Eurasian NATO on the make?

LAST EDITED ON 02-Nov-00 AT 01:48 PM (GMT)[p]Russia has just signed a deal with its five partners in the Collective Security Treaty to guarantee the supply of weapons, but the agreement could also see the creation of a Central Asian version of NATO. An earlier deal saw the creation of a regional economic community. A JID regional analyst assesses the implications.

At a meeting which took place on 11 October at Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, the presidents of the six member states which are signatories to the Collective Security Treaty (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan) agreed to lift barriers to the supply of Russian military hardware amongst all member states. In return, Russia will offer low pricing. However, some regional analysts consider that this will merely be the first step towards the creation of what might eventually develop into a Eurasian form of NATO.

Having signed up to the pact, the member states have tasked their general staffs to prepare proposals for a collective security force. Discussions are also taking place on proposals for closer co-operation between the member states’ security services, as well as between their law enforcement agencies. The issue of combating the narcotics trade has also been high on the agenda for the participating states, while there is concern over the export of Islamic extremism, particularly from Taleban-controlled Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, there is still some way to go before there is the realistic prospect of a NATO-style deployment of troops in any of the republics involved. Earlier this year, a number of joint military exercises took place, code-named The Southern Shield of the Commonwealth, but the consent of the respective national parliaments would still be required before any cross-border troop movement could take place.

According to the text of the new agreement, the tasks of a multi-national military force would include “jointly repelling a foreign military aggression and carrying out joint counter-terrorism operations”. It also makes clear that “the bringing in and withdrawal of armaments and other military hardware… shall be made on a priority basis… and no duties, taxes and other collections shall be necessary.”

The original Collective Security Treaty which laid the foundations for the latest deal was signed in Tashkent in May 1992 and entered into force in 1994. It expired in 1999 and three founder members – Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan – withdrew at that time.
There has also been significant movement on the economic front. A day earlier in Astana, Kazakstan, the five Eurasian presidents signed an agreement to create a Eurasian Economic Community, loosely modelled on the EU. However, few concrete details have yet emerged about what the proposed economic integration might actually involve.

The real significance of these moves, however, is that Russia under President Vladimir Putin is concentrating its efforts on reviving Russian influence in what is colloquially called the ‘near abroad’ – in other words, its own backyard. As with recent moves to consolidate Russian interests in the Caspian Sea, Putin’s principal aims are to ensure Russian economic dominance of the region. The recent agreement will also enable Russia to increase sales of armaments and to monitor terrorist activity – particularly Islamic extremists who might have links to Chechen separatists.

Taking this and Russia’s close strategic partnerships with India and China could we eventually see a multi-polar world with NATO on one side and Russia/China/India on the other? If so (I personally am not sure this will happen), who will be stronger? Will it lead to “cold war” style confrontation or worse to all out war? Who would win were this to be the case?

All opinions welcome.