The Prime Minister has today, 4 December 2006, signalled the Government’s intention to maintain Britain’s nuclear deterrent beyond the 2020s.
The Government’s proposals for maintaining the deterrent have been published today in a white paper. They will receive a vote in Parliament in the early part of next year.
An exhaustive review of possible future nuclear threats and deterrent options has shown that renewing the Trident system, by replacing the existing submarines and extending the life of the Trident missiles, is the best and most cost-effective way to maintain our ability to deter future nuclear threats to the UK.
The Secretary of State for Defence, Des Browne said:
“It is the job of Government to strike a balance between working towards a safer world, and protecting the security of the UK and its citizens, both now and in the future. The UK’s security situation has changed since the end of the Cold War, but while the threat has changed, it has not gone away.
“The number of countries equipped with nuclear weapons has continued to grow. We cannot rule out the possibility that at some point in the next fifty years Britain could face a new nuclear threat. To decide now to run down our deterrent would be taking a huge gamble with Britain’s future security. A gamble I am not prepared to take.”
As part of the Government’s ongoing commitment to working towards disarmament, the Prime Minister also announced a further 20 per cent reduction in the number of nuclear warheads. We have already reduced our operationally available stockpile to less than 200 and today’s decision will see that number reduced to less than 160.
The procurement costs of renewing the Trident system will average around £1 billion per annum during 2012-2027, which is comparable to what the current system cost, and less than 0.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The investment required to maintain our deterrent will not come at the expense of the conventional capabilities our Armed Forces need.
The Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, said:
“This decision to retain our deterrent at minimum levels is fully compatible with all our international legal obligations. We remain committed to working for a world free of nuclear weapons. I am pleased that it has been possible to take further practical steps in this direction in this White Paper. The UK now has the smallest arsenal of the five recognised nuclear weapons powers. And the UK now accounts for only one per cent of the global stockpile of nuclear weapons.”
Three possible future scenarios are identified in the white paper that could develop over the coming decades: the re-emergence of a strategic nuclear threat; the emergence of new nuclear powers that could threaten British vital interests; and the deliberate equipping of terrorist groups with nuclear weapons by a state sponsor. To be effective the UK’s deterrent must be able to operate independently, be immune from pre-emptive action and reach the territory of any potential aggressor. The most credible and cost-effective method of delivering this remains the minimum independent nuclear deterrent provided by a submarine based deterrent system.
Britain has maintained an operational nuclear deterrent since 1956. Today’s decision allows for this to continue beyond the 2020s, potentially into the 2050s. Since 1969 there has been a nuclear armed British submarine continuously at sea somewhere in the world’s oceans. Uniquely among the nuclear weapons states recognised under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Britain has reduced its deterrent to a single nuclear weapons system: the Trident D5 missile on board four Vanguard class submarines.
The first of the current Vanguard fleet, HMS Vanguard, was launched in 1992 and the second, HMS Victorious, in 1994. The submarines have a design life of 25 years. A successor to Vanguard is expected to take 17 years to develop from the concept phase through to final operational deployment, so a decision is needed now if we are to maintain continuous deterrence patrolling.
The first new submarine needs to be operational by the time HMS Victorious leaves service in 2024.
BACKGROUND NOTES:
1. A full analysis of potential future nuclear threats and deterrent options is set out in the White Paper, published today on the Ministry of Defence website. Factsheets accompanying the White Paper can also be found on the website.
2. The White Paper states clearly that, despite some success with our efforts to counter the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, large stockpiles remain and are in some cases being modernised or expanded. In addition, there is a risk of further proliferation.
3. In this uncertain world we cannot say with confidence that Britain will not face a nuclear threat over the next 20-50 years – the lifetime of a successor submarine force.
4. Three possible future scenarios are identified that could develop over the coming decades: the re-emergence of a strategic nuclear threat; the emergence of new nuclear powers that could threaten British vital interests; and the deliberate equipping of terrorist groups with nuclear weapons by a state sponsor. To be effective the UK’s deterrent must be able to operate independently, be immune from pre-emptive action and reach the territory of any potential aggressor. The most credible and cost-effective method of delivering this remains the minimum independent nuclear deterrent provided by a submarine based deterrent system.
5. While maintaining our own national security, Britain also has a responsibility, under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to work for a world free from nuclear weapons. Until that becomes possible through multilateral negotiations, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty specifically acknowledges Britain as a nuclear weapons state.
6. Today’s announcement underlines Britain’s commitment to reducing our holding of nuclear weapons. We have already reduced our operationally available stockpile to less than 200 and today’s decision will see that number reduced to less than 160.
7. Britain has maintained an operational nuclear deterrent since 1956. Today’s decision allows for this to continue beyond the 2020s, potentially into the 2050s. Since 1969 there has been a nuclear armed British submarine continuously at sea somewhere in the world’s oceans. Uniquely among the nuclear weapons states recognised under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Britain has reduced its deterrent to a single nuclear weapons system: the Trident D5 missile on board four Vanguard class submarines.
8. The first of the current Vanguard fleet, HMS Vanguard, was launched in 1992, and the second, HMS Victorious, in 1994. The submarines have a design life of 25 years, and at most this can be safely extended for around 5 years. Based on our experience of building nuclear submarines, and that of the US and France, we estimate that a successor to Vanguard will take 17 years to develop from the concept phase through to final operational deployment, so a decision is needed now. If we are to maintain continuous deterrence patrolling the first new submarine needs to be operational by around the time HMS Victorious leaves service in 2024. Although the knowledge developments of the Vanguard class took 14 years, a good deal of design and concept work took place in the preceding decade.
9. Britain will participate in the Trident D5 Life Extension programme which will extend the life of the missile into the early 2040s. This will only prevent obsolescence; it will not enhance the capability of the missile. (ends)
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December 5, 2006 at 9:24 pm