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July 9, 2004 at 10:18 pm

Friction between China and Japan to lead to war?

Lately, there has been friction over drilling platforms in the E. China Sea, and now the Japanese SDF White Paper explicitly lists concern over the rise of Chinese power. Will we see another potential conflict between the two asian nations in the next 10 years?

And to tie the air force into this, how much of a threat will the PLAAF pose to the JSDAF in ten years’ time?

Date Posted: 09-Jul-2004

JANE’S DEFENCE WEEKLY – JULY 14, 2004

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Japan urged to adopt a broader military role
SHINICHI KIYOTANI JDW Special Correspondent
Tokyo

Japan’s 2004 Defence White Paper calls for the Japanese Self-Defence Force (JSDF) to be transformed from its current invasion defence posture to a “more functional force” better able to deal with a range of threats such as terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles.

Publication of the 480-page document coincided with the 50th anniversary of the re-establishment of Japan’s armed forces after the Second World War. Since then the JSDF has been limited by the constitution to a purely defensive role and the question of a broader military role for Japan, such as the deployment of troops to Iraq earlier this year, continues to provoke controversy.

The White Paper states that Japan must be ready for such missions: “If a nation collapses after having been undermined by a dictatorship or an international terrorist organisation, it is the duty of the international community to assist in its reconstruction.”

Japan’s defence budget for the current Fiscal Year, ¥4.9 trillion ($44.47 billion), ranks it as the third-largest military spender behind the US and the UK but the paper notes that if an accurate figure could be established for China it would exceed Japanese spending.

“China has been modernising its nuclear and missile forces as well as its naval and air forces. Careful deliberation should go into determining whether the objective of this modernisation exceeds the scope necessary for the defence of China, and future developments in this area merit special attention,” says the paper.

It notes other threats in the region. “Taken together with its suspected nuclear weapons programme, North Korea’s develop- ment and deployment of ballistic missiles constitute a destabilising factor for the international community as a whole and have generated intense anxiety,” states the paper.

The White Paper says that the armed forces must be restructured to undertake “diversifying roles”. A sweeping review of the armed forces is planned for completion before year-end. “The SDF must establish a joint operational posture linking SDF units organically so that they carry out their missions swiftly and effectively,” states the White Paper.

The existing Joint Staff Council, which is limited primarily to policy matters, will be replaced by a joint staff that will also have a command function. The number of personnel will be increased from 350 to 650 so that it can function as an integrated triservice headquarters. The new headquarters, tentatively known as the Joint Staff Office, is planned to be operational in 2005.

With a shrinking defence budget, the White Paper notes that Japan will “modify the scale of its forces” but stresses they will be better equipped for a range of missions including international deployments.

The White Paper mentions a number of force enhancements already under way or planned:

* Development of ballistic missile defence capabilities;

* Introduction of a helicopter carrier with the capability to serve as a flagship. The design is still officially designated as a helicopter-carrying destroyer (DDH) and officials insist that it will only operate helicopters;

* Fielding of AH-64D Apache Longbows to replace the AH-1S attack helicopter;

* Acquisition of a new class of submarine equipped with an air- independent propulsion system;

* Introduction of the MCH-101 helicopter to replace the MH-53E in naval service;

* Modernisation of the F-15J fighter fleet;

* The introduction of precision- guided bombs including the US Joint Direct Attack Munition;

* Fielding of a new medium-range surface-to-air missile to replace the HAWK in army service;

* Improving the army’s nuclear, biological and chemical detection and warning capabilities; and

* Development of a fast patrol boat in co-operation with Japan’s Coast Guard.