Haven’t posted in a while because of work. However as I am home and virtually incapacitated due to a pinched nerve in my nexk I thought I’d bore you lot with some random thoughts I’ve had on various airforces.
Evolution versus Revolution: The Potential Decline of US Airpower
The US has currently embarked on several revolutionary projects which are at various states of fuition. This includes the F-22, F-35, F/A-18E/F, V-22 etc and others. These projects for the most part are revolutionary in that they bring massive increases to capability.
However in spite of this, US aircraft are for the most part ancient. For example while the MV-22 is meant to be a quantum leap in capability, in reality the Marines are still relying on the same old rust bucket CH-46’s they were using in Vietnam.
Similarly the US tanker fleet is still dominated by the KC-135 and most fighters in US service were acquired in the 1980’s and early 90’s.
The new revolutionary aircraft spend a lot of time as either paper planes or as prototypes, while the warfighting is still being carried out by old airframes.
And even when the new revolutionary aircraft enter service they are entering service in much smaller numbers than required. Looking at the F-22, the airforce has maintained it needs 380 odd airframes but are only getting 180.
One could argue that a single F-22 does the job of 2 or 3 F-15,s’ but the truth of the matter is that these smaller quantities don’t allow much scope for normal attrition, multiple deployments or maintenance reserves. It also means that aircraft will be worn out quicker due to increased usage.
The one program that has avoided this to an extent is the F/A-18E/F. This aircraft may be disliked by aviation enthusiasts, but the truth of the matter it is an evolutionary design that entered squadron service relatively quickly and is set to become the backbone of the USN. Compare the time it took to design, fly and introduce the F/A-18E/F to service with that of the F-22.
My point here is that it might be better to acquire aircraft that are slightly more capable than those in serive now or are at least newer. I am sure that the Marines would be much better off with a new helicopter that offers some advantages over the CH-46 than continue flying ancient aircraft with the promise of a brand new wonder aircraft.
By the way, the same applies to European airforces. The A400M for example may be a wonderful aircraft in theory but in reality European transport requirements are being met by decades old C-130’s and C-160’s as well as leased out An-124’s.
Japanese Self Defence Forces: Increasingly irrelevant?
The Japanese Self Defence Forces seem to be sliding into even more irrelevance than before, despite strong regional military buildups. The F-2 is a failure and a new aircraft won’t enter service for some time. If the AH-64 procurement is anything to go by, then only small numbers of new fighters will be acquired. A total of 13 AH-64’s are being acquired to replace about 90 AH-1’s. This in an age where more and more countries are building up their attack helo fleets.
Pakistani Air Force: Parity with India?
It would appear ot me that Pakistan is finally getting a measure of parity with the Indian airforce. The PAF is acquiring additional F-16’s which will potentially bring the fleet up to 96 aircraft. The PAF is also set to receive 150 JF-17’s and 36 J-10’s. India on the other hand is struggling to replace older aircraft that are being retired (i.e. MiG-21FL/M, MiG-23). I seriously doubt that the LCA will enter service any time soon.
An interesting point is that most of the aircraft operated by both side are unproven. The JF-17 and F-10 are unknown quantities. The upgraded MiG-21’s of the Indian Airforce are also an unknown quantity as are the TVC Su-30MKI. We can all theorise given available statistics but these aircraft are unproven in terms of real combat experience.
I also think that the Indian airforce is hindered by the MiG-29. This aircraft has been proven to be useless in modern combat in 3 wars (Iraq 1991, Kosovo, Eritrea-Ethiopia). India’s MiG-29’s are basic 1980’s models without all the bells and whistles of the SMT or other upgraded versions and I think they’d be easy prey for PAF F-16’s. I know India is meant to be upgrading them but to what level?
NATO Airpower Disposition and the Rearmament of Russia
It’s strange but NATO’s Eastern flank is very poorly guarded indeed. Most of the new Eastern European members have token airforces, whose value in a real fight would be negligible. Only Poland has maintained any level of capability and I suspect even here the the size of their airforce will drop as MiG-29’s and Su-22’s reach the ends of their lives early next decade.
And meanwhile Russia has started rearming. Now I’m not saying that the Ruskis will send legions of T-90’s hurtling across Europe. However there is the potential for conflict here. Putin’s attitude to capitalism and true democracy are questionable. And there are issues with the Ukraine and many other ex-Soviet states that could cause tension between the West and Russia.
It seems the Eastern European members of NATO are more of of a liability than anything else. I doubt Hungary or Czech Republic would last a single day if attacked.
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October 25, 2006 at 7:51 am