THE high dollar is expected to slash inbound tourism growth this year and isdealing a blow to the domestic industry by underpinning a strong rise in the number of Australians heading overseas.
But lower airfares and moderating exchange rates should see inbound tourism growth bounce back over the longer term, a new forecast predicts.
The high dollar has prompted the Tourism Forecasting Committee to lower its growth estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to 3.7 per cent for 2007 and cut its predicted growth until 2016 from 4.9 per cent annually to 4.7 per cent.
This means 5.7 million tourists are expected to visit Australia this year, while the value in real terms of tourist visits will rise from $22 billion last year to $35 billion in 2016. But the committee is forecasting a brighter outlook next year as airlines start to receive new planes and the extra seats boost fare competition.
“In 2008 and beyond, arrivals are forecast to grow more strongly with international aviation capacity and a return of the Australian dollar to levels comparable with its long-term average improving the competitiveness of travel to Australia,” TFC chairman Bernard Salt said.
Mr Salt predicts that outbound tourism will continue to grow at a stronger rate than domestic tourism, given the increasing desire of Australians to travel overseas and the overall expansion in international aviation capacity from late2009.
He estimates outbound departures will grow at an annual rate of 5.2 per cent until 2016 to reach 8.2 million.
Aviation is also expected to play an important role in the domestic tourism market as Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin add planes, while Tiger makes inroads into the market.
Mr Salt said the expansion in domestic aviation capacity from next year was expected to place downward pressure on fares and stimulate travel growth.
“This is expected to support an increase in tourism trips at the expense of lowering average nights per trip as some travellers switch from ground to air transport,” he said. “As a result, after rising by 1.3 per cent to 289 million in 2007, domestic visitor nights are forecast to decline by 2per cent in 2008 and by a further 3 per cent to reach 275million in 2009.
“Beyond 2009, domestic visitor nights are forecast to rise modestly to reach 282 million in 2016.”
The forecast comes as the dollar has been hit by financial market fears that the shock waves from the US housing crisis will hit China harder than first thought.
Any economic slowdown will be a worry for airlines and a falling dollar tends to be a net negative for them.
But there are some pluses in terms of inbound tourism.
Jetstar’s Japanese routes were badly hit by the dollar’s strength against the yen and it is hoping a weaker dollar will boost inbound tourism from the market.
The airline estimates that every oneyen change in the exchange rate isworth about $3 million to its bottomline.
Source: The Australian
By: wawkrk - 27th November 2007 at 13:49
A big surprise to me that good old traveller’s cheques are still around.
I thought they were finished with.
In the good old day’s Thomas Cook and American Express were the favourites.
These days you just put the debit or credit card in the bankomat and out pops the local currency at lower cost.
By: bri - 27th November 2007 at 10:37
Steve, perhaps you could do something about improving the use of traveller’s cheques in Oz?
On a visit to Q’ld a few years ago, some banks wouldn’t change them and others charged very high prices.
My Aussie relatives thought it was ridiculous and not much good for Oz tourism.
Bri 🙂
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November 27, 2007 at 1:17 am