March 3, 2014 at 12:44 pm
It looks like the number of western fighters available to air forces is going to shrink soon.
F/A-18 inc Growler
Boeing is reported to be in a position where it needs to order long lead components in the next month to assure continued production. There are, however, no orders to cover these long lead items. Boeing is already working on reducing the production rate to buy more time for possible extra US orders.
So… will US politicians take up the cause urgently by rushing through a decision to order some more aircraft? If they don’t prospects for orders from Malaysia and Denmark look bleak.
The St. Louis production line for Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers is slated to shut down after 2016 unless the Pentagon’s No. 2 supplier wins additional U.S. or foreign orders for the planes soo
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-may-slow-f-18-plane-output-keep-185324261–sector.html
F-16
Lockheed has dramatically scaled back production of the F-16 at its sprawling facility in Fort Worth, Texas, to about one plane a month now – from a peak production rate of 30 planes a month in June 1987, said spokesman Mark Johnson.
The article from December 2013 mentions that there was 1 aircraft for Egypt being built, 12 for Oman and 36 for Iraq. I do not see how a plant can reduce output from 30 a month to 1 a month without an increase in the cost of producing each aircraft, jeopardising the chance of any further orders.
So… it looks like F-16 will not be available much longer.
Typhoon
IIRC production will end 2017/2018 unless further orders are forthcoming. Allowing 2 years for long lead items, that would mean further orders needing to be placed within 18 months or so. Fortunately Saudi Arabia may order more within that time frame.
Otherwise… Typhoon may not be available much longer.
All in all it seems likely that by 2018 the number of western fighter candidates for orders will drop from 6 to 3: F-35, Gripen E and Rafale. That would not be so interesting. Would be good news for Dassault and SAAB, though – no similar competitor to have to compete with on price.