Israel
A Syrian S-200 did shoot down an F-16 before and they could have targeted the f-16s with their S-400 but instead of killing Israeli pilots because of Syria’s fault they put a few s-300s in Damascus which pissed off Israel as it covers their airspace.
3.
https://www.raytheon.com/sites/default/files/news/rtnwcm/groups/public/…
In case for those that are going to argue with me on point 2 saying something like,
” F-35 has receivers to let it know not to expose too much of itself from being tracked by the S-400 such as going at a close enough distance from not getting tracked, therefore not compromising its stealth and flying away a safe distance.”
Fair point, but I do know that most stealth aircrafts take priority in covering up the fire control frequency band with their receivers. If you look at pg 26 and pg 40 you will see what frequencies these receivers are for. This means that the UHF and VHF radars that all come with S-400s can monitor the F-35 and the F-35 will not know that it is being monitored by these frequencies because they are alot more lower than what the F-35 can receive. I have heard that the Next gen jammer, or any other presented AESA GaN jammers can receive frequencies as low as VHF and UHF. But as far as I know the Barricuda systems has not been upgraded yet. So if the Israelis are saying that they are getting close to a long range air defense system like the S-400 than the Russians really do not need Turkey to compromise the aircraft if Israel is doing it for them.
Damascus according to a simple google search is about 60kms away from Israel’s border. And because of a certain little IL-20 incident that has happened the Russians have sent a few s-300s which come with different frequency band radars the Israelis were sure as hell pissed off knowing that it covers parts of their airspace. Israel is a lot smaller in size than Poland and Russians can pull the same methods because they have an agreement with Israel to not target each other’s troops.
Israel is a skinny narrow country in appearance which I am sure the Russians can freely fly in Syria’s territory. Also they can ask permission probably from Egypt if they can fly in their territory to get a better view on Israel’s opposite side. I believe Jordan is out of the question since news reports say the US is expanding bases over there. Also if most of Israel’s airstrikes consist of flying through Lebanon the Russians wont mind doing the same thing.
one more very important thing to consider and that is passive sensors that come with the S-400 like the Moskva-1 if you are getting close to a long range air defense system in enemy territory I do not think you would want to turn your radar off if an enemy aircraft out on patrol got lucky crossing your path close enough to fire a missile at you. In other words your letting your RF emissions get monitored(if you argue LPI radar there are claimed passive sensors that can monitor LPI radars) and they are gathering intelligence compromising the aircraft.
4.
With doppler shifting an earlier generation OTH radar than the container radar can get an 80 meter resolution. However with newer software and upgrades in 2018 helped improve their already new generation OTH radar. Stealth as far as I know is not immune to HF frequencies and currently even GaN receivers cant cover this frequency so using this along with satellite information they can get further intel when Israel’s F-35s have took off.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/446157-hype…ssile-russian/
““This was the first OTH radar capable of monitoring airspace up to a range of over 3,000km. Its coverage included airspace over Poland, Germany, and the Baltics all the way to Turkey, Syria and Israel.
Unlike the Duga, the Container’s signal is reflected by the ionosphere only once, allowing for more accurate target detection. This allows it to track even small planes over Western Europe. The station can detect a mass launch towards Russia of cruise missiles, deployments of aircraft and hypersonic cruise missiles, when they are ready.”
They will know when Israel will begin to fly those F-35s and when they are going to land. In other words this would give the Russians enough time to send their aircrafts out for a scout further deteriorating Israel’s capability to even get close to an S-400.
5.
As everyone hates to admit it crashes and accidents happen all the time and you are also raising your chances in enemy territory. And if you are flying close to long range air defenses in Syria and all of a sudden a certain incident happens you have compromised the entire F-35 program and your country will suffer serious repercussions to other F-35 customers now knowing that adversaries have this information and can share this information.
Poland
There are going to be stupidly powerful ground radars next to Poland which I have heard are receiving 32 F-35s. If the Russians wanted to they could have stuck the Voronezh-SM in Kalingrad or at Belarus border and monitor Poland’s airspace through a broad fire control frequency instead of Crimea’s planned installation. Russians have claimed a 2 megawatt ground radar in S-band from the army expo 2019 that can track a 5m2 target at 3000kms away the Voronezh-SM is a bigger beast than this system.
http://members.home.nl/7seas/radcalc.htm
There are certain altitudes and locations Poland would have to fly these aircrafts at without getting monitored by ground radars but lets raise this threat with another idea.
JLENS
Flying radar with a 10,000ft altitude / 3.048km altitude. Russians currently have a 1km altitude photonic radar prototype. So lets say Russians decide to invest money to in raising to 3km. According to that altitude Poland would have to be forced to fly at even lower altitudes from far away with 24/7 coverage in a fire control band. Also we simply cant tell them to fly around with the Luneburg lenses because they would have not purchased the F-35 in the 1st place if they cant have stealth.
Also the mig-31 has reached an altitude of 37,650 meters so you can cover Poland in its entirety and just like the Luneburg idea its not like we can say no since they have a very small bubble to fly these aircrafts which means there would still be no point to fly them if they are offered with a very small airspace.
Same rules applies to Poland as does with Israel with those 5 points.
The Russians do not show any desperation to get any data of the F-35. They can easily do it legally as shown here which I am sure that the U.S. knows about. They know exactly when F-35s can take off be it OTH radars or satellites(some they claim in the future to track low altitude targets). Plan their missions according to when these aircrafts take off or where they head to getting periodic coordinates by OTH radars. In my honest opinion countries buying 5th gens should feel like they are free to do what they want with them in their own air space instead of buying them just to be paranoid. In other words my conclusions lies on one of those 2 points because no country would be interested in buying 5th gen aircrafts to barely use them by making them appear as 4th gen RCS aircrafts(they could have bought these instead if that was the case) with Luneburg lenses or lower their altitudes or not go to certain parts of their country to fly their aircrafts because of radar installations close by.
Turkey can buy future ships from the russians or mobilize their air defenses close to greece or Romania as future F-35 customers or Russians can buy information from the chinese as they can sail their growing Navy around South Korea and Japan. I can already see Russians getting information about the F-35 anyways so why not let Turkey practice their S-400 with the F-35 with all these points into consideration?
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September 28, 2019 at 2:43 am