Air Defence Options for PAF

Air Defense Options for PAF-
A Paper by Abdul Razaqq

The PAF today finds itself at a crossroads. From the US largesse of the 1980s to the harsh sanctions of today, the PAF has grown, both in maturity as a fighting force, and also in realisation of the impact of realpolitik on force structures. In the 1980s, the PAF was at its peak- in morale, equipment and stature. It received a boost in capability with the arrival of the F-16 which was unparalleled in PAF history- even the F-104 of the 60s was sold in too small numbers to be of much impact. The Paf quickly mastered its new steed, and put it to good use, scoring over 30 kills against Russian planes without loss. The 1980s also saw the PAF achieve a huge qualitative gap against the Indian Air Force. No neutral analyst can hope to argue that IAF’s old MiG-23 and the obsolete Mig-23 could have hoped to be any match for the PAF’s F-16s and upgraded Mirages.

Then things began to change- the treacherous Pressler amendment ensured the US failed on its promised delivery of more F-16s. At the same time, a militaristic India began to embark on a huge miltary build up- including Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 fighters. While this nearly bankrupted her economy in the crisis of the 1990-92 period, it ensured a quantum leap in IAF air combat capability. This threat has continued in the 90s with India acquiring even more MiG-29s, recently concluding a deal for 10 more Mirage 2000s. and trying to induct more Su-30s. Pakistan continued to reel from sanctions and while its squadrons are razor sharp, new equipment has been hard to come by- the PAF having to rely on upgraded Mirage IIIs and F-7s from China. These alonf with F-16s are now the cutting edge of the PAFs air combat fleet.

The Threat Assessment

In terms of equipment, one can argue that the IAF has gone ahead of PAF. According to latest figures, air combat assets are:

IAF:
300+ MiG-21
45 MiG-23MF
45 Mirage 2000
70 MiG-29
18 Su-30

PAF:
32 F-16
120 Mirage III
120 F-7 Airguard

The IAF MiG-21 are old and unreliable, but are available in too large quantities to be ignored. The F-7 of the PAF is more than a match for even the MiG-21Bis, but at best the entire PAF F-7 fleet and half of Mirage fleet is required just to counter the MiG-21 threat. The remaining top PAF fighters – 32 F-16s and 60 Mirages find themselves arrayed against 200 IAF jets- a 2 to 1 edge for the IAF. While the MiG-23 is old and worth little in a dogfight, it does have decent BVR capability, which would give it a real edge v/s PAF Mirages. The other IAF planes (MiG-29, Mirage 2000, Su-30) are all modern and even taking into account superb PAF training, will prove to be a huge challenge for PAF since they outnumber PAF F-16 fleet by 5 to 1.

Thus the key challenge for the PAF is to ensure it has enough high end air combat assets to tackle this threat- since the low end of the Indian threat is more than adequately met by F-7s and Mirage IIIs.

The Options:

More F-16s- the ideal scenario, since PAF is well acquanited with the type, But unlikely given Western sanctions
Rafale/Typhoon- again, great aircraft, but the West is unreliable and unsustainable as shown by their treachery of the 1980s.
FC-10- China is working on this new plane with PAF assistance, but its service entry status is uncertain at best due a long and difficult development process. So it would be unwise to put all our eggs in this basket.
Second Hand MiG-29- this may come as a shock to some readers, but the author contends that this is in fact the best and most cost efficient option for the PAF. This should not be too surprising consideing the Pakistani Army has recently bought T-80s from Poland. The key reasons for this line of thinking are:
a) Easy availability- many ex East Bloc nations (Poland, Hungary etc) and former Russian republics have many Mig-29s which they cannot afford to maintain and upgrade.
b) Cost efficient- Due to the precarious situation in the above countries, the PAF will likely get a great deal on these
c) Experience- the PAF is well acquanited with the type, both having studied it to counter the IAF, and actual flying experience with the Syrian and Iraqi and Bangladeshi Air Forces.

Potential issues are:
a) Avionics- many have old, primitive Russian radar and avionics- this can be easily redressed by experience gains in the FC-1 project, where Chinese and PAF engineers have tried to reverse engineer western radars with some success
b) Weapons- supply of Russian AAMs may be suspect, as their capability. Lead options to tackle this are to refit them to fire AIM-9L and AIM-7, already in PAF service- not a very difficult task.
c) Servicing- Living under sanctions for years, the PAF has built up impressive capabilities in this regard- so this should not be a big problem. For spares, the PAF can always turn to friendly nations like Syria, Iraq, Bangladesh or China.

The author recommends the acquisition of at least 3 squadrons of used MiG-29s upgarded as reflected above. This would at one stroke wipe out the threat outlined above, and it would in a way be poetic justice if IAF pilots in a future aggression face their own steed staring back- only with PAF aces at the helm!!