Future Warfare?

One thing that does amaze me is the Western focus on countering high end threats. The funny thing about those high end threats is that the only countries able to field high end threats are Western ones.

I suspect that one day when the uber expensive F-35 is the mainstay fighter bomber of Western airforces in the 2020s it’s main targets will continue to be low tech insurgents wielding 70+ year old AKs (yes some of the AKs found in Taliban hands are 1951 vintage), RPKs and RPGs as well as the universally beloved IED.

Whatever conventional opponents NATO is willing to take on will probably be equipped with the same old SA-2/-3/-6/-7 SAMs and hangar queen MiG-21/F-7s plus the odd monkey model MiG-29 (and if it’s Iran it’ll add 1970s vintage F-4/-5/-14) that of course get blasted on the ground whilst waiting for overhauls, fuel and parts that never come.

The other potential enemies (China, Russia) are still decades behind in electronics design as well as training (look at poor Russian performance in Georgia) and doctrine.

And in any case the West does not fight semi-capable opponents anymore – it’s only low lying fruit ala Libya.

The funny thing is that Western Air Forces will be numerically smaller than today due to high cost of F-35 and thus be unable to project as much power as before.

I think evolutionary designs might have been a better choice than revolutionary designs ala F-35. That way the West could’ve maintained numerical superiority as well as a technical edge.

A great example was the V-22 Osprey. Whilst it offered great potential, constant delays meant Marines were still using ancient CH-46s and still do to at least 2014.