Attrition and activity

Here’s a bizarre theory.

I’ve noticed aircraft accident rates have become quite low in recent years for European airforces in last 3 or so years.

Whilst some of this maybe due to increased safety procedures, how much of it is due to reduced flying hours and less exercises?

It’s interesting for example that the RAAF has only lost 4 out of 75 F/A-18s in over 20+ years (loss rate of 5%). The Spaniards have lost 10 out of 96 (loss rate of 10%). This includes some in mid-air collisions during ACM.

Does this indicate less intense usage by RAAF in terms of air combat maneouvring and exercises (though flight hours are certainly being used up due components becoming worn out, though it turned out some of that was due to ground runs). At one stage the combined F-111/F/A-18 fleet only had 40-odd pilots which probably reduced flight hours.

The French on the other hand have already lost 5 Rafales in operational service, whereas total Eurofighter operational accidents is 1 (Spanish aircraft).

Is this is an indication of less intense usage by Eurofighter users?

Even the HAF’s attrition rate has improved over last couple of years (last F-16 lost 2010, last M2000 2011 – they used to average 1-2 jets lost per annum). Is this due to economic factors limiting flight hours?

Attrition is a sad fact of fast jet operations. Aircraft are flown to their limits in what are dangerous maneouvres – this results in human error and technical malfunctions.

Some of the proof in the pudding is F-104 attrition – high accident rates occured in bad weather at low level. Yet the Spaniards who used theirs as interceptors never lost a single jet.