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Did I make an error of judgement???

I know we have spoken of this before, there are a couple of other threads concerning the violence in the mid-East. I’d like to try to avoid a flame-war as best as possible with this thread, but it seems likely that if people do reply to this thread and get involved with other replies it is inevitable, so to the Web-master and to you all I’d like to apologise in advance.
I was watching the BBC on the 4th April about the Israeli movement into pretty much all of Palestine and reports of fighting along the Lebanese border involving IDF artillery and Hezbollah (sorry if that is spelt wrong) forces. If this continues to carry on and Israel is determined to secure its territory from attack, what are the chances of Israel moving into Lebanon? It won’t be the first time and as the old saying goes “History always repeats itself!”
If Israel does move into Lebanon, could this provoke an all out war with the Lebanese Armed Forces or even a response from Syria? Egypt has reportedly cut its ties with Israel (don’t ask me about who said it – I’m hopeless with politicans names) and judging by the riots in Jordan and Egypt I am a little concerned. In previous threads I said that no nation in the region could match Israel, and I stick by this, but that doesn’t rule out the possibilty of war given the current climate. The BBC also made mention of a possible Iraqi attack on Israel via terrorism. What was suggested is that Iraq could supply a small amount of some type of nerve gas to a Palestinian group, using suicide bombers as a means of attack. Israel has warned Iraq that ANY attack on Israel will be met with an appropriate response (a possible nuclear strike on Baghdad was also mentioned by the BBC).
If the saying is true and history does repeat itself, and I hope to God it doesn’t, what a mess this could turn out to be!

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By: Flanker112 - 6th April 2002 at 11:44

RE: Did I make an error of judgement???

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 06-04-02 AT 11:45 AM (GMT)]Yes, I agree with what you said about Saddam being reluctant to attack Israel, but that may not be the end of him. Regardless of what the West makes of his leadership, to other Arabs who are fed up with US support for Israel and US sanctions against various nations in the region causing famine and strife Saddam is a “hero”. US threats against Iraq only increase his support, not weaken it as intended. If Iraq was to attack Israel and the US and IDF responded with direct action against him, this would further increase anti-US sentiment in the region. Does the US or Israel really want this? This is the same reason the US wants to capture Osama Bin Laden instead of just killing him on sight. Can we really risk removing Saddam and causing widespread rioting in Saudi (possibly leading to an event similar to the Iranian Revolution)?

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By: mongu - 6th April 2002 at 11:34

RE: Did I make an error of judgement???

Don’t be so gloomy.

Iraq will not act against Israel.

The consequences are chilling; Saddam is holding onto power right now but a concerted US/Israeli attack would finish him.

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By: Dazza - 5th April 2002 at 20:05

RE: Did I make an error of judgement???

Flanker112, I think you’re right in your assertion that no single Middle East nation is a match for Israel military wise, but with the growing tension in the region, if they were to form an alliance what then? I hope it is all brought to a peaceful resolution soon, but I’m sorry to say I’m sceptical.
Regards, Dazza.

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