft metal working so he went back to his Halton training notes and then he ‘relearnt’ the aircraft fabric skills that he was once taught. Do the Armed Forces teach even basic metal working any longer?

NAM now face a similar challenge when it comes to re-covering the Monospar, talk has been heard from some volunteers of ‘relearning’ their radio controlled model fabric skills!

As for the visitors take on this; I’m always pleased to see the engagement NAM’s volunteers have with the public who seem intrigued by the work that is being undertaken on different projects. One venue that has capitalised on this ‘intrigue’ on a regular basis is the National Railway Museum with “The Works” … http://www.nrm.org.uk/PlanaVisit/VisitYork/museumareas/theworks.aspx

… a full-time scheme that IMHO the aviation sector could learn a lot from.

Hi Guys,

I’ve been reading this thread with great interest. I’m 27 and have had a love of aviation all my life and have had a passion for historic aviation since I was 10 years old. I live and breathe warbirds and read flypast and WIX everyday although I don’t often post unless I have something relevent to say. I have spent many a day daydreaming in front of a warbird or on an old airfield for which I have visited many. One of my highlights was making personal contact with Bob Morgan the pilot of the real Memphis Belle when I was in my teens who arranged for me to visit the aircraft when she was in Memphis in the late 90’s. I used to help out at my local D-Day museum also when I was in my teens in the 90’s at Shoreham Airport long before it closed and spent many an hour listening to veterans tell ‘their’ story. I subsequently trained as a licensed aircraft engineer before going on to university to study aircraft engineering in which I worked for a couple of years before I was able to fund my real passion and train as a commercial pilot. I completed this training in the summer.

It is true there are very few people of my age that seem to be interested in historic aviation although I do know one or two. There is a slight stigma that it is a grandad ‘hobby’ for which I sometimes get stick from my friends! Sometimes I feel as a ‘younger’ member of the fraternity that it is hard to get taken ‘seriously’ when discussing historic aircraft or talking to individuals. I would love to get involved in restorations should there of been a museum closer to me that needed volunteers (I wish I was based closer to Duxford!). Moreover I would love to get involved in flying historic aircraft but unfortunately i do not know anyone as a ‘way in’.

For me, getting involved actively in historic aviation from a ‘hands-on’ point of view feels very difficult as organisations are few and far between and there is a feel that it is mainly for those who are of the older generation, who have money or whose family are involved already in historic aircraft.

Just my 2 cents as they say…

I am one of those of which you speak, I would love to hear any advice or leads that may help at least one member of the younger generation get actively involved in what he feels so passionately for!

Twin Otter 23 said

The automobiles sector raises an interesting point – my father-in-law is in his mid 80s and he’s still producing / repairing parts for the vintage automobile sector, precisely because there aren’t many youngsters who’ve got the skills to produce the parts.

This is just a thought but as people reach retirement age do they have more time to tinker around producing/repairing parts and spending half their time volunteering at the local museum? Being in my thirties I know there is not enough time in the day to go to work, spend time with the kids, serve part time in the military, do work around the house, relax, visit family and friends, work on my own project and lastly sleep. In 40 years from now I imagine my personal situation will be different.

As for skills being lost, if you are in any way mechanically minded and have access to AP’s, pams or whatever nothing should be too hard.

Paul