Future of the 747

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 27-04-02 AT 05:47 PM (GMT)]From Buisness week:
The Asian Aerospace Show in Singapore on Febuary 26, Boeing introduced the new and improved 747X jumbo jet which would be quieter to meet European noise regulations and also would be able to go a greater range.

There is just one problem which puts the Queen of the Skies is very much in doubt.

Numbers tell the story-Boeing hasn’t sold a single 747 so far this year, and it sold just 16 in 2001. Of the plane’s 61-order backlog, 35 are for the freighter version a sign that permanent retirement may lurk around the corner for the 747.Weak sales have forced the company to cut the 747’s production rate by 50% — to two jets a month.

“Experience tells us that airplane programs end their lives as freighters,” says Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst for consultants Teal Group. “That appears to be the way the 747 is going.” Adds a senior executive for a large Asian carrier: “If nothing else happens, I don’t see very many orders for this airplane.”

Even a revamped 747 jetliner will struggle to find a new place among the larger trends and realities redefining commercial jet travel. The push for open global airways and more frequent nonstop flights is creating demand for smaller airplanes. Nowhere is that more evident than on flights across the North Atlantic, where just 10 years ago, the vast majority of travelers flew 747s. Today, smaller Boeing and Airbus Industrie jets rule flight paths across the pond.

For the second time in less than two years, Boeing is extending the 747’s range. One of the keys: trying to keep it competitive as Airbus develops the 555-seat A380, “The 747 is no longer in a unique market position, but it’s a tremendously viable product as a 400-seat passenger airplane,” says Jeff Peace, vice-president for Boeing’s 747 program. “I see a great long-term future.”

Boeing dropped plans to develop a 516-seat version of the 747 last year, focusing instead on a near-supersonic jet, the 250-seat Sonic Cruiser. However, Peace insists that demand still exists for the 747, too, and the company will continue improving it. For this year, “I would hope to see order numbers in the teens and 20s,” he says. “We’re trying to make that a realistic hope.”

The 747 is falling prey to other trends. Boeing’s own long-haul 777, a smaller plane, which seats about 360 people and is 18% more cost-effective on transoceanic flights, is cannibalizing 747 sales. Large 747 operators such as British Airways have been replacing their jumbo jets with 777s for some time.Japan Air Lines, which operates more than 100 of the big birds, has no jumbo jets on order — just 767s and long-range 777s. And other Asian customers may soon follow suit. “Boeing is pushing the 777 as an all-singing, all-dancing aircraft,” Aboulafia says. “The market seems to be favoring the mini-jumbos, which seat between 300 and 350 people.”
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Very interesting article,I would hope it has a future,though as they say all things come to an end if you consider the 707, 727 and DC-10 they are prime examples of this.