Brexit no deal-planes will stop?

And now a French company has bought the controlling share in Gatwick…..I assume they know that traffic from that airport often flies through European skies!

Thank you all for your contributions and the web address of the CAA website. There are several scenarios that have to be covered even with flying. The CAA have done a lot of work trying to plan options.

After 40+ years of membership, loads of ‘T V debates’, and the detailed work that has to be done even for a clean break; to have had everything reduced to ‘control of our boarders’, a bus with ‘… 5 hospitals could be built..’ and ‘sovereignty of Westminster’ (which surely has been disappearing since before Suez),

I am left feeling that to coin a phrase we are travelling on a wing and a prayer and keeping our fingers crossed too.

Clock’s ticking……

From the CAA’s website:

https://www.caa.co.uk/our-work/about-us/eu-exit/

From the CAA’s website:

https://www.caa.co.uk/our-work/about-us/eu-exit/

I look at it as our licences etc will simply change over night, they will cross out EASA and add CAA in felt tip. The rest of the world has more or less adopted part 145 so we will carry on using it, it’s just the title on the top that will change, 99.99% of everything else will remain more or less the same.

The problems will come with mods etc as they are carried out by different countries as opposed to how it was all in house, that and stuff like flight testing etc where the departments were more or less shut down.. Oh, and the fact the CAA have neither the staff, nor the staff with the qualifications needed to see it through, they are a pittance of their former self.

I have heard from a very reliable source that the CAA have a large group working on the presumption we have a “Hard Brexit”.
No matter what happens there will be changes but I cannot see everything grinding to a halt.

Your last para. Just a stop gap method to ensure continuity on the day – if necessary. The process of modification will begin, if it hasn’t already, with the ICAO providing oversight.

I’m hoping so Paul F, that there is some agreement, it is my career after all. Given the complete disarray with the current government I can quite easily see this and many other things slipping through however without agreement. My confidence is not high. Doom monger? realistic? only time will tell. There’s an awful lot to do in very little time, and as it stands, NOTHING has been signed or even indicated to date.

As for lifting and shifting, it’s ironic isn’t it that the UK would practice EU rules, but now no longer have a say in them. Is this the sovereignty people were talking about?

To quote Agent K : “But to return to the question, yes, if no agreements are signed and implemented then by default, whether intended or not, aircraft will NOT be flying or operating, despite comments of “I’m sure it’ll be OK” and “I’d be surprised if nothing happens”. “

But, assuming all current EU Legislation is ‘cut and pasted’ (known as ‘lifted and shifted’ in Westminster I believe) onto UK Statutes as proposed, then UK will meet all current EU requirements and regulations in all aspects/areas of business (at least on “Day 1”, and thereafter until any UK-invoked changes are made subsequently). So, in theory, any aviation ‘agreement’ between UK and EU should be straightforward as both parties will share the same standards (at least to start with) etc. Thus, there seems to be little that should get in the way of maintaining the status quo in terms of aviation.

And, despite what the doom mongers are saying, if EU digs it’s heels in then BOTH sides will be adversely affected, as an EU ‘ban’ on UK operators would no doubt trigger an equally unhelpful and simultaneous UK ‘ban’ on EU operators entering/operating within UK, so there seems to be an incentive for both sides to adopt a pragmatic working agreement, at least in the short term.

That said, I knew that a few months ago (via briefings from Govt Departments related to my own industry), all Government Departments had been told to prepare plans for managing all possible Brexit scenarios, from ‘full deal’ to ‘no deal’ – so I assume Dept of Transport/CAA etc will have been trying to draw up plans to cover all Brexit eventualities too.

Somehow I doubt the current UK-EU transport links will end at 00:00.01 on Brexit Day 1, whatever the current posturing – commercial enterprises on both sides have too much to lose, and eventually the politicians will realise that and adopt a pragmatic approach (I hope!).

Yes, which is the point. Not just the shower at the helm, but also the shower in waiting.

I think we are veering massively off topic – if anyone is interested, we can resume the old discussion in GD.

Bruce

But to return to the question, yes, if no agreements are signed and implemented then by default, whether intended or not, aircraft will NOT be flying or operating, despite comments of “I’m sure it’ll be OK” and “I’d be surprised if nothing happens”.

I have little, sorry, no, confidence in the shower currently at the helm, who had stated that this would be the easiest agreement in human history to sign – yet 24 months after – NOTHING! not even a proposal or even a MOU. So with less than 20% of the available time remaining, the UK is no further forward. Given this and the incompetence at the top, this is very worrying indeed.

I’d be very very surprised if we didn’t. Much of the world – correction, most of the world gets along quite happily outside the commercial protectionism of the EU. Bilateral agreements covering most human activities exist quite happily. The option is there to use these agreements as a basis to tailor a bespoke version to suit your needs (apologies for the appalling puns).

In any event, such should not be necessary. Commercial traffic between GB and the EU is far from evenhanded. I’m sure that none of us can imagine that the EU would be so foolish as to metaphorically shoot itself in the foot which would surely be the only outcome if they, the EU, attempted to impose barriers and sanctions arising from a mistaken belief that this will persuade GB to water down or abandon Brexit.

No. My forecast is that commonsense will prevail based on ‘more of the same’. In similar style to the function of the WTO, perhaps ICAO could be asked to provide a stopgap ‘one size fits all’ framework that would find acceptance. But, I don’t think that that will be necessary.

Fine – as long as we have something to replace it with, I’m sure it wont be an issue. We do have something, don’t we?

Perhaps not, especially if we continue to be subject to the extremes of the ECJ.

Indeed John, we will ‘Stay In’ that part of the EU framework…

The imperatives of reciprocity means that there will be no change. Obvious really !

Viscount, I suppose what really upset me was that the response so far on this thread has echoed the situation on the news broadcasts and in parliament.

I posted in Commercial Aviation because the people who are in the trade, so to speak, would be able to enlighten me on the nuts and bolts of leaving and highlight those areas which could / would present the most problems. Or the benefits.

Beejay, you knew the two extremes of answer before you asked the question, so why get upset at the response to your question?

Both answers are correct, as indeed are a whole bunch of other potential responses: which becomes the actual correct answer only time and the actions of British and EC negotiators on deadline day will tell. No amount of forum discussion/prediction/comment will change the outcome however.