I find myself wondering how the worldwide “economic crisis” will affect the manufacturers.
On the one hand, one would tend to believe that a new focus on efficiency will help them sell newer, more efficient airplanes. The A380 has the lowest seat mile costs, for example. The airplanes in the pipeline that are not here yet, the 787 and 350, should have huge efficiency improvements when they finally get here. Then again, by the time they arrive in significant numbers this “crisis” could be over. Remember how quickly Y2K, the Asian crisis/SARS, and even the downturn from 9/11 passed?
On the other hand, if a true, worldwide economic slowdown occurs, passenger numbers might decrease rapidly, putting extreme pressure on low cost carriers (the can’t make much money unless loads are very high), and also on big airplanes like the 380 and 748, because they will be hard to fill. What would happen to the 380 if the “bubble economy” in the “modern” middle eastern countries pops?
Perhaps commercial aviation is such an important aspect to our modern world economy on so many levels, that it will all just be propped up endlessly, a la fannie mae and freddie mac and the banking industry essentially being nationalized in the U.S.?
By: Ship 741 - 13th January 2009 at 14:44
About 3 months have passed since my original post, things appear to be deteriorating further…..
Airbus studies A320 production rate cuts here:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/aw011209p3.xml&headline=Airbus%20Considers%20Cutting%20A320%20Production%20Rate&channel=awst
ANA drops plans (at least for now) to buy A380 here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST35838520090105
Boeing slashing 4500 jobs here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNF8U_Y4P5Yc&refer=home
IMHO, the A380 program is really being hurt, their delay pushed them right into the economic downturn. No major new orders have been announced for some time now, and the break-even point is being pushed further and further into the future.
Perhaps Boeing is “lucky” that the 787 delay is occurring now, maybe by the time certification is complete and production is finally ready to spool up the economic downturn will be over. (Yes, I know the production is sold out for several years, but you can’t deliver jets to non-existent airlines.) The real question is how far and how deep the trough will be.
By: Arabella-Cox - 16th October 2008 at 17:31
I think the sudden economic plunge for the airline industry has leveled off preety much. Fuel prices have stopped climbing and in some areas begun to decrease. The only problem that remains is the economic crisis, which is predicted to be over before 2012. No big airlines have been experiencing any major problems since XL went last month. That seems to suggest that the problems we had over the past 12 months are not getting considerably worse.
There’s my optimistic opinion. 😀
By: chester - 16th October 2008 at 16:35
well Airbus in Broughton seem to be doing ok as they are still taking on.
By: sekant - 16th October 2008 at 12:26
Fact of the matter is, if no company seem to have cancelled order at this stage (except those that went bust obviously), several companies have already asked for deliveries to be postponed a couple of years down the line. Don’t know about Boeing, but several airlines have already made such requests to Airbus.
By: Ship 741 - 16th October 2008 at 11:36
looks like it’s already affecting them:
By: old shape - 15th October 2008 at 13:31
I find myself wondering how the worldwide “economic crisis” will affect the manufacturers.
On the one hand, one would tend to believe that a new focus on efficiency will help them sell newer, more efficient airplanes. The A380 has the lowest seat mile costs, for example. The airplanes in the pipeline that are not here yet, the 787 and 350, should have huge efficiency improvements when they finally get here. Then again, by the time they arrive in significant numbers this “crisis” could be over. Remember how quickly Y2K, the Asian crisis/SARS, and even the downturn from 9/11 passed?
On the other hand, if a true, worldwide economic slowdown occurs, passenger numbers might decrease rapidly, putting extreme pressure on low cost carriers (the can’t make much money unless loads are very high), and also on big airplanes like the 380 and 748, because they will be hard to fill. What would happen to the 380 if the “bubble economy” in the “modern” middle eastern countries pops?
Perhaps commercial aviation is such an important aspect to our modern world economy on so many levels, that it will all just be propped up endlessly, a la fannie mae and freddie mac and the banking industry essentially being nationalized in the U.S.?
The long term view prevails. Designs and plans for airliners and biz jets is as healthy as ever. Planned production quantities have not suffered on future projects. Yet.
There is an air of caution though, companies are looking to curtail contracts with unfavoured suppliers and blaming it on the E-crash. But, most contracts don’t allow such an easy get-out clause.
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October 15, 2008 at 1:15 pm