France to donate 2 TCDs to Argentina

The Ouragan and Orage will arrive Buenos Aires in March of 2006.

One will be in service with the other to serve as a source of spare parts.

You talk about the equipment while ignoring the political realities when discussing a “possible” invasion, so ok, reality check folks: In 1982, Argentina was controlled by a military dictatorship. The loss of the war directly lead to their downfall, it is now a functional democracy. .

Please, don´t drag the topic away. That said, I would like to state the following: Rivers of ink have been wasted over the years on this particular theory. It does not hold water, though. It could be argued that an argie “victory” (that is a military victory, i.e. preventing the Task Force from retaking the islands or a political victory, i.e. keeping the island without having to fight for it, as it was intended in the first place) could (and I stress “could”) have let to a longer (prolonged) period of military dictatorship.
The statement that “The loss of the war directly lead to their downfall” is completely ignorant of the political situation in Argentina, in South America and specially of the White House towards South America at the time.
The loss of the war let to the replacement of General Galtieri, the same way (and excuse my frivolity for using such a banal example) a football coach yields his place when the team doesn´t make the qualification for the World Cup. Galtieris replacement “ruled” the country for another year and a half (out of 7 seven years total of military dictatorship). I have heard of no country so far which quitted playing football after a poor performance in the World Cup.

And to be honest, people got back to their usual bussines only weeks after the argie defeat on the islands. Veterans (both professional army and conscripts) where hidden from the public eye, and by 1983 NOBODY even remembered MALVINAS.
I have said it before and I repeat it here: what let to the downfall of the military regime was the rapidly deteroriating economy and the shifted attitude of the White House towards ALL South American military regimes. Most military regimes in SA, which did not loose any war against the UK, reintroduced elections about the same year as Argentina did.

So, speacking of wet dreams, I hate to bring you and the rest who think like you back to Earth, but the UK did not “defeat” Argentina back into the XXth century, or into democracy, for that instance. Ironically, the only SA country on the side of the UK got to enjoy another ten years of Pinochos regime.

They will never make the same mistake of invasion again

As of that, I agree that in 1982 the invasion was both a political and a military mistake. And I also agree that the political mistake will not be commited again, but while “wet dreaming”, one can argue that the military mistakes would not be done again (i.e. both sides learned from their mistakes).

Likewise the British will never make the same mistakes again, which is evident by the detatchment of Tornados and military presence on the islands. It was obvious weeks and months before the invasion happened, that the Argentinians were building up – the British didnt respond, they didnt believe there was a real threat of invasion. Do you honestly think that will happen again? The merest hint of a military build up will lead to the implementation of a massive plan to get even stronger defences in place.

Fortress Falkland was a the time a “political sign” geared foremost to the british public opinion. Maggy´s way of saying “we went, we saw, we won”. In the meanwhile, it has become meaningless, IMHO. And I agree again, the Foreign Office did a very poor crisis management, or did they have some masterplan in mind, while letting events evolve rapidly and out of control? Just a thought.

So stop your wet dreaming

Nuff said.

King Jester

You talk about the equipment while ignoring the political realities when discussing a “possible” invasion, so ok, reality check folks: In 1982, Argentina was controlled by a military dictatorship. The loss of the war directly lead to their downfall, it is now a functional democracy. They will never make the same mistake of invasion again.

Likewise the British will never make the same mistakes again, which is evident by the detatchment of Tornados and military presence on the islands. It was obvious weeks and months before the invasion happened, that the Argentinians were building up – the British didnt respond, they didnt believe there was a real threat of invasion. Do you honestly think that will happen again? The merest hint of a military build up will lead to the implementation of a massive plan to get even stronger defences in place.

So stop your wet dreaming

If Argentina decides to take back the Falklands, it sure as heck better do it before the F35 and the future RN carriers make it into service… or else they’re screwed in my opinion.

Nic

I agree, though I also like to add that many mistakes of 1982 would not be done again. So much I would say bout that, as I´m not fond of “what if” games, at least not the ones dealing with future, unlikely events. I do like, though, to theorize about “what ifs” in hindsight, that is “what if” in 1982 this and that…and so on.

I don´t grasp exactly if you mean that being a good or a bad thing to happen. Anyway, fact is oil exploration is stepping up at a very, very, very fast pace. Argentina has recently set out for auction two vast areas for gas and oil drilling on her own EEZ, and “kelpies” have done the same a couple of years ago round the islands (even on areas set unilaterally to overlap Argentinas EEZ, IRCC), which if I´m not mistaken Shell decided at the time were worth nearly 1.000 mil US$. Would have to dig up the news of that period, to see what exact figure I retrieve, but it was in that order of magnitude.

King Jester

Edited for clarity.

Fair play, I would agree with the unlikely nature of the whole situation. But I would argue that even the small deployed garrison on the Falklands would be a serious problem for the Argentine armed forces. Its really a circular issue as I said before Argentina just can’t afford and are ill equipped for any adventures these days.

Looking back in hindsight if Argentina had been able to put things off till 1984 I think the situation would of played out very differently.

I agree, though I also like to add that many mistakes of 1982 would not be done again. So much I would say bout that, as I´m not fond of “what if” games, at least not the ones dealing with future, unlikely events. I do like, though, to theorize about “what ifs” in hindsight, that is “what if” in 1982 this and that…and so on.

Good point, I would hate to see a second Falkland’s war too and I’m hopeful it will not happen but I’m certain that Argentina would be very unlikely to make the same mistakes they made in 1982.

For the Falklands / Malvinas just one question – are they worth the years of that sanctions that would follow a military solution ? The answer is no.

The French ships are excellent solutions for peace keeping support and disaster relief operations. Do not need large ports, can carry helicopters.

But more than adequate for deterrance of any move by Argentina, I seriously doubt that Argentina could put Ascension Island out of comission!

It’s adequate for the current situation only, Argentina isn’t in a position to seriously threaten the islands at the moment.

If Argentina did try retaking the Falkland’s in the future they would have to disrupt operations from Ascension Island.

The point being?

It still doesn’t change the fact that Argentiana is seriously overmatched when it comes to comparing her armed forces to the [edit: potentially deployable]defences on the Falkland Islands..

I agree, though I also like to add that many mistakes of 1982 would not be done again. So much I would say bout that, as I´m not fond of “what if” games, at least not the ones dealing with future, unlikely events. I do like, though, to theorize about “what ifs” in hindsight, that is “what if” in 1982 this and that…and so on.

More importantly as far as I am aware oil exploration in the area is in its early stages

I don´t grasp exactly if you mean that being a good or a bad thing to happen. Anyway, fact is oil exploration is stepping up at a very, very, very fast pace. Argentina has recently set out for auction two vast areas for gas and oil drilling on her own EEZ, and “kelpies” have done the same a couple of years ago round the islands (even on areas set unilaterally to overlap Argentinas EEZ, IRCC), which if I´m not mistaken Shell decided at the time were worth nearly 1.000 mil US$. Would have to dig up the news of that period, to see what exact figure I retrieve, but it was in that order of magnitude.

King Jester

Edited for clarity.

I thought those had been moved back to the UK.

As far as I am aware there still based on the Falklands.

Argentina is certainly in no way ready to attempt retaking the Falkland Islands, but the British defences are not that impressive either really, they are more of a token gesture than a serious capability.

http://www.raf.mod.uk/stations/os_base.html

http://www.army.mod.uk/aroundtheworld/flk/index.htm

Rapid reinforcement by air will only be possible if the Argentinian’s fail to take out the airfields on Ascension Island and the Falkland’s.

The 1982 Falkland’s invasion was a opportune political misadventure, any serious attempt by Argentina to retake the island’s is unlikely to make the same mistakes.

But more than adequate for deterrance of any move by Argentina, I seriously doubt that Argentina could put Ascension Island out of comission!

It still doesn’t change the fact that Argentiana is seriously overmatched when it comes to comparing her armed forces to the defences on the Falkland Islands.

Argentina is certainly in no way ready to attempt retaking the Falkland Islands, but the British defences are not that impressive either really, they are more of a token gesture than a serious capability.

http://www.raf.mod.uk/stations/os_base.html

Mount Pleasant, Falkland Islands

The most recent purpose-built airfield in the RAF, Mount Pleasant was opened in 1984 to establish a fighter and transport presence in the Islands following the Falklands War. Currently based at Mount Pleasant are No 1435 Flight with 4 Tornado F3s, No 1312 Flight, with a single VC10 tanker and 1 Hercules C1, as well as No 78 Squadron with Chinook and Sea King helicopters. Ground units include No 7, 303 and 751 Signals Units and a Rapier detachment from the RAF Regiment.

http://www.army.mod.uk/aroundtheworld/flk/index.htm

About 500 Army personnel are currently stationed on the Falkland Islands. They work within the following groups: an Infantry Company Group, an Engineer Squadron, a Signals Unit, a Logistics Group and Supporting Services. Over the years, the British forces have completed extensive reconstruction work. Further tasks of road building and clearing the Islands of munitions and debris have also been undertaken.

Rapid reinforcement by air will only be possible if the Argentinian’s fail to take out the airfields on Ascension Island and the Falkland’s.

The 1982 Falkland’s invasion was a opportune political misadventure, any serious attempt by Argentina to retake the island’s is unlikely to make the same mistakes.

The four Tornado F3s guided by the Radar based on the Island with support of the tanker have a massive radious of action.

I thought those had been moved back to the UK.

One word……

OIL

The point being?

It still doesn’t change the fact that Argentiana is seriously overmatched when it comes to comparing her armed forces to the defences on the Falkland Islands.

More importantly as far as I am aware oil exploration in the area is in its early stages.

One word……

OIL

Which, is why I consider a conflict between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands is remote at best………………… :rolleyes:

True, but there is the usual posturing and flag waving. No Argentinian politician wants to be labelled as a sell out and this makes a political solution equally unlikely. Status quo I guess.

You can certainly add CVF, JSF and Type45 to the equation.

But the UKs strategy is to avoid having to take back the Islands by sea but rather maintain a strong garrison supported by aircraft that can be reinforced quickly.

Considering that the amount the UK spends every year on defending the Falklands is larger then the entire annual Argentine Defence budget you should get an Idea of the Scale of problem that Argentina faces.

Oh well all you can say is….

Dont Cry for me Argentina

Which, is why I consider a conflict between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands is remote at best………………… :rolleyes:

Argentina just doesn’t have the resources available now or anytime in the near future…………………….and with the RN gaining the CVF’s, JSF’s, T-45’s, etc. etc. all within the next 10 years. That is even more unlikley………. :rolleyes: If, any solution happens. It will be political……… 😀

You can certainly add CVF, JSF and Type45 to the equation.

But the UKs strategy is to avoid having to take back the Islands by sea but rather maintain a strong garrison supported by aircraft that can be reinforced quickly.

Considering that the amount the UK spends every year on defending the Falklands is larger then the entire annual Argentine Defence budget you should get an Idea of the Scale of problem that Argentina faces.

Oh well all you can say is….

Dont Cry for me Argentina

Argentina just doesn’t have the resources available now or anytime in the near future…………………….and with the RN gaining the CVF’s, JSF’s, T-45’s, etc. etc. all within the next 10 years. That is even more unlikley………. :rolleyes: If, any solution happens. It will be political……… 😀

I hate to rain on peoples party but even if the Argentines were able to get Miraage 2000 with decent missiles it would still be very difficult for them to take the Falkland Islands.

British defences on the Island are focused on delaying any Argentine move and allowing enough time for reinforcements to be flown in. In effect it is a policy of deterrance.

The four Tornado F3s guided by the Radar based on the Island with support of the tanker have a massive radious of action. Combined with the fact that the RAF has a qualitive advantage when comes to the air to air armament of the F3s based at Mount Pleasent you can start to see the problems facing the Argentines.

And things get no better for the Argentines when you consider that the RAF are starting to recieve Typhoon which has an even better Radar and Air to Air Fit in the form of Captor and Meteor. I havent got the figures but when you factor that in, the Radious of action gets even larger. Even with tanker support and Mica the Miraage 2000 would be hard pressed against Amraam equipped Tornado with the advantages already listed. When you consider that by the time Argentina were able to induct Miraage 2000 the RAF will have an even greater technological advantage in the form of Typhoon with Meteor then you see there problems.

As already mentioned the Navy operates a TLAM equipped Nuclear Submarine in the area, this is a real issue for Argentina as they have not got a credible ASUW capability that can deal with this. Which leaves them a two fold problem, firstly they will not be able to offer adequate protection to any invasion force and secondly the TLAMS threaten their airfields and facilities on the main land.

To pull off an invasion of the Island the Argentines will need to overwhelm the defences with capeable fighters and use transport aircraft to land a sizeable amount of men and equipment before the UK could react. They would need to do all this whilst maintaining complete secrecy or the game would be up and the UK would reinforce the Island. All the equipment and men being prepared for action would be fairly obvious. The UK has most of the equipment required for the defence of the Island prepositioned on the Island already. If it looked like Argentina was going to make a move the RAF can fly troops down to the Falklands to match up with this equipment in hours. Troops wouldn’t be the only thing that would be flown down to support the Island. AWACS, Nimrod, GR4 Strike bombers equipped with Storm shaddow amongst other things and more fighter aircraft to bolster those already on the Island.

To pull this all off Argentina would need to instigate a massive equipment purchase program. They would need ships, Fighters, Transport Aircraft, Tankers and numerous other Items of equipment. It would not be something that could not be easily be hidden from the world and the UK government would certainly take notice of the situation and respond accordingly.

This leads onto another issue, Argentina is bankrupt! her armed forces in many respects are in a worse state then during 1982. Their economy could not support the kind of procurement program required. I would not be surprised if Argentina did procure Miraage 2000 but these will more then likely be second hand and no real match to anything in the RAFs inventory.

So to sum up…

1) The UK has a technological advantage.
2) It is unlikely Argentina will be able to afford the equipment to pull off an invasion.
3)The UK will more then likely have ample warning of any move by Argentina.
4) The Island will be reinforced to a degree that would be difficult to overwhelm.
5) With stand off land attack missiles the UK can seriously dissrupt Argentine Millitary facilities on the main land.