Airbus Re-considering panels approach on A350

The EIS may slip further by 12 months or so –

Airbus prepares to shift to all-composite barrel on A350 XWB

Airbus is set to make yet another design change to its A350 XWB, this time dumping composite panels on an aluminum frame for an all-composite barrel.

Pressure from major customers such as Emirates and ILFC is believed to be the catalyst for the pending revamp. News of the move, first flagged by this website in January (ATWOnline, Jan. 26), comes the same week that Boeing started final assembly on the 787.

While Emirates President Tim Clark told media the Dreamliner’s finish resembled “a polished silver coffeepot,” Airbus has been getting mixed reaction to its composite panel concept. Trade studies have been underway in Toulouse since late last year, according to company insiders. Last fall, ATWOnline revealed that Airbus was switching to the composite panel design from all-aluminum and that the aircraft’s entry into service would slip to 2014 (ATWOnline, Oct. 25, 2006).

This latest change may push the EIS further out, but Clark told this website he repeatedly has told Airbus that “while the EIS is of concern, you must get it [the design] right.” Singapore Airlines and Qatar Airways have pushed a similar message. Clark also has emphasized to the manufacturer that the future lies in a 787-style composite barrel structure, saying, “That is the way [the industry] is going to go.”

Many at Airbus have been concerned that the A350 XWB “would be blown away” if Boeing turned to an all-composite 777 that could be built and enter service before the A350. With its rival capitalizing on a technology that eventually will flow through to both a 777 and a 737 replacement, Airbus must choose whether to move forward with an all-composite barrel or be left behind. Clark has stressed that he is “sold on the 787’s 40% reduction in maintenance,” something not possible with an aluminum frame.

So far, Airbus has been able to convert only one customer, Finnair (ATWOnline, March 9), to the new XWB, while it has secured new orders from Aeroflot (ATWOnline, March 23) and Pegasus Aviation (ATWOnline, Jan. 5). SIA (20), China Aviation Supplies Import and Export Group (20) and TAP Portugal (10) have yet to confirm their orders, while US Airways appears to be leaning toward the aircraft (ATWOnline, May 17).

The change to an all-composite barrel is expected to be confirmed at the Paris Air Show along with several major commitments from airlines and leasing companies. The move will affect Boeing, which has been waiting on Airbus to define the XWB before proceeding with the 787-10. The European company’s shift to all-composite likely will push Boeing to move to a larger 787-10, possibly seating 330. That version requires a higher gross weight and bigger undercarriage (six wheel trucks) to meet range requirements and will need more passengers to compete with the claimed numbers for the XWB-900.

The original A350 was unveiled in September 2004 and “authority to offer” was announced that December. Full industrial launch came in October 2005, but the aircraft faced a redesign following criticism that began with ILFC Chairman and CEO Steven Udvar-Hazy’s call for a revamp 14 months ago (ATWOnline, March 30, 2006). Airbus introduced the XWB last summer at Farnborough (ATWOnline, July 18, 2006) and launched the program in December (ATWOnline, Dec. 4, 2006).

by Geoffrey Thomas

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=9009

So thats like 7 years out , and i would suspect around 9 years out for the
77W competitor . The approach engineering wise makes a lot of sence , many people had earlier expressed reservations on the superiority of the panels approach as compared to the barrel approach , however what airbus was probably looking at was that with less complexity ( not design wise but interms of industrialization of production process) the panel approach meant that they could EIS earlier . However having said that 2014,2015,2016 ( -900 , -800 , -1000) seems to be awfully long time specially considering the fact that looking at the demand for jets like the 787 , 330 and 777 (heck even the 767) the airlines seem to be wanting these babies now , and it isnt clear how the demand curve would be in 2014 . It could well be that the demand curve would have peaked by 2014-2020 timeframe , as orders keep pilling in like crazy. I think airbus (and boeing) expect this sized market to be something like 4000-5000 frames in the next 20 years , the 787 has allready clocked up something like 600 , and will push close to 1000 in the comming years . Add to that the increase in production post 2010 that boeing is contemplating , launch of other variants and options top up ( the dreamliner IIRC is very close to 1000 if one counts orders and options) and we could well be in a situation where aircrafts like 787 , 330 and 777 have clogged up over 2500 aircrafts from the market.

Also if airbus doesnt do something about the cross section ( the 350 isnt a geniune 10 abreast aircraft , and its cross section is not too much different from the 787) then it puts them at great risk , because post 2015 boeing could always come out with a Y3 who’s lower limit could be similar to that of the -10XWB and could be a geniune 10 abreast aircraft thus putting that aircraft ( which looks like the only aircraft the dreamliner cannot touch) in jeopardy and at a disadvantage .

All the XWB mess , constant changing is mess , and airbus has royally screwed up ( like boeing in the past) , they will now (if this story is true) miss the mark and introduce a very similar aircraft to the 787 ( yes wider but % wise it is very comparable ) but something like 6-8 years later.