Budget airlines 'bloodbath'…?

Very interesting opinion there tenthije, however, I do notice that you have not included Flybe into the list of low-cost airlines. Any particular reason for this, seeing as they are an up-and-coming airline since the recent take over of BA Connect? Incidentally, it has been reported that Flybe’s stats for LGW-IOM has improved significantly since the takeover of BACON…so it is not all doom and gloom for the loco’s.:D

Well, it is of course impossible to mention all loco’s. But I would not be surprised if BA in a few years time realised that having a domestic network is not that bad an idea. After all, they are BRITISH Airways, not SW-London Airways.

I think the loco’s will be here to stay, but there will be consolidation.

I would not be surprised if in 10 years time there will be 3 or 4 large legacies left and another 3 or 4 large loco’s. This along with a number of smaller carriers that have carved a nice little niche.

My gues for the next ten years is for the following airlines to continue, largely carved up along the current alliance groups (not necessarily under their current name):

• AF/KL/AZ/Malev
• LH/LX/BD/SK/LOT
• BA/EI/IB

And for the low-cost carriers:

• Ryanair
• Air Berlin + Skyeurope
• Easyjet + Wizz + Jet2

As mentioned there will be some outsiders as well. Niche players that cater for a particular group. My guess would be for:

• Virgin – reason: they only do long-haul which makes it less then an ideal take-over partner for anyone but BA. And the anti-trust autorities would shoot down any attempt at that based on the LHR position.
• SNBA – they are too small a partner to be really interesting and wedged inbetween AMS and CDG, with FRA not that far away either. They are nice for Belgians and eurocrats, but other then that noone really does take them serious. They are a nice niche and as long as they do not become too ambitious they should be fine.
• TAP, match made in heaven for IB, but would the anti-trust autorities take it?
• VLM – the little airline that could. Only KLM and BA could be interested nn taking them. But BA has stated not to be that bothered by LCY, and KLM can forget it on the ground of anti-trust legislation. Just like with SNBA, as long as they do not become overly ambitious they should be fine. Only risk is that the F50 will some day need replacing. When that happens it will be costly. Unilke 2nd hand F50s, new build planes tend to cost real money. But this should be something VLM can manage.

Very interesting opinion there tenthije, however, I do notice that you have not included Flybe into the list of low-cost airlines. Any particular reason for this, seeing as they are an up-and-coming airline since the recent take over of BA Connect? Incidentally, it has been reported that Flybe’s stats for LGW-IOM has improved significantly since the takeover of BACON…so it is not all doom and gloom for the loco’s.:D

I think the loco’s will be here to stay, but there will be consolidation.

I would not be surprised if in 10 years time there will be 3 or 4 large legacies left and another 3 or 4 large loco’s. This along with a number of smaller carriers that have carved a nice little niche.

My gues for the next ten years is for the following airlines to continue, largely carved up along the current alliance groups (not necessarily under their current name):

And for the low-cost carriers:

As mentioned there will be some outsiders as well. Niche players that cater for a particular group. My guess would be for: