Could China overwhelm and invade Taiwan????

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 06-08-02 AT 03:33 PM (GMT)]TAIPEI, Aug 6 (AFP) – 08:06 GMT – The Taiwanese armed forces could repel a direct invasion of the island by Chinese forces backed by air power, but China’s growing missile capability is causing alarm, analysts say.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could launch intensive ballistic missile strikes on Taiwan followed by a naval blockade backed by high-tech weaponry including even a low-yield nuclear device, they said.

Experts believe a straightforward Chinese invasion is increasingly unlikely as Beijing would fear very high casualties.

“Time-consuming, lengthy and bloody air combat, sea engagement and an amphibious assault on Taiwan will be less likely to happen in the near future,” said Chung Chien, professor of Taiwan’s National Tsing Hua University.

Beijing would be doomed to failure if a PLA invasion failed to overcome Taiwanese forces and occupy the island within a week, he said.

“Either the United States or Japan or both would definitely gain ample time to stop the unfinished invasion,” Chung said.

According to a recent Pentagon report, Taiwan’s air force and navy still have edge over their Chinese counterparts, but the edge is swiftly being eroded.

China is arming itself with advanced Russian fighter jets, Kilo-class submarines and Sovremenny destroyers, all which would be effective in a naval blockade of Taiwan, the report said.

According to figures compiled by Western experts, China has 2.3 million active troops and 600,000 reserves, far outstripping 370,000 active soldiers and 1.7 million reserves in Taiwan.

It is believed the PLA would first fire hundreds of ballistic missiles in an attempt to paralyze the island’s military communications and command systems.

Concern over China’s growing missile arsenal was raised again this week by a senior Taiwanese air force officer.

“The Chinese Communists have declined to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, and they are also deploying a massive volume of M-class (Dongfeng) ballistic missiles and advanced fighters in their area facing Taiwan,” said Major General Peng Chin-ming.

“This really deserves our alarm,” he added.

Taiwan defense ministry estimates the PLA has deployed some 350 DF-11 and DF-15 missiles targeting Taiwan, and by 2005 the number will increase to around 600.

To counter the threat, Taiwan has 200 US-made Patriot missiles to protect its capital, and is planning to purchase more to shield the other parts of the island.

A comprehensive PLA naval blockade of Taiwan, by submarines and the laying of underwater mines off the island’s major ports, could be adopted to suffocate the island’s economy.

In an attempt to counter any possible blockade, Washington in April 2001 approved the sale of eight diesel-electric submarines, 12 P-3C submarine-hunting aircraft and four Kidd-class destroyers to Taiwan.

Professor Chung said the PLA could even turn to a limited nuclear strike — a low-yield nuclear electric magnetic pulse detonated high in the stratosphere above Taiwan with the aim of destroying wireless and electronic communications.

A “clean” nuclear EMP attack could avoid heavy loss of life, said Chung.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/afp/defense/020806080609.xr70akmm.html