Financial Times (London,England), September 22, 2003
By PETER SPIEGEL and DOUGLAS WONG
In its 35-year history the Singapore air force has never fired its guns in
anger.
The only time in recent memory that its ageing A-4 Super Skyhawks were
scrambled was last month, when an unidentified aircraft wandered into its
airspace. It turned out to be a wheelchair-bound Portuguese pilot in a
Beechcraft flying solo round the world.
But despite the Singapore military’s relative inexperience and small size,
the eyes of every large tactical-fighter maker will be on it for the next week,
when its weapons procurement agency is expected to decide on the three finalists
to replace the 40 Skyhawks. The air force also operates a squadron of Lockheed
F-16s.
The number of warplanes Singapore is buying is small: 10 at first, with
another 10 promised later. The decision, already delayed for six months, could
be pushed back again.
But because of the competition’s timing – just as Lockheed Martin is building
test versions of the potentially export-dominating Joint Strike Fighter (JSF),
due to enter service early in the next decade – and the reputation of Singapore
‘s procurement officials, the contest has taken on disproportionate
significance. It could drastically affect many of the companies involved.
Richard Aboulafia, a consultant with Washington-based Teal Group, said: “With
Poland and South Korea gone, this is the last great pre-JSF hope.” The
importance of the contract for the world’s defence giants was demonstrated this
month when the Singapore air force celebrated its 35th anniversary. Four of the
five companies in the running descended on the island. Sukhoi, the revitalised
Russian stalwart, was the only one not to show.
Much of the intensity is due to Singapore’s reputation as a “reference
customer”, one of a handful of countries that carry weight because of the
stringency and transparency of their procurement process.
“These guys mean it,” said Mr Aboulafia. “There are no shenanigans. They’re
not buying these for toys or because the military has political power.”
Situated between unstable Indonesia and authoritarian Malaysia – with China
looming large nearby – Singapore takes its defence seriously.
For companies with a new aircraft to market, winning the Singapore contract
would be a huge boost in the eyes of other countries that may soon upgrade their
air forces, such as Kuwait, Australia and Switzerland.
Among the new aircraft is Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, Dassault Aviation’s
Rafale and the Eurofighter – produced by a pan-European consortium from the UK,
Germany, Italy and Spain.
The company with the most at stake is Dassault, whose Rafale was developed
after France quit the Eurofighter programme in the 1980s. Rafale has lost every
competition it has been in. It was a finalist in the two biggest fighter
contracts of recent times – Poland and South Korea. In the latter it accused
officials of rigging the competition for the winner, Boeing. Dassault now risks
finding France – which may have to cut spending – as its only customer.
Exports historically account for two-thirds of French warplane makers’ sales.
Failure to sell the Rafale abroad would drive costs up for France and imperil
the programme.
Sash Tusa at Goldman Sachs said: “Eurofighter has already started to win
export competitions, and has a large domestic base with the four partner
countries. Rafale has got nothing.”
Although the Eurofighter programme is not in such dire straits – having
recently agreed the sale of 18 aircraft to Austria for Euros 1.9bn (Dollars
2.15bn) and hoping to finalise an even bigger sale to Greece – a win in
Singapore would prove its credibility outside Europe. It would also give it a
huge boost for the next decade, during which the JSF – which promises
significant technological features, including much-prized stealth technology –
will still be moving slowly into full production.
If the whispers around air shows are to be believed, Eurofighter has already
made it into the final three, along with two of the three aircraft being offered
by US companies.
Of these, Boeing is bidding with its F-15, the US air force’s premier
fighter, along with the F/A-18, while Lockheed is pitching its F-16, already the
most successfully exported jet fighter in history.
In the end, the smart money is on the Americans, largely because Singapore
already has F-16s and has signed up as a participant in the JSF programme, an
indication that it is looking for a transitional fighter rather than an entirely
new line.
Besides, notes Mr Aboulafia, the umbrella of US security still casts a long
shadow: “If Singapore gets in trouble, they know no one else is going to send
their navy in to help out.”
Additional reporting by Douglas Wong in Singapore
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IMO i would like to see the EF2000 strengthen its position and gain the Singapore tender. Malaysia & China will field over 150 SU-30MK variants jets by the end of the decade…..so with that said but back to reality….yanks are gonna win it! 🙂
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September 23, 2003 at 5:23 pm