Yes, I am back. I couldn’t stay away from this one. Interesting Dateline programme on Georgia tonight had me thinking.
First some facts;
The Pankisi gorge region on the Georgian/Chechnya border houses significant numbers of Chechen rebels; it is this region that apparently houses Al Qaida links and is to be the focus of the ‘anti-terror’ drive by US-supported Georgian forces.
According to the Georgian news media the Al Qaida, if they ever were there, have left the Pankisi region.
Assassination attempts have been made before on President Eduard Shevardnadze, the leader of the Georgian republic.
As part of the “War on Terrorism”, at the end of February 2002 the United States began offering assistance to Georgia to combat the militants, with $64 million and approximately 200 Special Operations Forces to train and equip four 300-man Georgian battalions with light weapons, vehicles and communications.
Russia has bombed villages in the Pankisi gorge in recent months claiming they are housing Chechen rebels launching attacks on Russia.
US interests in Georgia are linked in the long run not to anti-terror Ops but to oil, and a new pipeline venture from the Caspian Sea through Georgia and into Turkey. This pipeline will go through the war torn autonomous Abkhasia region of Georgia; so Georgian stability is paramount to US interests.
The Russians still have several active military bases in Georgia.
Russian nationalists have threatened to support Abkhasian independence against Georgia if the Georgian leadership upsets them further with allowing further US influence in the region. Putin is not alarmed by the US presence, but the Russian parliament is somewhat unsettled apparently.
Now, the Hypothetical game
Under increased political pressure not visible on the surface Putin agrees to move on the Georgian ‘concern’ and attempt to oust the US told hold before it becomes a foothold or worse.
Russian forces start moving toward the Georgian border near the Pankisi gorge and tell the US they are preparing a new operation against Chechen rebels there.
A corrupt Georgian army colonel assassinates President Eduard Shevardnadze and with high level support in both political and army circles declares a coup and takes control of T`bilisi, the capital of Georgia.
Fighting breaks out between Georgian army factions, Russian forces fly in rapidly under the guise of restoring order, but in reality are supporting the new regime in the long-term goals. The new regime wants full control of all of Georgia with Russian assistance and the Russians want the US out and Chechens hiding there dead.
The US soon realises that the Russians are clearly assisting in crushing the old guard and the pro-government army faction is soon in tatters, most surrender, but some scatter.
US protests to Moscow fall on deaf ears. US military advisors in Georgia are now in peril, but all major airports quickly fall under new regime’s control, the US troops are trapped for now.
Russian troops pour into Georgia and start operations into the Pankisi gorge almost immediately. Moscow claims President Eduard Shevardnadze was degrading Caucasian security and tries to implicate him in gun running and drug trading in the Pankisi gorge in support of Chechen militants. The US doesn’t buy it.
The US demands immediate access to its personnel now trapped in the region. The Russians oblige, but the in a major development Chechen rebels capture some of the Americans and attempt to use them as a bargain chip to force the Russians to back off.
Question: What does the US do about this situation?
Regards, Glenn.
By: JAG - 29th April 2002 at 13:08
RE: A Georgian scenario
The regime which supports US which there only becauce of oil and keeps the regime in power… while reacen poll shows 87% of citizens say they hate USA. Strong religious leaders and movements.
It sound similar to conditions that existed in a neigbouring nation before religious revolution. You wander have the Americans learned something from past that would help them reocurance of the incident?
By: Glenn - 29th April 2002 at 09:20
RE: A Georgian scenario
A Saudi coup?? Now that would be interesting to say the least.
Regards, Glenn.
By: Arabella-Cox - 29th April 2002 at 08:43
RE: A Georgian scenario
“
The US reaction is obviously going to depend on how bad it wants access to that oil and to what extent it will go to get it. “
Yes, I agree with Squasher.
Make it more interesting (if you want a serious confrontation) by having the Saudi Monarchy overthrown 6 months before with an anti US regime in power… ie desperation for secure cheap oil but a need to keep forces in reserve for a potential attack by Saudi Arabia on Kuwaite and an alliance with Iraq… I can hear the drilling rigs heading for the antarctic now…
By: squasher - 26th April 2002 at 09:45
RE: A Georgian scenario
The US reaction is obviously going to depend on how bad it wants access to that oil and to what extent it will go to get it. In the face of full scale Russian resistance, IMO the US will back down, especially if body bags start coming home and the Russians can mount an effective proporganda campaign about US “greed” etc.
The US will not risk an armed confrontation with the Russians in that region, simply because they will not have a frontline nation to base themselves. Further, NATO will not really support them as their interests are not involved and they will always have to live with Russia on their borders.
The past few years has shown that the US policy for military solutions starts with getting the backing and sanction of the world community ( a reason they are still hesitating to attack Iraq). I dont see the world nodding its assent at a dangerous spiral.
The US has taccitly agreed that the former CIS states are Russia’s backyard and I see the Russians safeguarding their interests to the full.
By: JAG - 26th April 2002 at 02:36
RE: A Georgian scenario
I does not sound far fetched… with US “interests” getting now right on the Russian borders (and we can all asume how yanks would react uf ruskies found new “interests in lets say cuba) there is little wonder Russian Nationalists are agitated. the area is one of the biggest untaped reservoairs of oil in world, and US is prety adoment in securing the cheap source of it.. ie doing everything to by pass russia.
Frankly and sayinf it openly.. it would be rather stupid decision for russia not to get involved considering potential financial gain.. its far more worth it than checenia… yet there is a problem of significant resistance which will in no doubt be supported by USA who wont at all be happy but appart from military aid could do nothing else. Russians perhaps could counter this by threatning to supply arms to places where USA would not like to see them.. Say providing some AA batteries to lebanon would certainly piss off Israel and their strong loby goups in USA who’d want to stop it.
Im not saying the Russians should return to Cold war tik for tak moves but they have to start taking stonger and more agresive stands specialy to US if they want to improve thir situation.
By: Arabella-Cox - 26th April 2002 at 01:59
RE: A Georgian scenario
“The Russians oblige, but the in a major development Chechen rebels capture some of the Americans and attempt to use them as a bargain chip to force the Russians to back off.”
The Chechens kidnapping US troops would be counter productive. Either the US would attempt a rescue with Russian blessing and assistance or the Russians would go in themselves. Every US soldier killed would make the Chechens the enemy.
Ignoring the US hostages complication I think if there is enough opposition to the Russian presence the US will just do exactly as they did in Afghanistan and supply the “rebels” with weapons and training till they get their way. In afganistan “their way” was simply the defeat of the Soviets and nothing to do with peace and stability in the region… which is why when the sovs withdrew so did the US support… In Chechnia “their way” would be as you say an oil pipeline that bypasses less friendly (to the US) states… tha is what it is all about… cheap oil.
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April 24, 2002 at 1:44 pm