Brexit – Naval implications

Unless the Orkney islands vote to stay, which they did by 70% last time. They have a history separate to Scotland and this would keep most of North Sea oil too.

Yeah, but there’s no provision to break up Scotland & let Orkney & Shetland (not just Orkney!) stay in the UK if Scotland secedes, any more than Bristol, Oxford, Brighton or Reading (all with far more people than Orkney & Shetland) can stay in the EU if the UK leaves, despite voting Remain.

” Needless to say fiercely beweaponed hulls dont really appear on the scope for that kind of regulatory duty…”

Quite, was rather alarmed at a post above which advocated upgunning them to 6lbers! The odd illegal fishing episode by foreign trawler men may require some loss of teeth but not that sort of firepower. 🙂

Not the sharp end but the everyday mundane duties which still constitute the primary aims of a Navy, but which appear to be almost completely lacking at present. I am assuming this will be an RN function rather than another civilian agency being set up from scratch.

Might be a bad excuse to tinker around with with drones at the high end, more likely small and unarmed OPVs backed up by civvy contracted MPAs.

What are we thinking in terms of numbers and budget though?

I take it you are referring to my post when talking about 6 lbers on the 90m batch 2,s however I would not have them plodding around UK waters look for fisherman that is a job for the 80m batch 1’s more over it is about making best use of a class of ships that the navy did not want by reducing the load on the type 23’s as it now turns out that until the type 45’s are refitted to operate in hot conditions it would seem the 23’s will need to pick up the slack so by off loading some standing patrols the 23’s will have a high but more comfortable operating rate

” Needless to say fiercely beweaponed hulls dont really appear on the scope for that kind of regulatory duty…”

Quite, was rather alarmed at a post above which advocated upgunning them to 6lbers! The odd illegal fishing episode by foreign trawler men may require some loss of teeth but not that sort of firepower. 🙂

Not the sharp end but the everyday mundane duties which still constitute the primary aims of a Navy, but which appear to be almost completely lacking at present. I am assuming this will be an RN function rather than another civilian agency being set up from scratch.

Might be a bad excuse to tinker around with with drones at the high end, more likely small and unarmed OPVs backed up by civvy contracted MPAs.

What are we thinking in terms of numbers and budget though?

I was thinking more along the lines of what assets are needed to patrol our EEZ than ill informed speculation about the SAS capturing Sturgeon…. :sleeping:

Chaffers the problem with answering the question is that about 80% of the question is absent!.

What would our EEZ look like?. Does its northernmost boundary hit North Sea on a line extending out to sea from Berwick one side to Carlisle the other?. Already I read that the RN FPS does little in Scottish waters anyway. Where we to drop out of EFCA, which would seem likely, would we wish to stay ‘compatible’ with their systems….I’d suggest so. They, from memory, use the same VMS as the US as well so it would seem absurd to step out of widely employed system for monitoring and management…to then have to build a national one and integrate that.

If we’re staying ‘tied-in’ to the common VMS surveillance is an easier proposition…the issue becomes compliance with whatever our independent regulations are…if these are in fact different to what EFCA sets. Needless to say fiercely beweaponed hulls dont really appear on the scope for that kind of regulatory duty…some analogy of Marine Scotland would seem to make sense. With the new RN 90m opvs as backup.

I was thinking more along the lines of what assets are needed to patrol our EEZ than ill informed speculation about the SAS capturing Sturgeon…. :sleeping:

What I am suggesting is that if London blocks the attempt by Scotland to hold a second referendum — as a number of posters and articles have claimed it has the power to do — this would be absolutely disastrous, as even Scots who did not previously support leaving the UK would not bear the affront of being denied the right to decide themselves. People can bear many things, but not an assault upon their dignity. Support in Scotland for independence would go through the roof and, being denied a peaceful means of achieving that independence, would find outlet in violent separatism which would itself have universally baleful implications for all concerned.

To be arrested and charged with high treason then the country would have to be ‘invaded’ to capture the leadership…! And as you say the armed forces contain a significant percentage of Scottish personnel, who might have something to say on the subject… I don’t for one second see this scenario playing out, but these are going to be strange times and strange things can happen and wars have started for far less… This is going to be a messy divorce and maybe the EU will want to keep custody of Scotland!

The cost of replacing the loss of Coulport and Faslane, combined with the already increasing costs of the Vanguard replacements would certainly be an eyewatering expense though which could cripple the ‘UK’ defence budget for a number of years to come… Though if it comes to be, I’d put my money on Milford Haven, the other locations would probably crash due to environmental concerns.

You would assume Steve that the referendum would not be a thing easy to keep secret!. The motive forces behind the attempt would be exposed fairly early by the need to introduce legislation to make it an officially recognisable process with a clear mandate as a result. I dont think we’d need to send in SAS to extract Sturgeon from a bunker below Holyrood!. :highly_amused:

Milford Haven has much to recommend it, but, it does see a fair degree of traffic….if you want to deconflict and sanitise to stop a tattletale latching to a sortieing boat ideally its good practice to be able to catalogue and identify everything in the area. Morecambe-Barrow would have the advantage of friendly shores either side of the immediate body of water and most of the traffic is north-south….very little goes east-west into the bay itself. Also theres a need for investment in the area and the locals are used to defence and nuclear sites.

Rii

If Westminster tries this then they’re even dumber than I think they are.

Its possible for you to have a lower opinion???. That does surprise me….you do come across as a sort of Guy Fawkes-ish personality already Rii. Only good one is a dead one etc….unless they are communists of course…then theyre ok arent they?!.

The simple fact is of course they wouldnt as any attempt to hold a referendum wouldnt be done in secret and therefore no vote to leave the union could be sprung on Westminster. Sturgeon has already told the media that the Edinburgh Govt has started the process of drafting legislation for a second referendum. Steve’s scenario, as he has said, is a thought excercise only!

If the Westminster government say no at the moment the answer is that they dont secede.

If Westminster tries this then they’re even dumber than I think they are.

[QUOTE=Jonesy;2321398]If the Westminster government say no at the moment the answer is that they dont secede. Theoretically the SNP leadership would be guilty of high treason and jailed if they managed to conduct an unsanctioned referendum and declared independence. In reality of course there would need to be negotiation and agreement before the 2nd referendum could be taken.

To be arrested and charged with high treason then the country would have to be ‘invaded’ to capture the leadership…! And as you say the armed forces contain a significant percentage of Scottish personnel, who might have something to say on the subject… I don’t for one second see this scenario playing out, but these are going to be strange times and strange things can happen and wars have started for far less… This is going to be a messy divorce and maybe the EU will want to keep custody of Scotland!

The cost of replacing the loss of Coulport and Faslane, combined with the already increasing costs of the Vanguard replacements would certainly be an eyewatering expense though which could cripple the ‘UK’ defence budget for a number of years to come… Though if it comes to be, I’d put my money on Milford Haven, the other locations would probably crash due to environmental concerns.

So here is another thought… Scotland demands a second independence referendum, the Westminster Government says no… so the SNP holds one anyway, wins with a large majority and declares independence the day after… What does the ‘UK’ do then? Overnight the UK nuclear deterrent is left in limbo, the second carrier and the means to dry dock the newly completed QE have been lost, as has most of the active ship building capacity….

So does the ‘UK’ use military force to try to reverse it or accept the situation…? Does Mr Putin deploy his little Green Men to help the peace-loving Scottish people keep their freedom…? Does a EU peacekeeper force deploy along the border…?

Fact could become stranger than fiction…

If the Westminster government say no at the moment the answer is that they dont secede. Theoretically the SNP leadership would be guilty of high treason and jailed if they managed to conduct an unsanctioned referendum and declared independence. In reality of course there would need to be negotiation and agreement before the 2nd referendum could be taken.

In this instance Scotland leaving, on good terms, would be a little-change option. The yards in Scotland are commercially owned so, unless they were suddenly nationalised, contracts with the parent company for drydocking etc would still be valid. The assumption would be that the new Edinburgh govt would be keen to still see warship orders placed at those yards and would not wish to jeopardise a long relationship with the UK MoD.

The deterrent would have to move and Coulport closed of course and new permanent homes found. Likely a new base to deconflict CASD traffic and maintain security. Somewhere around Morecambe Bay up to Barrow would probably be most practical that springs to mind….though there’s a couple of spots on the Antrim coast that would be interesting.

The big problem would be personnel. I dont know what the exact composition of the services are today….but the RN and RAF always had a very good proportion of Scots in the ranks. Losing them would be disastrous and there would be great difficulties in having foreign nationals serving in large numbers in ships companies etc. Without a common foreign policy Edinburgh would presumably have to have some form of veto on the operations that its people might be called on to undertake. Manpower could be a far more crippling problem than any lack of ships or basing.

djcross
If they secede, who will pay for all those on the dole?

….see Portugal.

as I have said else where as the next few years roll on and the 5 new River class ships come on line place one on Atlantic patrol North full time also place the second ship in the Med full time with 2 more stationed East of Seuz full time along side a Type 23/26/45 or Bay Class this would serve to reduce the pressure on the Type 23’s in the short term and if need be extend the type 23’s serves life. we would leave the Batch 1 rivers to carry on with there task in UK waters this said I would like to see the New ships up gunned to the 57mm in line with USCG & USN Littoral Ships and in the case of the ships in the Med and E of S a Phalanx

What EEZ? Won’t the Scots get a hell of a lot of it when they secede?

Unless the Orkney islands vote to stay, which they did by 70% last time. They have a history separate to Scotland and this would keep most of North Sea oil too.

Do we really need another BREXIT thread that will rapidly descend in two sided arguments by people who lets be honest have no idea what will happen and whether it was a good idea… I come on here to get away from all that madness…!

So here is another thought… Scotland demands a second independence referendum, the Westminster Government says no… so the SNP holds one anyway, wins with a large majority and declares independence the day after… What does the ‘UK’ do then? Overnight the UK nuclear deterrent is left in limbo, the second carrier and the means to dry dock the newly completed QE have been lost, as has most of the active ship building capacity….

So does the ‘UK’ use military force to try to reverse it or accept the situation…? Does Mr Putin deploy his little Green Men to help the peace-loving Scottish people keep their freedom…? Does a EU peacekeeper force deploy along the border…?

Fact could become stranger than fiction…

I would’ve thought that recent results would instill some doubt about the capacity of economic arguments to sway voters.

If they secede, who will pay for all those on the dole?

They can secede. Denying it is denying reality.

They can’t.

Couldn’t afford it even if they did.

What EEZ? Won’t the Scots get a hell of a lot of it when they secede?